Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I haven't read his article but I doubt he's given up on the entire winter but one the pattern change that he and a few others were going for. Such a change does not look likely through the month. I like Dave, so there's no harshness intended. He's pulled the plug while not yet willing to compare this to the dreaded worst of the worst. You've seen all the same progs as the rest of us and it's ugly long term especially in the CP and the further south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 JB looks absolutely clueless yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What I find ironic are the amazing similarities to 2001-2002. Just like that year, JB keeps saying the cold is coming, only for the models to flip and continue to predict warmth. I well remember how around Christmas 2001, it briefly looked like the pattern was flipping to sustained cold, with a high of -12C predicted for Toronto in early January 2002 on The Weather Network. Two days later they were calling for highs above freezing on the same day. Many weather agencies, including accuweather, Environment Canada and the NWS were calling for a severely cold winter, only for them all to bust. I think we're in for a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 flip flop clipper flipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 These guys get paid to say what they think people want to hear and they cater to that. I told my fellow Lakes/MW posters back in early November I thought we were headed to a tough Winter (tough meaning warmth and a lot less snowfallI), unfortunately that has pretty much been spot on. I called for a pattern change before Xmas around Jan 10-15th when I thought things would flip and Winter would "arrive". That call is going to be maybe 50% correct at best- we got a decent snow today and have a short lived shot of cold...but the pattern by the end of next week is going to flip back it appears to milder air flooding the country again off the Pacific. No persistent blocking up by Greenland, persistent low over Alaska, and jetstream locking up cold in Canada. Its going to be more of the same for a bit. I don't know if we ever get a persistent Winter pattern at all over much of the Nation. February is going to have to be very good over a large portion of the country to salvage Winter, with the way things have been I don't know if we can pull it off. I am by no means cancelling Winter, just going to be tough to lock in a persistent pattern, things are to progressive. There will be some snow and cold but I don't think its going to last in any one spot for long outside of Alaska where the persistent low/vortex has been since late last Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What I find ironic are the amazing similarities to 2001-2002. Just like that year, JB keeps saying the cold is coming, only for the models to flip and continue to predict warmth. I well remember how around Christmas 2001, it briefly looked like the pattern was flipping to sustained cold, with a high of -12C predicted for Toronto in early January 2002 on The Weather Network. Two days later they were calling for highs above freezing on the same day. Many weather agencies, including accuweather, Environment Canada and the NWS were calling for a severely cold winter, only for them all to bust. I think we're in for a cold spring. In early January 2002 we actually got snow (a foot of it, actually). This year, I heard that there were a few flakes at RDU after a cold front the other week, but other than that, we've seen nothing and may, in fact, see nothing for the rest of the winter. We actually had a real pattern change in 01/02, albeit only for about two weeks, but this year, it's the same thing, day in/day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the only info I get on JB is whatever I pick up here. I think I've been to that weatherbell site once a few months ago. I've read a couple of his tweets and that's about it. Life after JB has you posting less JMA'S - congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It still amazes me that DT drops f bombs and calls people idiots on his FB business page. It doesn't surprise me one bit. DT needs a "Baghdad Bob" type who can translate "fook you and your mom" into "I respectfully disagree." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What I find ironic are the amazing similarities to 2001-2002. Just like that year, JB keeps saying the cold is coming, only for the models to flip and continue to predict warmth. I well remember how around Christmas 2001, it briefly looked like the pattern was flipping to sustained cold, with a high of -12C predicted for Toronto in early January 2002 on The Weather Network. Two days later they were calling for highs above freezing on the same day. Many weather agencies, including accuweather, Environment Canada and the NWS were calling for a severely cold winter, only for them all to bust. I think we're in for a cold spring. 