Ellinwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I think the issue lies in how he over-hypes things and people want to 'stick it to him' when he is wrong. He makes meteorologists all over look bad since people see that he's so wrong so often and assume all meteorologists are 'always wrong anyway' and have no idea what they are talking about. Agreed in so many words, but it's actually more than that. On top of all this, JB refuses to look at the forecast realistically and instead tries to find excuses to hold onto his original ideas. It's one thing to be wrong, it's another to be wrong and refuse to alter your forecast when the change in the forecast has become strongly evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just to let everyone know I had a dinner with JB 2 years ago. He might be wrong in somethings, but the passion he has for being a MET is a work of art. I am this way because I am a Christian. Christians can't be mean to people?! Wtf is that part of your statement (I mean it's all ridic since JB is a self-serving person who only cares about subscription $$)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I tend to look at it this way: JB was expected to bring subscribers to to Weatherbell because of his name cachet as well as his long range forecasting ability. A large part of it is his winter forecast. Unfortunately, he's faced with one of the wimpiest winters in awhile yet is still expected to bring in subscribers as well as retain current customers. He's doing his best to try to make it interesting but it's like doing color commentary for a matchup between a pair of last place football teams. That said, his hyperbole has grown tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I tend to look at it this way: JB was expected to bring subscribers to to Weatherbell because of his name cachet as well as his long range forecasting ability. A large part of it is his winter forecast. Unfortunately, he's faced with one of the wimpiest winters in awhile yet is still expected to bring in subscribers as well as retain current customers. He's doing his best to try to make it interesting but it's like doing color commentary for a matchup between a pair of last place football teams. That said, his hyperbole has grown tiresome. Or for two top-ranked teams with good defense and no real offense... oh and no interceptions either.... except for those touchdowns in the 4th quarter... (wait what that wasn't supposed to be in my analogy?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 OSU snub still hurts, eh? :-) I'm with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB still thinks we're in a pattern similar to 1984-1985, just 2-3 weeks later than that year. He thinks the torch we're about to experience is possibly the equivilent to the torch of late December 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not matter what there is something about you I like JB .We all our wrong at times. Remember "being a MET is one job you can be wrong on and still have" I still love the theory on our upcoming winters. Lets see if they play out. I believe they will. To anyone knocking on JB being successful and what he has accomplished is a fool. I would LOVE TO BE IN JB"s shoes. I have less the 2 years before I have my Atmosph/MET science degree. I learn from everyone. What to do and not to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 January is a dud. I suppose there is still hope in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Just to let everyone know I had a dinner with JB 2 years ago. He might be wrong in somethings, but the passion he has for being a MET is a work of art. I am this way because I am a Christian. I think I understand it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 January is a dud. I suppose there is still hope in February. Euro Weeklies say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro Weeklies say so Yeah I haven't seen them but I've heard they're wonderful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arizonasooner Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Where I have been this winter the weather has been pretty active! We had a cool November in AZ with decent precip. Then in early December when I was in the Inland Northwest it was below normal temp-wise with so much frost every morning it looked like snow. And we actually had a few flurries. I was in Ohio the latter part of the month, vacillating between snow showers and blow torch with a really severe thunderstorm on the 30th in Columbus. Now I am back in the northwest and we are under a winter storm watch. On the other hand, my tomato crop is ripening nicely with the recent 70s in PHX. Too bad I am not there to eat more of them - they are super tasty. Also, we have had a ton of eggplant, cauliflower and lettuce already this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Joe usually fairly accurate, this year it is way off. I believe he was right the last few winters. No one really predicted anything right this winter, seems to me like there are to many mixed signals in the winter this year. People are mostly upset because they wanted a cold and snowy winter and want to have someone to blame. Kind of a bad thing since this year he moved to a diffirent company. The pattern this winter has been highly abnormal and chaotic. I