Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Color me totally unimpressed with the 18z. Yep. After seeing that system poof when it neared OV, the rest was just "meh" kind of stuff on the frames. Gotta love how it wants to show a CAD-ish look right at the end of all times. Of course, go figure that after the 18z is over, now Allan's site suddenly updates for me. Guess it was a caching issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You guys are dissing the 18Z when its showing this???? This is a lot like the 12Z from the other day. Sure, it's a pipe dream, but at least we're starting to see some pipe dreams show up in the LR. If the H5 map were to verify like that, that is a MAJOR snowstorm for many....very cold air just to the north, big high pressure building in, split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You guys are dissing the 18Z when its showing this???? This is a lot like the 12Z from the other day. Sure, it's a pipe dream, but at least we're starting to see some pipe dreams show up in the LR. If the H5 map were to verify like that, that is a MAJOR snowstorm for many....very cold air just to the north, big high pressure building in, split flow. right there with ya...van denton actually mentioned @ 6:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 right there with ya...van denton actually mentioned @ 6:00. I wish I could see Van's daily weather casts. I grew up watching WGHP and Frank Deal. I remember when Van first started. He's a very nice guy, and a good met. But Greg Fishel will do, I guess. (Greg's the best.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well the 18z ens is showing a little bit of hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 keep hope alive I've got plenty enough to go round..This winter is FAR from over and I really feel weve got good times ahead for the second half...time will tell but I think alot of people who post in this forum will be happy down the stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I've got plenty enough to go round..This winter is FAR from over and I really feel weve got good times ahead for the second half...time will tell but I think alot of people who post in this forum will be happy down the stretch Anyone who cancels winter on the 3rd of January is a fool, so yeah, agreed. But ensemble members from a single run of a model that flip flops more than a fish out of water offers me about zero hope. I have yet to see a nice storm with SN in Raleigh be consistantly shown by 2+ models. This winter is definitely beyond frustrating at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 typical NC winter. Everything has to be perfect to wintry weather. Moisture chasing cold cold chasing moisture. Never seem to get a perfect setup. I do believe we will get wintry weather but don't know when. Hopefully this time next year we are buried in it. i hate cold air like we have now without moisture. Just miserable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Patience, dear weenies. We will get into a good pattern soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Last night everyone was optimistic now there is some sadness? What's dramatically changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Patience, dear weenies. We will get into a good pattern soon enough. +1 Last night everyone was optimistic now there is some sadness? What's dramatically changed? model madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Last night everyone was optimistic now there is some sadness? What's dramatically changed? I've learned from the pattern recently that you're only as sad as the next model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Last night everyone was optimistic now there is some sadness? What's dramatically changed? +1. It's one day folks. Things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Patience, dear weenies. We will get into a good pattern soon enough. No doubt the GFS ensembles have been rock solid for days now showing the AO going in the tank. Now the Euro op & ens as well as GFS op are trending this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Anyone who cancels winter on the 3rd of January is a fool, so yeah, agreed. But ensemble members from a single run of a model that flip flops more than a fish out of water offers me about zero hope. I have yet to see a nice storm with SN in Raleigh be consistantly shown by 2+ models. This winter is definitely beyond frustrating at this point. lol don't kill the messenger. I just had nothing better to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Patience, dear weenies. We will get into a good pattern soon enough. Last night everyone was optimistic now there is some sadness? What's dramatically changed? Agreed. I think folks watching models 4 times a day will get their brains and hopes crushed. Best to view the big picture. We just had an extremely close call with a deep, cold core cutoff that could have made a whopper of a Southeast or east coast snowstorm. ECMWF a week to 10 days ago showed this, but in the end, was too progressive. Thats a bias to keep in mind. We're probably entering the last legs of the long lived +AO regime. Some guidance says so, but more importantly , the past says so. They don't last forever, just like last years strong -NAO pattern didnt' last through Winter. The best could be yet to come. This could be one of many Winters that had a warm Nov/Dec and that turned into quite a good late January and February pattern. I still say of all the years I've ever followed weather, which is 42 year LOL, this particular year has about some of the most potential for the Southeast I can remember. In Nino's, we fight warm advection and storm tracks. In traditional ninas, we are usually dry (many areas not really applicable now). Never any guarantees but if blocking occurs, we're probably in for it. If double blocking occurs, which some of my thinking says they're hints of, that really ups the chance of a memorable season. Only time will tell though. I doubt the models will get anything modeled correctly in this chaotic flow for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I wish I could see Van's daily weather casts. I grew up watching WGHP and Frank Deal. I remember when Van first started. He's a very nice guy, and a good met. But Greg Fishel will do, I guess. (Greg's the best.) Van fired up his snow gun last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Van fired up his snow gun last night. Well it's on then. 2nd half of Winter will be awesome. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 PSD Ensemble continues with the idea of a major ridge developing west of Alaska, connecting to ridging on the other side of the pole, with a neutral NAO developing. Keeps the SE near normal in the extended. Coldest air decends into all of western Canada and Alaska. Definite pattern change from the staunchly positive AO, but may take a while to get consistent cold down into the conus. Map below is at hr360, but the ridging west of Alaska begins as early as hr216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Any at or above average temps in NC will have to wait until weekend at earliest. The mean temp will be below average Friday and th high temp will struggle in only +2 to +3 850's if their isn't enough sun or a slight NE breeze. We will see how long are warmup in NC is gonna last here on the GFS in a minute. Edit: Oops looks like Friday will be +5-+6 in NC. So Friday will begin the mini warmup. 30 hours later Saturday p.m. 850's are back to 0 in mtns and +1 to +2 in western half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lol don't kill the messenger. I just had nothing better to do. Knew you'd know I was giving you a shoutout no matter how I worded that haha. I'm just bitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Check out hr 162-168: ENC Speacil I like whats setting up back west @ 168...curious to see where this run goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I like whats setting up back west @ 168...curious to see where this run goes ...all I see at 171 hours is an open wave over South Texas and northern stream energy over Western Montana. No cold air in place in the Eastern US. I don't see the excitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Southern stream shears out over New Orleans at 183...there is some low pressure in the Gulf. Also nice bundle of energy coming across the Rockies at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 keeping eye on gom @ 180...somethings up It's just from that dying wave, gonna rain itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Dang...what a trough at 192... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z GFS isn't good for se snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Days 8-10...massive trough coming into the Eastern US...Pacific ridge with a closed off high in California. That to me is a good setup for another cold air dump late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Days 8-10...massive trough coming into the Eastern US...Pacific ridge with a closed off high in California. That to me is a good setup for another cold air dump late next week. A little like what we have now, although a bit warmer. It warms back up quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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