TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well the pattern definitely changes... so if that's the benchmark we will exceed that. I want something exciting. At least immediately following a return to a more normal/chilly pattern it won't start snowing immediately lol/ I called for the pattern change complete right between 18th-24th, still ten days plus. I think those are reasonable first dates for coastal plain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12z euro holds onto the AO a bit more than the 00z...but it does develop a nice Pacific Rex Block by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Phil won't say it, but he knows what a polar high and possible weak lows moving underneath mean..lol. It's a good OES pattern. Three things will be done on this time off at home. I don't need snow necessarily at the house in Southie to be happy. (1.) OES chase on the cape. Not that long of a drive, and I know the cape like the back of my hand. Chasing will be easy as no one will be down there in January, (2.) Time a ski trip perfectly. need to be 100% sure on snow coming. Cant afford to waste any gas or ski money. (3.) upslope chase in NW VT. again, need to be 100% on upslope delivering big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Three things will be done on this time off at home. I don't need snow necessarily at the house in Southie to be happy. (1.) OES chase on the cape. Not that long of a drive, and I know the cape like the back of my hand. Chasing will be easy as no one will be down there in January, (2.) Time a ski trip perfectly. need to be 100% sure on snow coming. Cant afford to waste any gas or ski money. (3.) upslope chase in NW VT. again, need to be 100% on upslope delivering big time. It would take one hell of an event for me to chase OES...it's not nearly as intense as LES, but it's cool I suppose. Sometimes areas of PYM county are better when the wind is more nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It would take one hell of an event for me to chase OES...it's not nearly as intense as LES, but it's cool I suppose. Sometimes areas of PYM county are better when the wind is more nne. Well if there was 3-6" to fall and I was going to baltimore in three days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This is simply not true? Can you provide an example??? Looks to me that way for the last 3 major storms, that did or didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It would take one hell of an event for me to chase OES...it's not nearly as intense as LES, but it's cool I suppose. Sometimes areas of PYM county are better when the wind is more nne. yeah it might be once a decade that there's something really substantial that comes out of it. most of the time it's <4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So when the CMC and the Euro were in agreement on a storm for Sunday you were saying the same thing right? "Go with the suppressed gfs and toss the amped CMC and EURO" but now when the euro and cmc show a cutter you favor them.. lol, you guys are hilarious with going with your model wavering and non wintry solutions. Ill take my chances with the model that has been verifying better over the day 5-7 forecast range, the gfs No one is verifying well on 6 day storms but if you want GFS for beyond d5, have at it....it's as good as the others or better...but no one is very good. You're not getting snow from that storm but I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 So when the CMC and the Euro were in agreement on a storm for Sunday you were saying the same thing right? "Go with the suppressed gfs and toss the amped CMC and EURO" but now when the euro and cmc show a cutter you favor them.. lol, you guys are hilarious with going with your model wavering and non wintry solutions. Ill take my chances with the model that has been verifying better over the day 5-7 forecast range, the gfs Thank you very much, similar to what I said a page before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Here's a scenario...might be a long shot, but it's kind of hinted. If the PV can try and sit closer to Hudson Bay, it may be able to shoot s/w's around the base of the trough and give us some clippers or miller B stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Here's a scenario...might be a long shot, but it's kind of hinted. If the PV can try and sit closer to Hudson Bay, it may be able to shoot s/w's around the base of the trough and give us some clippers or miller B stuff. Well, theoretically that would make a lot of sense. The jet you speak of will be coming just south of us some of the time if you buy the modeled change. There has been some clipper action for Quebec this winter if I remember correctly. Move the entire pattern a couple hundred miles south and that would be overhead of us. I for one like Miller B's and clippers a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks to me that way for the last 3 major storms, that did or didn't happen. I'm thinking of the big Euro wound up low in an unusual track ...alone...verified about 10 days ago. What are the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 cold. Jack's bones just jumped out to look for you....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, theoretically that would make a lot of sense. The jet you speak of will be coming just south of us some of the time if you buy the modeled change. There has been some clipper action for Quebec this winter if I remember correctly. Move the entire pattern a couple hundred miles south and that would be overhead of us. I for one like Miller B's and clippers a lot. read Scotts post and was trying to remember the last great clipper and came up blank, any memories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Jack's bones just jumped out to look for you....lol... LOL. took me a while to figure out what you meant. actually he had given me permission a long time ago to repost his stuff...regardless, harmless every once a month or two, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 cold. The entire NA area is cold nice, throw a ST Jet in that, and Jerrys Ghost of 94 blows in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 read Scotts post and was trying to remember the last great clipper and came up blank, any memories? It was definitely my junior year... maybe 08/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 read Scotts post and was trying to remember the last great clipper and came up blank, any memories? no idea. seems to me, it's been a long time...but i don't record these events in my memory bank like some so there's probably something recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kutskova Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hey guys, hope you don't mind an OT question. i'll be going to the winter festival in quebec city in feb. will there be any winter to be found? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm thinking of the big Euro wound up low in an unusual track ...alone...verified about 10 days ago. What are the others? The three would be the Xmas storm, that didn't happen, and GFS supressed the entire time, this past Sunday's storm that the GFS had supressed and Euro had as a big snowstorm, and then this coming Wednesday storm that the GFS has been 2 steps ahead of the Euro, pending it it ends up tracking further to the east, which models are showing may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hey guys, hope you don't mind an OT question. i'll be going to the winter festival in quebec city in feb. will there be any winter to be found? Likely colder than now up there then. February is too far to guess for storm chances. However, the pattern we are heading to its more likely to be colder and snowier for you I'm guessing in Quebec City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The last real good system that came out of the Plains off the top of my head was Dec 31st 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Likely colder than now up there then. February is too far to guess for storm chances. However, the pattern we are heading to its more likely to be colder and snowier for you I'm guessing in Quebec City yea Feb in Quebec is pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The last real good system that came out of the Plains off the top of my head was Dec 31st 2008. good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 hey guys, hope you don't mind an OT question. i'll be going to the winter festival in quebec city in feb. will there be any winter to be found? What days specifically? I'll dial up a precise forecast for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, theoretically that would make a lot of sense. The jet you speak of will be coming just south of us some of the time if you buy the modeled change. There has been some clipper action for Quebec this winter if I remember correctly. Move the entire pattern a couple hundred miles south and that would be overhead of us. I for one like Miller B's and clippers a lot. x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The last real good system that came out of the Plains off the top of my head was Dec 31st 2008. nice, widespread 6-10 with high winds http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Dec_31_2008/Dec_31_2008_BOXPNS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 x2 Might be in Naples in a week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 good call. I might be missing one, but that was a storm that came right out of the nrn Plains and trended south in the last 72 hrs. It gave se mass 11" of snow. I think Max was a jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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