remember he did well in 2009/10, but the past few winters have not gone as well for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The pattern this winter has been highly abnormal and chaotic. I remember he did well in 2009/10, but the past few winters have not gone as well for him. When you forecast the same thing every year, you get lucky sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yeah I haven't seen them but I've heard they're wonderful... I read a post that they were very warm throughout the month of feb.. so were you being sarcastic or serious with your post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB says watch out for February and March. He said it can be like December and January of last year. I read a post that they were very warm throughout the month of feb.. so were you being sarcastic or serious with your post? Monthlies were warm, not the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The pattern this winter has been highly abnormal and chaotic. Long-range forecasting is very challenging and a high degree of "art." Having said that, December was very consistent with a pattern one would expect from an extreme AO+ month. The December 2011 anomalies are on the left and the composite based on the AO is on the right: Also, from my perspective, January has not been "highly abnormal." IMO, it has largely been what would be expected given the evolution of the ENSO, AO+, PNA neutral, and EPO+. The raw charts show January (top) and February (bottom) for my assumptions: NOTE: These charts are not adjusted for the observed warming that has been occurring in recent decades. The proper adjustment for January would be to confine the cool anomalies to the Pacific Northwest and to forecast the Northern Plains and New England to be warmer than normal. Florida would also be adjusted to somewhat cooler than shown on the map. In February, the cold should be sufficient to overwhelm the observed warming in the Northern Plains. For another perspective, here's the latest forecast for February from the CFSv2: February is not yet locked in. There remains a prospect of coast-to-coast warmth. It is a close call, though I lean against it at present. IMO, what might have proved confusing was the two modeled stratospheric warming events. The assumption was that each would be of a magnitude to disrupt or even split the polar vortex, leading to strong blocking. Neither event reached that magnitude. The minor events have resulted in a modest weakening of the polar vortex. The decay due to other factors has also been ongoing. Hence, a period of blockiness may lie ahead, but it probably won't be sufficient to overwhelm the other teleconnections (PNA and EPO). My February map assumes a modestly negative AO for the month as a whole. A positive AO would lead to a warmer outcome and, as noted above, it is a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Don, I agree, I think both Dec and January acted pretty much as expected based on the pattern. I think some equate the "chaotic pattern" to people trying to make monthly forecasts too far in advance (ie Oct for a Decmbe forecast). Dec was very predictable as the strong vortex event made a strongly positive AO likely which in a nina year pretty much clinches it being warm across much of the country. The positive NAO made it likely that January would be warmer than normal here and now with the PNA going negative as it usually does in a nina year, it sealed the deal for January. I have less confidence in Feb but historically in most nina years, the pna stays negative more than positive and with the CFS2 having a really warm look for Feb, I'd probably lean warm except possibly over the northern plains and west. However, I don't like makinng a call for a month until we're closer to it to see how the pattern is evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Don, I agree, I think both Dec and January acted pretty much as expected based on the pattern. I think some equate the "chaotic pattern" to people trying to make monthly forecasts too far in advance (ie Oct for a Decmbe forecast). Dec was very predictable as the strong vortex event made a strongly positive AO likely which in a nina year pretty much clinches it being warm across much of the country. The positive NAO made it likely that January would be warmer than normal here and now with the PNA going negative as it usually does in a nina year, it sealed the deal for January. I have less confidence in Feb but historically in most nina years, the pna stays negative more than positive and with the CFS2 having a really warm look for Feb, I'd probably lean warm except possibly over the northern plains and west. However, I don't like makinng a call for a month until we're closer to it to see how the pattern is evolving. I agree Wes. My map for February is still very preliminary and it could change. It's a close call for an even warmer outcome right now. Should evidence of the emergence of strong blocking or a PNA+ begin to appear, then things could be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB says watch out for February and March. He said it can be like December and January of last year. Monthlies were warm, not the weeklies. The weeklies were warm, except perhaps week 4, but that might be pushing it. Although they did have some ridging in the NAO region, they