Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Compares it to the 06-07 flip. January cancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Is he talking about the weather or about how often he changes his mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i agree, there will be a big flip...... for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well. Perhaps he is unabashed regarding his past proclamations and is driven by the never ending search for truth. If someone is willing to endure the fallout of their previous predictions, then, I applaud them. It is better than hanging on to wrong, wrong, wrong (if true). Forgive me, I'm attending my last party of the holiday season. A Good New Year to All !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's amazing this guy continues to get paid. I guess you got to support a steroid habit somehow...haha In all seriousness, this has been one of his worst seasons in years. It was a first seeing him go from a warm jan forecast to a cold Jan forecast in less than 3 days. He seems to be chasing his tail much faster than most other mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 JB said cold December...BUST. He then said torch Jan 1-20th...BUST. Now Cold 2nd half of Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Given this is the first winter for Weatherbell, it can't look good for them that their forecast has been a failure thus far. They called for a front loaded winter, when it will likely end up being a back loaded one - if indeed it gets loaded at all. I still think Roger Smith has the best looking forecast. February will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyMet Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Given this is the first winter for Weatherbell, it can't look good for them that their forecast has been a failure thus far. They called for a front loaded winter, when it will likely end up being a back loaded one - if indeed it gets loaded at all. I still think Roger Smith has the best looking forecast. February will rock! I'm not going to be the new guy on the block in defense (or defence depending on your location to our border ) of JB; but what I find interesting is the hype that gets put out by JB/WB as a whole, is far from the independent forecasts that are called for the corporations hired by WeatherBell. Some of the contractors up at Aberdeen (Maryland) are part of larger conglomerates that receive 'corporate forecasts' and they're quite good, customized, and reasonably accurate. One as of last week mentioned the possibility for snow this Sunday, but dismissed it as anything that should hinder travel if it came to fruition at all. Not saying it's anything more than broad, sweeping, dime store Zoltar predictions - but still, far more accurate than 'we' typically see JB. Additionally, I think it boils down to one of those 'publish or perish' sides of life. The squeaky wheel gets the grease, and making enough noise at least guarantees your name 'in the papers' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Feels more like 1993 when the pattern changed abruptly in the first three days of February. I remember it being mild enough for no jacket on Groundhog Day then about -30 © a week later. Until that happened, there was almost no snow on the ground in central Ontario which usually has 1-2 feet of snow late January. About the earliest I could see a real shift (not just a 2-day cold snap) is around the 20th to 23rd and if that doesn't fire up the shift, it could take until the last two days of January. I feel that it will come for sure by 8-12 February and the heart of the cold regime will be last half of February. At least that's the best possible time for east coast snow lovers if you have to go with one window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Feels more like 1993 when the pattern changed abruptly in the first three days of February. I remember it being mild enough for no jacket on Groundhog Day then about -30 © a week later. Until that happened, there was almost no snow on the ground in central Ontario which usually has 1-2 feet of snow late January. About the earliest I could see a real shift (not just a 2-day cold snap) is around the 20th to 23rd and if that doesn't fire up the shift, it could take until the last two days of January. I feel that it will come for sure by 8-12 February and the heart of the cold regime will be last half of February. At least that's the best possible time for east coast snow lovers if you have to go with one window of opportunity. i hope you are right man@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I have been reading from different blog sites, Kansas City NBC affliate, La Crosse, WI NWS forecast discussion from last night that a major pattern change is coming for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 WINTER JUST GOT SERIOUS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fujiwara Effect Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i agree, there will be a big flip...... or maybe a flop for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol long range forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is he talking about the weather or about how often he changes his mind? Well, you stole my line that I was going to write. I figured someone would have beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The thing that gets me about JB sometimes is how he'll hype up a pattern flip then try to downplay it. For example, it looks like this weather pattern is going to change. But if you look at one of his tweets today, he says that the GFS is overdone on the 12z run. It's as if he hypes up the coming cold and then when a model goes to an extreme, he says, "now, wait a minute. I never thought it was going to be that cold." And yet, based on earlier posts from him anyone would swear he was calling for just such an extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The thing that gets me about JB sometimes is how he'll hype up a pattern flip then try to downplay it. For example, it looks like this weather pattern is going to change. But if you look at one of his tweets today, he says that the GFS is overdone on the 12z run. It's as if he hypes up the coming cold and then when a model goes to an extreme, he says, "now, wait a minute. I never thought it was going to be that cold." And yet, based on earlier posts from him anyone would swear he was calling for just such an extreme. Its called the yo-yo approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The thing that gets me about JB sometimes is how he'll hype up a pattern flip then try to downplay it. For example, it looks like this weather pattern is going to change. But if you look at one of his tweets today, he says that the GFS is overdone on the 12z run. It's as if he hypes up the coming cold and then when a model goes to an extreme, he says, "now, wait a minute. I never thought it was going to be that cold." And yet, based on earlier posts from him anyone would swear he was calling for just such an extreme. That is because they skim over what he has said, and make up half truths. He is saying the cold is coming, he never said snowfall is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm hoping we get a cold wave that helps to erase January's positive anomolies up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 JB said cold December...BUST.He then said torch Jan 1-20th...BUST. Now Cold 2nd half of Jan? 1/1-20 looks good. Everyone is way above normal and I don't see a below normal day before 1/14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1/1-20 looks good. Everyone is way above normal and I don't see a below normal day before 1/14-15. Does it count if he cancels it 3 days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Does it count if he cancels it 3 days later? Nope. But the poster on 1/3 presuming 1/1-20 would not be above normal puzzles me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Canada's really cold in the progs....the whole country (Canada) had thicknesses sub 504. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Canada's really cold in the progs....the whole country (Canada) had thicknesses sub 504. Maybe we'll get something close to 0F day in Toronto. It's tougher to do in Toronto compared to Ottawa and Montreal, but it has been known to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That is because they skim over what he has said, and make up half truths. He is saying the cold is coming, he never said snowfall is too. JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Granted 1/1 to 1/20 will be above normal, but other than 2 or 3 days, it 's not going to be a blowtorch...his post suggested epic warmth at the time (and yes, 3 days later he canceled it!)--on that note, he's now looking for a "Nasty" February...but his winter forecast had Feb being the warmest of his 3 winter months by far...oh well, not his year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1/1-20 looks good. Everyone is way above normal and I don't see a below normal day before 1/14-15. Overall this time period is above normal. We had some record highs this past week. A torch for a lot of areas, especially when your talking 50s, 60s, and even 70 in the high plains in January. December he busted, but this time frame he did good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the month is moving along like 1950 and that year had a great torch before February...February did turn colder with a few slop storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just read LC on Wxrisk's FB page. LC agrees with the coming flip...... to a much MILDER pattern nationwide lol. LC has been banging the cold is coming drums for the last 2 months in his columns. Reading his comments on FB, it looks like he's finally ready to give up and is joining the warministas. Has JB updated? I can't remember what's next, a flip or a flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the month is moving along like 1950 and that year had a great torch before February...February did turn colder with a few slop storms... Unc, I'm cool with 1950 as long as November continues to play ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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