Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's our pattern changer and I'll embrace it. Hoping for overrunning snow within 5 days of that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 True. Steve said change in 10 days 50 days ago. As did LC And JB changed his mind a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Let's get through next week. With a +NAO and -EPO, I'm not overly concerned about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hr 204 looks interesting on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro D8 has the PV in Hudson's Bay....ala my favorite winter.. Whaaaa??? Talk to me... this for the 14-16th cold blast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 One interesting thing to look at is the fact that instead of the GFS following the Euro, The Euro has been more following the GFS with it's solutions for the last 3 weeks or month. Look at this system, Euro had a huge cutter for days, while the GFS brought it closer to the coast well before the Euro. Now the Euro, which may still be a rainstorm, is trending more towards the GFS solution. Same thing happened during the major Xmas storm that the Euro was hammering us with for days, when the GFS had nothing. Seems to me, that lately, the GFS has actually been quite accurate, and at least better than normal. I would put a little more faith in it right now. If this storm next week can slow down and deepen enough, of course with the main low jumping to the coast, it can grab some of the cold air that is heading east at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I would feel much more comfortable if someone is able to squeeze out a snowstorm next week before a rather tenuous pattern. If you look at the GEFS height anomalies the SE ridge is demolished for the day 11-15 period and likely beyond. Seems like a good thing at first, right? I think that argues for suppression and major fail on this pattern. If we can develop a solid gradient looking pattern then I think we could luck out but I don't think it's a lock. LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 euro illustrates how we could be/likely are waiting until the second half of the month to really get this established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Awesome graphics, what website did you pull them off? I'm working on a re-analysis project and stuff like that would be incredibly helpful. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Funny that the +PNA actually helped warm us in that pattern...it helped blowtorch sw and srn Canada. Haha yeah, it's true. Basically all indices were in a positive state ... all indicative of the high index annular mode through the month. Kinda neat when stuff makes sense like this haha Notice the +AAM anomalies sitting poleward of the -AAM anomalies through December... poleward shifted westerlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 D15 of the GEFS mean drops the AO into the tank. Wow. Suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Haha yeah, it's true. Basically all indices were in a positive state ... all indicative of the high index annular mode through the month. Kinda neat when stuff makes sense like this haha Notice the +AAM anomalies sitting poleward of the -AAM anomalies through December... poleward shifted westerlies Nice graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro D8 has the PV in Hudson's Bay....ala my favorite winter.. It's not done evolving yet. Gotta wait for the major trough to lift north and phase with all the PV energy floating around there, to get a stable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Awesome graphics, what website did you pull them off? I'm working on a re-analysis project and stuff like that would be incredibly helpful. TIA. Mr Hart http://hart.met.psu.edu/wx/narr/mapper.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 One interesting thing to look at is the fact that instead of the GFS following the Euro, The Euro has been more following the GFS with it's solutions for the last 3 weeks or month. Look at this system, Euro had a huge cutter for days, while the GFS brought it closer to the coast well before the Euro. Now the Euro, which may still be a rainstorm, is trending more towards the GFS solution. Same thing happened during the major Xmas storm that the Euro was hammering us with for days, when the GFS had nothing. Seems to me, that lately, the GFS has actually been quite accurate, and at least better than normal. I would put a little more faith in it right now. If this storm next week can slow down and deepen enough, of course with the main low jumping to the coast, it can grab some of the cold air that is heading east at the same time. This is simply not true? Can you provide an example??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 euro illustrates how we could be/likely are waiting until the second half of the month to really get this established. I'm thinking after MLK day and more towards the 20th, but it doesn't mean it will be warm after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro at D10 looks seasonable but pretty boring IMO moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nice graphic. My brain sees that one in latin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro at D10 looks seasonable but pretty boring IMO moving forward. You know we are looking for continued pattern change not a snowstorm within the next ten right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 WHy is nobody talking about the surpise mini snow event today???????????? Everyone is so wrapped up in the supposed pattern change that they have forgotten to look at radar or out the window........... enjoy the snow today folks!! Speed must be a fun drug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 In the end, Euro has similarities to the CMC. snowNH's GFS is likely taking a dump this run. So when the CMC and the Euro were in agreement on a storm for Sunday you were saying the same thing right? "Go with the suppressed gfs and toss the amped CMC and EURO" but now when the euro and cmc show a cutter you favor them.. lol, you guys are hilarious with going with your model wavering and non wintry solutions. Ill take my chances with the model that has been verifying better over the day 5-7 forecast range, the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 You know we are looking for continued pattern change not a snowstorm within the next ten right? Well the pattern definitely changes... so if that's the benchmark we will exceed that. I want something exciting. At least immediately following a return to a more normal/chilly pattern it won't start snowing immediately lol/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm thinking after MLK day and more towards the 20th, but it doesn't mean it will be warm after next weekend. yeah sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 <p> Euro at D10 looks seasonable but pretty boring IMO moving forward. Day 10 maps are always useful, if it was showing at 970 at the BM, would it be worth even mentioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 My brain sees that one in latin Notice how those yellows and oranges (westerlies) are slowly gaining latitude. So what does that mean? Well the westerlies are a dividing line of thermal contrast right? So if those rise poleward, that leaves us even further away from that contrast. That tells me the polar jet is very far north and is a reason why we have blow torched. It is also a reason why we have not seen any big storms. No baroclinicity means no fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well the pattern definitely changes... so if that's the benchmark we will exceed that. I want something exciting. At least immediately following a return to a more normal/chilly pattern it won't start snowing immediately lol/ Week of 1/16 will feature some accumulating snow. If not, futility record will be pursued. By 1/20, we're in the 6th inning, the pitcher still has a no no but he just walked the #9 hitter with no one out. Let's see what can be accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 By the way, those looking for some wintry precip at the beginning, Euro was a BIG step in the right direction. Like the GFS, it has the trough diving into the Plains staying positively tilted now, with higher SLP across southern Canada and the Great Lakes. The cutoff upper low is a little further south, and the associated surface low is better defined, sitting over MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Notice how those yellows and oranges (westerlies) are slowly gaining latitude. So what does that mean? Well the westerlies are a dividing line of thermal contrast right? So if those rise poleward, that leaves us even further away from that contrast. That tells me the polar jet is very far north and is a reason why we have blow torched. It is also a reason why we have not seen any big storms. No baroclinicity means no fuel. Definitely makes sense now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Phil won't say it, but he knows what a polar high and possible weak lows moving underneath mean..lol. It's a good OES pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 <p> Day 10 maps are always useful, if it was showing at 970 at the BM, would it be worth even mentioning? Bingo. There are some on here who seem to derive a sort of perverse glee from injecting contrarian negativity at every opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.