ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z GFS does give some light snow from the northern stream trough...but nothing major. Maybe an inch..two if lucky. This threat is something I probably won't take seriously for another 24 hours if its still there on guidance....Euro ensembles liked it at 12z, so its probably worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lol more big changes on the GFS. The last four runs have shown ZERO consistency. TOSS this model for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Is there a meteor shower tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Zero interest. Rain. Dendrite will probably shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00Z GGEM still has it though.. I didn't even know GGEM was out yet. Its not out yet on the environ site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I didn't even know GGEM was out yet. Its not out yet on the environ site. It's not out on the Canadian site yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's not out on the Candian site yet. It's out to hour 108 so far. Has light precip up to SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So it's one model giving us (well most of us) rain and another model nothing but OTS junk...lovely. This is like encountering a murder and asking if you prefer to be shot in the head or the heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I didn't even know GGEM was out yet. Its not out yet on the environ site. My mistake, I looked again and 138 hrs. was 00Z monday the 9th. So that was the earlier run. I'm looking more at H5 and ENS anyway at this point.. Is anyone staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GGEM looks like a whiff SE...but its got a pretty decent s/w....I would have thought the sfc truth would look better than it does. But regardless, probably moot at this point to overanalyze the 108h GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah. GGEM lost the day 4-5 storm as well. Disorganized and weak. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So it's one model giving us (well most of us) rain and another model nothing but OTS junk...lovely. This is like encountering a murder and asking if you prefer to be shot in the head or the heart. I'd much rather OTS junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It wouldn't surprise me either way. Firstly, the Euro has been demonstrating an over amplified bias at D5 a lot this season so far. Secondly, it's tough to compare the operational Euro against the GEFs mean - granted - but the GEFs teleconnector spread offer only vague support all along. There's probably a narrow thread needle potential in there, we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If it doesn't rain, then it will be junk.....just a vibe I have. Not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I see the GGEM weaker SFC and SE whiff now at 00Z 4th.. Like Will said, not like it's worth "overanalyzing" the Canadian at this point. I'm a weenie like everyone else, i guess. 10F/-2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Info in, info out. Strange year leading to unpredictable run to run forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's not even like general SE or NW shifting, the GFS has produced some wildly different solutions with no "trend" Let's see what the Euro gives us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why is there a thread for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's not even like general SE or NW shifting, the GFS has produced some wildly different solutions with no "trend"Let's see what the Euro gives us... The euro will cave to the Gfs like usual. When euro has storm and Gfs dosent..Gfs always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The euro will cave to the Gfs like usual. When euro has storm and Gfs dosent..Gfs always wins Its usually the opposite of what you say here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why is there a thread for this storm? Well hey, the posts have to go somewhere. But yeah, I think the titles should be more along the lines of: "Strung-out-shortwave-energy-that-one-model-consolidates-into-a-storm-within-a-marginal-airmass ...Discussion" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why is there a thread for this storm? Because we're desparate to track something, anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why is there a thread for this storm? Good question. My guess if that Bob saw 2-3 posts regarding this "potential" and needed to segregate it from the general meterological nothingness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Good question. My guess if that Bob saw 2-3 posts regarding this "potential" and needed to segregate it from the general meterological nothingness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro is a whiff SE...kind of close though with the shortwave. I'm not expecting anything from this, but at least its better than tracking 49F and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro almost pulls off a clipper turned Miller B next Tuesday...but not quite...a little too late. But really close. Our hope is that one these "threats" actually turns into something. The true change in the regime though probably happens post-Jan 15. But we do have a couple outside shots before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro is a whiff SE...kind of close though with the shortwave. I'm not expecting anything from this, but at least its better than tracking 49F and sunny. I'll take it. If I could sign off on that right now, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's pretty obvious no system is ever going to phase this year in the right spot for a snow producing coastal storm. This could have gone two ways ..phase west and cutter, or as appears likely - the northern stream dominates and thus unphased and out to sea. Because the Euro had it I took it seriously. But this is the second time the Euro has teased like this around day 5. It's losing it's credibility...won't believe it next time. I'll take it. If I could sign off on that right now, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The euro will cave to the Gfs like usual. When euro has storm and Gfs dosent..Gfs always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Talking about 6 days out is fruitless when trying rationalize the Euro being worse for EC storms vs GFS, Ji. If I only could bump all your posts over the years when the GFS gave you a storm and the Euro schooled it inside of 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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