Northeastah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 We just can't catch a break. Time to move on to February? It's pretty obvious no system is ever going to phase this year in the right spot for a snow producing coastal storm. This could have gone two ways ..phase west and cutter, or as appears likely - the northern stream dominates and thus unphased and out to sea. Because the Euro had it I took it seriously. But this is the second time the Euro has teased like this around day 5. It's losing it's credibility...won't believe it next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northeastah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That play says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Should the sub-title of this topic be "Will it be wet, white or non-existant?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro fantasy storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You have to figure there's some precip around Sunday/Sunday night.. Whether it's nuisance stuff or more of a storm..there should be something . Let the data get sampled correctly before ruling anything out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You have to figure there's some precip around Sunday/Sunday night.. Whether it's nuisance stuff or more of a storm..there should be something . Let the data get sampled correctly before ruling anything out Maybe, but as we talked about yesterday...the chances of nothing even materializing were there too. I really would not expect anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You have to figure there's some precip around Sunday/Sunday night.. Whether it's nuisance stuff or more of a storm..there should be something . Let the data get sampled correctly before ruling anything out thank you Tip. Seriously....we have a shortwave moving to our se in 4-5 days. It might be nothing but it is probably not phased west and warm. This is on several models. It might trend stronger as it gets closer....That's all we have right now. The Euro had a good storm yesterday and that could come back. Here is HPC overnight. This is getting to be a better and better read. Baby steps: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 359 AM EST WED JAN 04 2012 VALID 12Z SUN JAN 08 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 11 2012 THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PRESENTS A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. ONE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST DAY IS A MODERATE REDUCTION IN SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE SWRN STATES BY DAY 4 SUN. AT THE MOMENT THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE GREATER SUPPORT FOR THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET THAT HOLD THE MID LVL SYSTEM FARTHER WWD THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN... SO PREFERENCE WILL LEAN TO THE SLOWER CLUSTER ALBEIT WITH AT MOST MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO PRIOR MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MOST MODELS. BY DAYS 5-7 MON-WED DETAIL SPREAD INCREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PAC INTO NOAM AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SPLIT IN ERN PAC FLOW. COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE THE CANADIAN IS A PRONOUNCED OUTLIER WITH ITS CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE CA COAST BY TUE. BY THE D+8 TIME FRAME TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NRN ATLC FAVOR AN EVOLUTION THAT BRINGS A MEAN TROF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND PAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ALONG WITH THE BROADER 12Z ECMWF MEAN LEAD INTO THIS FAVORED CONFIGURATION MORE EASILY THAN THE 00Z GFS THAT HAS GREATER WWD ELONGATION OF THE CONUS TROF BY DAY 7 WED... SO PREFERENCE WILL GO TO THE MAJORITY CLUSTER WITH THIS PART OF THE FCST. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHRTWVS CROSSING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS FCST TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE WRN ATLC SYSTEMS... ONE DURING SUN-SUN NIGHT AND ANOTHER AROUND TUE. WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM LATEST CONSENSUS IS EWD OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST WITH ITS SUPPORTING SHRTWV ALOFT. A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC PROVIDES THE BEST INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERING AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN WITH THE SECOND WRN ATLC LOW... AGAIN MORE OFFSHORE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN. IN THIS CASE THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF WAS A MEMBER OF THE CURRENT MAJORITY. BOTH SYSTEMS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN TRACK GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPORTANT SHRTWV DETAILS. THE DAYS 3-5 SAT-MON FCST STARTS WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN TO REFLECT THE MOST AGREEABLE ASPECTS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA AS OF DAY 3 AND WITH WRN ATLC EVOLUTION. DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED USE A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN AS TELECONNECTIONS AND CONTINUITY FAVOR AN ERN CONUS MEAN TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There is a decent s/w coming through on Sunday, but it might not be enough as models show. We'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'll weenie out with Mark on this one. I've seen definitives tossed out by some ... I'm thinking there still is a chance. If there is still nothing by 00z tonight I'll move on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'll weenie out with Mark on this one. I've seen definitives tossed out by some ... I'm thinking there still is a chance. If there is still nothing by 00z tonight I'll move on to the next one. I don't think I'm weenie-ing out. I did that a couple weeks ago and then had to put my weenie away. I think I have a realistic view on this, a viewpoint that is appropriate in these trying times where the level of cynicism is growing. I see myself as a leader, a role model for stepping above the fray. Thank you for joining me. Together we will create a more positive sub forum. It's morning for the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Good question. My guess if that Bob saw 20-30 posts regarding this "potential" and needed to segregate it from the general meterological nothingness. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The storm around the 11th may be the one to be watching after the fantasy run of the 12z euro for sunday, We may still see somthing out of it but not to the extent of what the 12z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro fantasy storm again. GFS schooling the euro in the medium range... The king is no longer the king in patterns like this Edit: I'm an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS schooling the euro in the medium range... The king is no longer the king in patterns like this Link? Because my young friend, you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS schooling the euro in the medium range... The king is no longer the king in patterns like this Not really true. Both models have failed in one way or another, and we have not come to verification time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GFS schooling the euro in the medium range... The king is no longer the king in patterns like this That is not true. However the Euro has had a few ultra amped storms depicted around day 5-7 that have completely dissapeared (fantasy storms as Scooter called them), and the GFS was indeed first to sniff them out. I believe the euro bias of holding energy back in the sw is coming into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's very difficult to get an amped up system in this fast progressive flow. Within the past 3 weeks we've seen some modeled coastals in the 4-5+ day range end up as open waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The Euros last amped storm was indeed amped! But it went west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's very difficult to get an amped up system in this fast progressive flow. Within the past 3 weeks we've seen some modeled coastals in the 4-5+ day range end up as open waves. I just wouldn't expect anything exciting right now. If it does...great, but unlikely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's pretty obvious no system is ever going to phase this year in the right spot for a snow producing coastal storm. October was the real deal, perfect phase coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lol the GFS cannot "school" the Euro when it prints out a completely different solution with every single run. 06z makes five runs in a row with entirely different forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 October was the real deal, perfect phase coastal storm. Funny how that once-in-a-lifetime storm seems to be completely forgotten, simply because it was out of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 October was the real deal, perfect phase coastal storm. It never happened. Snowless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It never happened. Snowless winter It did happen! Ask the people that were out of power for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wake me up in the middle of March so I can go play golf instead of dreaming about snow and waking up to this nightmare of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z at least resembles 06z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It did happen! Ask the people that were out of power for weeks! How is SnowNH doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z at least resembles 06z so far. I think we have a better shot at something next weds then this sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The GFS is god awful, Different solution every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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