CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12z GGEM is sort of interesting for next week. Cuts the low off so far west you actually get a mainly snow storm for NNE followed by dry slot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm just saying that once we flip to a colder pattern snow is not a lock. I don't think suppression is the likely outcome in the long run... but at least after the rainstorm I think we are in a relatively quiet pattern. I'd rather run on the line with a strong 93-94-esque gradient pattern. That is not showing up in the 12z GEFS. Yeah I do see what you mean..it could happen...but I just think a -PNA and se ridge will be on the table, so I guess suppression isn't my worry in the long run. We may have to wait a few days after it turns cold for any real threat. Even look at the GEFS at hr 324. Notice they have a low into the Great Lakes, while it's cold verbatim. To me, that makes me think of clippers or SWFE. I don't really expect any wintry threat until after MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 AO not NAO. Either way it's certainly better than the crap we've had. that was a typo. but wouldn't the strong epo ridge argue teleconnect to a se ridge? A suppression pattern for us would have the PV way south pushing stuff out wouldn't it? Or a Rockies ridge that is so far east that the storm track is well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah I do see what you mean..it could happen...but I just think a -PNA and se ridge will be on the table, so I guess suppression isn't my worry in the long run. We may have to wait a few days after it turns cold for any real threat. Even look at the GEFS at hr 324. Notice they have a low into the Great Lakes, while it's cold verbatim. To me, that makes me think of clippers or SWFE. I don't really expect any wintry threat until after MLK weekend. agreed. I'd be more worried about suppression if the -NAO went significantly negative which doesn't appear likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah I do see what you mean..it could happen...but I just think a -PNA and se ridge will be on the table, so I guess suppression isn't my worry in the long run. We may have to wait a few days after it turns cold for any real threat. Even look at the GEFS at hr 324. Notice they have a low into the Great Lakes, while it's cold verbatim. To me, that makes me think of clippers or SWFE. I don't really expect any wintry threat until after MLK weekend. The GEFS flips the AO so far negative it eviscerates the SE ridge. -AO correlates most strongly with low heights over the MA and SE. Wouldn't that be something if we finally flip the AO and it's so substantial we screw ourselves lol. I don't expect this to happen... but I could see a 5-7 day window where it's curtains for us for this reason. Don't get me wrong this is definitely better than where we've been. Does anyone think the AO will flip as dramatically as the 12z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Some weather people will always say the same thing when many other weather people have seen and said for month the big weather pattern change is coming and is now starting to change in the next ten days , one of those that saw for while is steve from ny weather / lc and jb . Those that said winter would not come are now saying this is big surprise but it if look at upper warming that had been going for a month you would have know it was coming this month the big change towards snowy colder pattern for the eastern usa. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thanks to everyone who laughed at my post this morning about watching this system for wintry precipitation.. the gfs is exactly what I was talking about. Get this low a little east under NE, let the Arctic high push this east and were in business. Lets see what the "jester" has to say at 1:00 I just don't see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I wonder where the Euro is going with this system next week. There are alot of conflicting players which imho are messing up the models. eg: Cutter but eastern Canadian HP thwarting it some. So GFS turns it into a coastal. I'm wondering if we get a triple point low over or just under SNE and NNE does pretty well next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Shouldn't the Euro be out about now for next weeks system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Some weather people will always say the same thing when many other weather people have seen and said for month the big weather pattern change is coming and is now starting to change in the next ten days , one of those that saw for while is steve from ny weather / lc and jb . True. Steve said change in 10 days 50 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GEFS flips the AO so far negative it eviscerates the SE ridge. -AO correlates most strongly with low heights over the MA and SE. Wouldn't that be something if we finally flip the AO and it's so substantial we screw ourselves lol. I don't expect this to happen... but I could see a 5-7 day window where it's curtains for us for this reason. Don't get me wrong this is definitely better than where we've been. Does anyone think the AO will flip as dramatically as the 12z GEFS? no. The GEFS is already getting the AO in the tank in the beginning of the run which isn't likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is a hideous, slow moving, soaking rainstorm. Would be devastating for CNE ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is certainly not a cutter. It's not snow for SNE but certainly not a cutter and much more simllar to GFS out to 174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The GEFS flips the AO so far negative it eviscerates the SE ridge. -AO correlates most strongly with low heights over the MA and SE. Wouldn't that be something if we finally flip the AO and