OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Do we really want the gfs to have the storm at this point? I guess it is inside 108-120 hours now so maybe. I'm perfectly fine with the GFS staying a little damped out for now. My only concern is if it's a matter of which gets more energy ... the first or second s/w within the trough ... which it appears it is based on comparing the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol the 18z GFS looks like it's dropped the storm. BUT note the change in the position of the cutoff ... further SW ... that trend has become well established Throw it out...DGEX is a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol the 18z GFS looks like it's dropped the storm. BUT note the change in the position of the cutoff ... further SW ... that trend has become well established Is that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Maybe we can get WAA light snows Thursday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well hey, let's see... For Concord, NH the record is 122" They're at 26.3" now ... if you think about it, if you ignore the abomination of a December, and just look at the end of the year as a whole, we're going into January above normal on the season so far!!!!! So give 20" to January, 40" to February, 30" to March, and 10" to April ... BOOM. Record. Exactly! ahaha could happen, sh t - how pointless would all the whining have been made should that happen - It's really nothing more than a group of cigarett smoker's in a nic-fit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Maybe we can get WAA light snows Thursday night? LOL..what happened to Wed nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LOL..what happened to Wed nite? Shortwave trended more diffuse...we still probably will have scattered flurries around from it, but it doesn't look as good as it did a couple days ago when we had the shot at some more organized snow shower activity or even a period of light snow. Not that it was ever a big threat, but it was the type of thing that could have given a coating to possibly an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LOL..what happened to Wed nite? I never really thought Wed Night was anything special. Neither is THursday night, but better WAA will occur Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Being 5 days out it'll come west..go back east..and in the end still be rain for most except far N VT..similiar to that last storm..though I could see them doing better on the front end It"s another rainer!! Thanks, Sybill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Its something to track anyways as long as the euro holds on to the solution for a couple more days then i agree with most here that it would be a legit threat, The gfs, Having it OTS right now is a good thing, But we will proceed with caution and a side of optimisum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We don't accept congratulations outside of 12 hours anymore up here. I think I might be speaking for Brian Jeff and Eric. But thanks for the thought.... Congrats Toronto Blizzard! That 12z Euro run could not be any better for us here, Thats why i know its wrong mark....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Throw it out...DGEX is a big hit. Going to be spending the weekend in Northfield visiting the inlaws so its time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Throw it out...DGEX is a big hit. La la la lock it up! Is that bad? No. At least IMO.The further southwest that cuts off, the weaker ridging will be over the southeast, limiting the typical SW flow north trend. My post from earlier: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31234-january-pattern-change-thread/page__st__980__p__1242639#entry1242639 We'll see what happens... only 20 more runs of the GFS to go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 La la la lock it up! No. At least IMO.The further southwest that cuts off, the weaker ridging will be over the southeast, limiting the typical SW flow north trend. My post from earlier: http://www.americanw...39#entry1242639 We'll see what happens... only 20 more runs of the GFS to go lol I think you make a good point there..hopefully that s/w doesn't dig to much and send it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That 12z Euro run could not be any better for us here, Thats why i know its wrong mark....lol La la la lock it up! No. At least IMO.The further southwest that cuts off, the weaker ridging will be over the southeast, limiting the typical SW flow north trend. My post from earlier: http://www.americanw...39#entry1242639 We'll see what happens... only 20 more runs of the GFS to go lol Thinking back to the last event, it's only really fun when it gets down to the last two runs before it completely sh*ts the bed. And the EC, and the NAM........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thinking back to the last event, it's only really fun when it gets down to the last two runs before it completely sh*ts the bed. And the EC, and the NAM........ Thats when the straw grasping starts, They always look good at H5 though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thinking back to the last event, it's only really fun when it gets down to the last two runs before it completely sh*ts the bed. And the EC, and the NAM........ lol, and we're still a couple days away from the NAM range ... and 4 days away from it being useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think you make a good point there..hopefully that s/w doesn't dig to much and send it north. If the Euro ENS have a clue, the PV actually slides SE enough to force the gradient south, confluence would not allow a cutter. Seems reasonable depiction, I would be invested if I lived in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Punishing snowstorm for the mountains, wow. Bridgton Ballbreaker. This might be the storm I ski in. Good 850 track woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Punishing snowstorm for the mountains, wow. Bridgton Ballbreaker. This might be the storm I ski in. Good 850 track woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Haha, not a lock in, I was talking about the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 50, 50 dollar, 50 dollar 50 foot long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Throw it out...DGEX is a big hit. you made me look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 50, 50 dollar, 50 dollar 50 foot long If you count the number of fenway franks I eat at opening day, it comes close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If you count the number of fenway franks I eat at opening day, it comes close to that. lol, Doesn't take long at the concession at fenway to rack up a 50 spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If the Euro ENS have a clue, the PV actually slides SE enough to force the gradient south, confluence would not allow a cutter. Seems reasonable depiction, I would be invested if I lived in CNE. LIke most of these storms...that is the thing to watch..the extent to which the synoptic set up will likely push it se or push it nw. lack of blocking in general pushes it nw, some confluence pushes it se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The 00z GFS replaces the 12z Euro storm with high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The 00z GFS replaces the 12z Euro storm with high pressure. Wonder if it will be like the 1/4 storm, gone at 00z. Although this is day 5 and that was day 8 so maybe that gives us more hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00Z GGEM still has it though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The 00z GFS replaces the 12z Euro storm with high pressure. Just delayed. Some light snows SNE/CNE on Mon-Tue with the actual storm way SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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