had a very strong AK low modeled. So imo, if we don't see blocking, we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The weeklies were warm, except perhaps week 4, but that might be pushing it. Although they did have some ridging in the NAO region, they had a very strong AK low modeled. So imo, if we don't see blocking, we torch. I read on Accuweather from a meteorologist that the weeklies were cold and stormy from the 2nd week of February onward. The monthlies were warm throughout February into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I read on Accuweather from a meteorologist that the weeklies were cold and stormy from the 2nd week of February onward. The monthlies were warm throughout February into March. I don't know how you can say the weeklies were cold and stormy from 2nd week of Feb onward, when the weeklies only go to the 13th. There is a -NAO modeled, but it's still a pretty bad looking PAC. Most areas of the northeast outside of New England would still probably not reap any benefits, thanks to the PAC. If the -NAO does not materialize, then forget it. If it does materialize, then maybe the storm chances come with it...but with a big AK low modeled..it doesn't look pretty. Not to mention it's week 4 which is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Its probably just someone from accuweather trying to get their subscriptions up. Also, is this monthly thing something accuweather provides? Never heard of this. Seems something to hypontize the weenies. Whats next, yearlies? I don't know how you can say the weeklies were cold and stormy from 2nd week of Feb onward, when the weeklies only go to the 13th. There is a -NAO modeled, but it's still a pretty bad looking PAC. Most areas of the northeast outside of New England would still probably not reap any benefits, thanks to the PAC. If the -NAO does not materialize, then forget it. If it does materialize, then maybe the storm chances come with it...but with a big AK low modeled..it doesn't look pretty. Not to mention it's week 4 which is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Honestly, just change the i in flip to o for flop and this title is much more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 lol, Chicago just had four consecutive 50"+ snowfall seasons (2007-08 to 2010-11) before this clunker...first time that's happened in their recorded history. That being said, awful winters...from a cold/snow lovers perspective...happen more than you think in Chicago. It is what it is...stop with the dramatics. Right? Plus unlike Valdez, AK there are actually other things to do in Chicago besides eat whale blubber and drill for oil so why would you move? That being said the run we've been on the last 4 years was bound to come to end sometime. Probably the most snow in a 4 year stretch I've ever seen in my life and will be tough to top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Its probably just someone from accuweather trying to get their subscriptions up. Also, is this monthly thing something accuweather provides? Never heard of this. Seems something to hypontize the weenies. Whats next, yearlies? Yeah the monthlies are real. They are available on the ECWMF.int site, but I think you need to have some sort of data plan in order to see them. I've seen them..they have been correct for the most part iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I read a post that they were very warm throughout the month of feb.. so were you being sarcastic or serious with your post? Those were the monthlies. I meant the weekly control run every Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 AccuWeather's Brett Anderson posts rough maps of the Euro weeklies on his blog regularly. Here is the latest update: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/bad-news-for-alaska-into-february/60204 It does indeed look mild in the northeast until week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 In Message #108, I provided the following raw charts: January (top) and February (bottom) based on my assumptions for those months: Afterward, I noted that adjustments for the observed warming that has been occurring in recent decades would be to place cool anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and to forecast the Northern Plains and New England to be warmer than normal. Florida would also be adjusted to somewhat cooler than shown on the map. FWIW, through January 16, here's a sample of monthly temperature anomalies from across the U.S. Albany: +5.0° Allentown: +4.3° Atlanta: +4.1° Baltimore: +3.8° Billings: +7.2° Birmingham: +2.8° Bismarck: +14.7° Boise: +2.1° Boston: +3.8° Buffalo: +4.5° (not good for LES) Burlington: +3.7° Caribou: +5.1° Charlotte: +3.3° Chicago: +7.0° Cleveland: +3.8° Concord: +4.3° Denver: +4.2° Detroit: +6.2° Harrisburg: +3.2° Houston: +4.2° Los Angeles: +4.4° Memphis: +5.8° Miami: -3.1° Milwaukee: +7.8° Minneapolis-St. Paul: +11.2° New York City: +3.8° Norfolk: +4.8° Omaha: +10.0° Orlando: -3.2° Philadelphia: +3.3° Pittsburgh: +3.2° Portland, ME: +3.1° Portland, OR: -2.0° Raleigh: +3.7° Rapid City: +7.2° Richmond: +3.3° San Francisco: +0.4° Seattle: -1.5° Spokane: +1.2° St. Louis: +5.8° Washington, DC (DCA): +3.8° Wilmington, DE: +3.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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