2001-2 was the first winter having to use the then strongly cold-biased GFS (actually called the MRF/AVN then), which had started with the 5/15/01 major model modification whose main purpose was to cut down on spurious tropical cyclone development (which was successful by the way). (Prior to that, it actually had a small warm bias.) I still have a good number of those old MRF/AVN maps because they were so ridiculously cold and I was testing the bias. Many of that winter's runs were insanely cold, which almost certainly helped encourage JB to keep forecasting extreme/vodka cold. The bias remained afterward, but no subsequent winter resulted in as cold MRF/GFS maps overall. Aside: Atlanta actually had a great snow winter (4.6"), which was over 250% of its average snow! For the fun of it, here is one of those frigid maps, which was projecting 12/28/01: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 JB is now predicting +8 for a large part of the country 1/23-1/29 so he's right for the wrong reason...the pattern indeed flipped...from warmth to historic warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 JB hyping Sping! Its a clipper, its a clipper.... "In the wake of the upcoming cold week, a taste of spring flings itself on the US from the plains east 22-28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldnsnowy Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 still waiting for that big flip.....lol...what a joker. People actually pay him money? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Joe usually fairly accurate, this year it is way off. I believe he was right the last few winters. No one really predicted anything right this winter, seems to me like there are to many mixed signals in the winter this year. People are mostly upset because they wanted a cold and snowy winter and want to have someone to blame. Kind of a bad thing since this year he moved to a diffirent company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The lesson to learn from this is that winter that are hyped up to be cold and snowy rarely live up to expectations. The same happened in 2001-2002. This past Fall, accuweather said that after this winter people in Chicago may want to move. They may be right - winter lovers in Chicago may indeed want to move....to valdez, Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 He hyped the cold in Western Canada and the PNW about a month ago... he's not ALWAYS wrong... maybe he was delayed not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 ALEET ALEET!!! Condition COFFEE for Jan 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 2nd, 5th, 26th!!!! Wxrisk.com ALERT ***ALERT ** prolonged WARM PERIOD coming for ALL of the of EAST COAST-- from GA to New southern New England JAN 21-22-23-24-2-5-26 as N BIG Low forms over Plains and Upper Midwest and STRONG ridge forms over se US.... strrog s winds will pull up very mild air for Mid- late JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The lesson to learn from this is that winter that are hyped up to be cold and snowy rarely live up to expectations. The same happened in 2001-2002. This past Fall, accuweather said that after this winter people in Chicago may want to move. They may be right - winter lovers in Chicago may indeed want to move....to valdez, Alaska. lol, Chicago just had four consecutive 50"+ snowfall seasons (2007-08 to 2010-11) before this clunker...first time that's happened in their recorded history. That being said, awful winters...from a cold/snow lovers perspective...happen more than you think in Chicago. It is what it is...stop with the dramatics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Joe Bastardi's winter preview back in September. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEFsdFtMqao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 ALEET ALEET!!! Condition COFFEE for Jan 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 2nd, 5th, 26th!!!! Wxrisk.com ALERT ***ALERT ** prolonged WARM PERIOD coming for ALL of the of EAST COAST-- from GA to New southern New England JAN 21-22-23-24-2-5-26 as N BIG Low forms over Plains and Upper Midwest and STRONG ridge forms over se US.... strrog s winds will pull up very mild air for Mid- late JAN Between this and JB hyping spring warmth for the east, i'm getting my snow blower ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Joe usually fairly accurate, this year it is way off. I believe he was right the last few winters. No one really predicted anything right this winter, seems to me like there are to many mixed signals in the winter this year. People are mostly upset because they wanted a cold and snowy winter and want to have someone to blame. Kind of a bad thing since this year he moved to a diffirent company. He actually busted last year--but b/c it was a "good bust" all was forgiven--he called for Jan to warm up and flip to warm--he was off b/y a good month...delayed but not denied--his hurrcane forecast overall was not good and he called for a big OCt hit which did not materialize. Also had Irene way too strong after it was obvious it was going to be weaker.... He's had a rough 6 months, but his last year was not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 He actually busted last year--but b/c it was a "good bust" all was forgiven--he called for Jan to warm up and flip to warm--he was off b/y a good month...delayed but not denied--his hurrcane forecast overall was not good and he called for a big OCt hit which did not materialize. Also had Irene way too strong after it was obvious it was going to be weaker.... He's had a rough 6 months, but his last year was not that great. Dont forget his arctic sea ice predictions were horribly wrong. this man seems content throwing his integrity out the window for money. Folks who love cold/snow get Blind to reality. He you what u want to hear. No mater how bad his overall forecasts are folks keep coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just thought I would re-post this, that was posted in the southeast part in the forum. Here's bits and pieces from JB this morning. Look I know right from wrong.. and you can keep hammering away, you pay, you get to play. But dont think its lah de dah, O well. I came to the conclusion a long time ago that I am only as good as my worst day.. And while I dont yet put this in genre of 01-02 or Jan of 06 which like this year btw no one else had as warm ( That comment I just made, is for losers, I shouldnt be worried about anyone else, but the fact is Its NOT ME THAT SAID another BRUTAL winter is on the way for the nation or its the coldest in the last 10 years, I said it would be a break from the past 2 years overall and not as bad as next year or the year after... and I have laid my reasons out there). But I see I am wrong. I also see that the cold that is here now, and the cold that is coming into the midwest next week is going to be spot on, and while the flip flops for a while it may flip back and make some of you scowling, smile. Just understand, he sais no one was madder than him at being wrong..and its not just another day at the office I did expect more winter than what we have seen, but when its all totaled up, We can slam it for what the totals are. I am part weather geek too you know and I am not in the business to hype or get media attention. I am to be right and so I know its been an off year. But I pray you see all the things I have been laying out for you, so on the occasions I am right you have the reasons before, hand, and if wrong, you can see the excuses. He did read people's comments below his posts.... I did read the comments as painful but to the point as some of them were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We're overdue.... https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/401587_284511418262790_129478830432717_793198_1010085053_n.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I think everyone needs to lay off Joe Bastardi. That man has worked his tail off to where he is now. Yes I am upset that some if his predictions did not come true. Well ladies and gentlemen long range forecasting is if not one of the toughest things to do in the MET world. This area is only going to get better in time as the technology gets better. I am sure JB will too. I am curious to see If his prediction of the the 2012-2013 winter and so on play out the way he is calling for. If he is right, my hat will go off for him. We have had a crappy winter and if we had a great winter, I believe people would not be so much of prick then they are now. I will say it again, I am upset the weather is not playing in our favor this year but what can you do. I am in a good mood today after my sons baptism and seeing the hate for someone just makes me sick. JB IF YOU COULD READ THIS, I GOT YOUR BACK ALWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I think everyone needs to lay off Joe Bastardi. That man has worked his tail off to where he is now. Yes I am upset that some if his predictions did not come true. Well ladies and gentlemen long range forecasting is if not one of the toughest things to do in the MET world. This area is only going to get better in time as the technology gets better. I am sure JB will too. I am curious to see If his prediction of the the 2012-2013 winter and so on play out the way he is calling for. If he is right, my hat will go off for him. We have had a crappy winter and if we had a great winter, I believe people would not be so much of prick then they are now. I will say it again, I am upset the weather is not playing in our favor this year but what can you do. I am in a good mood today after my sons baptism and seeing the hate for someone just makes me sick. JB IF YOU COULD READ THIS, I GOT YOUR BACK ALWAYS. I hope you at least gave JB a reacharound after this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I don't live life in hate when things do not go my way or over bad weather forecasting. I might get frustrated but not to the extent as some people are. Instead of being a prick to JB then just do not listen to his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just to let everyone know I had a dinner with JB 2 years ago. He might be wrong in somethings, but the passion he has for being a MET is a work of art. I am this way because I am a Christian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Persistence_Uncancel Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 JB, Jan 5, 2012: "These winters of transition to the colder overall pattern should be a forecasting lab in every serious meteo school in the country!" "I have tried to make points about the wild cards of this winter beforehand, this was one of them. Winter will turn on dime 1/15 on for US" "Next fla freeze threat next weekend.. remember mild then wild, then cold that is vile ... weather evolution for U.S. next 3 weeks" I don't live life in hate when things do not go my way or over bad weather forecasting. I might get frustrated but not to the extent as some people are. Instead of being a prick to JB then just do not listen to his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I think the issue lies in how he over-hypes things and people want to 'stick it to him' when he is wrong. He makes meteorologists all over look bad since people see that he's so wrong so often and assume all meteorologists are 'always wrong anyway' and have no idea what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Persistence_Uncancel Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Over-hype? Saying a few weeks back that next week will be "cold that is vile"? Most people on these boards have never seen maps this warm-looking almost coast to coast for end of Jan. I'd say 'over-hyping' is being generous...... I think the issue lies in how he over-hypes things and people want to 'stick it to him' when he is wrong. He makes meteorologists all over look bad since people see that he's so wrong so often and assume all meteorologists are 'always wrong anyway' and have no idea what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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