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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Regarding the (03 Jan 12Z) Euro 850 Ts hours 204-210 and ULL:

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place.

To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha.

The UL shears out a bit as the next more progressive trough catches up. Still that is plenty of upward motion for the mountains. The Euro physics appear to be functioning correctly, but I won't put any chips on the forecast that far out.

The 850 charts are a result of the interaction between the UL and more progressive tough (#2). You'll get a little WAA ahead of #2 but the CAA behind #1 continues. The net is a static 850 zero line. Yes, billiard ball meteorology sometimes works, lol.

That being said I prefer the warmer GFS solution. Still golden for the mountains post-frontal, but probably not much with the lead UL. The Euro operational continues to rush a -AO which I doubt. In this case the GFS has been doing better due to its handling of the +AO. The upcoming pattern change looks cold in the West and Plains first with the AK ridge. Until the AO flips, the major fun will remain upstream.

I am liking the mountains more now though. :ski:

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Regarding the (03 Jan 12Z) Euro 850 Ts hours 204-210 and ULL:

The UL shears out a bit as the next more progressive trough catches up. Still that is plenty of upward motion for the mountains. The Euro physics appear to be functioning correctly, but I won't put any chips on the forecast that far out.

The 850 charts are a result of the interaction between the UL and more progressive tough (#2). You'll get a little WAA ahead of #2 but the CAA behind #1 continues. The net is a static 850 zero line. Yes, billiard ball meteorology sometimes works, lol.

That being said I prefer the warmer GFS solution. Still golden for the mountains post-frontal, but probably not much with the lead UL. The Euro operational continues to rush a -AO which I doubt. In this case the GFS has been doing better due to its handling of the +AO. The upcoming pattern change looks cold in the West and Plains first with the AK ridge. Until the AO flips, the major fun will remain upstream.

I am liking the mountains more now though. :ski:

Thanks for the explanation! Always enjoy it when you post.

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Def. just you. It loaded up fine for me and others during the PBP.

To be honest, I had a similar issue when I was attempting to follow the 12z GFS and instead went to use instantweathermaps. Does it on all of my browsers (Mozilla, Opera, and Explorer). If it loaded for you, I'm not entirely sure why it doesn't for certain folks. It was like this with the 0z Euro last night as well.

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To be honest, I had a similar issue when I was attempting to follow the 12z GFS and instead went to use instantweathermaps. Does it on all of my browsers (Mozilla, Opera, and Explorer). If it loaded for you, I'm not entirely sure why it doesn't for certain folks. It was like this with the 0z Euro last night as well.

Odd I know sometimes there are some caching issues with the maps...maybe that was it. Seemed from the PBP no one else was having that issue. I'm using SV maps though and usually they are money.

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If we can get a good, sustained 6-8 week cold and stormy pattern, that should be enough to "save" the season, so to speak.

JMO but 2 weeks of sustained cold, if we are lucky. It just has that feel to it. Yeah I know, I'm not backing my opinion up with data. I've been through 64 winters. My whole body is an analog. :cry:

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JMO but 2 weeks of sustained cold, if we are lucky. It just has that feel to it. Yeah I know, I'm not backing my opinion up with data. I've been through 64 winters. My whole body is an analog. :cry:

I know you have the sad face but that made me lol literally in my cubical.

As for the 18z that second piece of energy at 111 is digging way SW in southern Cali.

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