it's so substantial we screw ourselves lol. Don't get me wrong this is definitely better than where we've been. Does anyone think the AO will flip as dramatically as the 12z GEFS? If you look at the heights, it's mostly across the North Pole. All the while, we still have a +NAO look. If I saw ridging into the Davis Straits too, then I would worry about it. I'm not so sure that higher heights across the North Pole would suppress with a +NAO, but I could be wrong. I think the GFS is too aggressive with that, but it has the right idea I think. So in other words, I don't quite buy the GEFS right now regarding the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 no. The GEFS is already getting the AO in the tank in the beginning of the run which isn't likely imo. It was a rhetorical question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Shouldn't the Euro be out about now for next weeks system? Almost, I will let you know in a few more panels how much rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 but the SE ridge has been there, in all it's glory, has it not? A little, but it wasn't an overwhelming force. A +EPO and +NAO allowed for the westerlies to be displaced northward (interestingly in a similar fashion to the pattern leading up to Irene ... so if we had a December TS to track... lol). Anyway, that lead to the extensive warmth, primarily across the northern tier. The PNA actually averaged positive, along with persistent positive AAM tendencies (which propogated poleward, contributing to the +EPO) ... not very Nina like. It wasn't a classic SE ridge pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 If you look at the heights, it's mostly across the North Pole. All the while, we still have a +NAO look. If I saw ridging into the Davis Straits too, then I would worry about it. I'm not so sure that higher heights across the North Pole would suppress with a +NAO, but I could be wrong. I think the GFS is too aggressive with that, but it has the right idea I think. So in other words, I don't quite buy the GEFS right now regarding the AO. Yeah agreed. Definitely a pattern change. I don't exactly see a stormy pattern... but we'll see. I hope we get something this has just been a brutal stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is a hideous, slow moving, soaking rainstorm. Would be devastating for CNE ski areas. Ryan, that HP in eastern Canada imho will save the ski areas. It's the pattern changer ala 12/23/93. Look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 In the end, Euro has similarities to the CMC. snowNH's GFS is likely taking a dump this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ryan, that HP in eastern Canada imho will save the ski areas. It's the pattern changer ala 12/23/93. Look it up. Problem is the monster trough in the central US with this thing... just flooding us with warm air. NW NE probably ok with some mix but I think for Mass, S VT/NH this is just a hideous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Good run for Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Problem is the monster trough in the central US with this thing... just flooding us with warm air. NW NE probably ok with some mix but I think for Mass, S VT/NH this is just a hideous storm. It's our pattern changer and I'll embrace it. Hoping for overrunning snow within 5 days of that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Good run for Vim Toot! not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's our pattern changer and I'll embrace it. Hoping for overrunning snow within 5 days of that system. Let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro D8 has the PV in Hudson's Bay....ala my favorite winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yeah agreed. Definitely a pattern change. I don't exactly see a stormy pattern... but we'll see. I hope we get something this has just been a brutal stretch. Yeah I don't think we'll see an extremely wet pattern, but maybe some mdt snowfalls here or there....IIIFFFF the pattern plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 A little, but it wasn't an overwhelming force. A +EPO and +NAO allowed for the westerlies to be displaced northward (interestingly in a similar fashion to the pattern leading up to Irene ... so if we had a December TS to track... lol). Anyway, that lead to the extensive warmth, primarily across the northern tier. The PNA actually averaged positive, along with persistent positive AAM tendencies (which propogated poleward, contributing to the +EPO) ... not very Nina like. It wasn't a classic SE ridge pattern. yeah i see what you're saying. This is the Nov. 1 to Dec. 31st 500mb anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 A little, but it wasn't an overwhelming force. A +EPO and +NAO allowed for the westerlies to be displaced northward (interestingly in a similar fashion to the pattern leading up to Irene ... so if we had a December TS to track... lol). Anyway, that lead to the extensive warmth, primarily across the northern tier. The PNA actually averaged positive, along with persistent positive AAM tendencies (which propogated poleward, contributing to the +EPO) ... not very Nina like. It wasn't a classic SE ridge pattern. Funny that the +PNA actually helped warm us in that pattern...it helped blowtorch sw and srn Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm going to sit back and let this ride for a few (several) days. No sense in getting too enthused bsed on how things have evolved this year. In the meantime, I'm enjoy the continuous light-moderate snow we've been having all day. Moderate at the moment, things covered in white. Forecast calls for mostly sunny and 20% chance of snowshowers. No snow, and 95% of the day has consisted of snow. 28.7/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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