POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wilkes County Schools are closed next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. I think they know something. Just my two cents tho...take that w/ a grain of salt. mlk day monday, probably end of semester tues and wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possibility. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 mlk day monday, probably end of semester tues and wed Gas the fleet up, Gotta be ready to roll when the GFS speaks! But I would like to see at least another model get on board at 00z, Before becoming least bit excited!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possiblity. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? our local news just did. Fox 8 Van Denton said definitely had to watch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possibility. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? Because public forecasting is mostly about managing expectations rather than being deadly accurate in the 7 day forecast. You call for a snowstorm in the south, and it doesn't happen, you hear from the public. Plus it can be damaging to your career. I've noticed that most public mets (tv and otherwise) will adjust their 7 day to climo the further out it goes (especially with poor run to run continuity and a wide ensemble spread) If you forecast 40 and sunny 7 days out, and you slowly drop your high temps and add in pop rain/snow and then once within 3-4 days, or when models group around a specific outcome, you can be more bold in your forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possibility. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? Considering the GFS is the only model showing this, and it is 6-7 days away, not much needs to be said IMO. Its a very small window for error on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This Op run of the GFS has once again only minimal support from the ensembles, either Euro or GFS. Nice to look at and not totally impossible I suppose, but we need to see a lot more evidence than this. If it has ANY support, that's probably more than 12z. Maybe a step toward the GFS scoring a big win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 our local news just did. Fox 8 Van Denton said definitely had to watch it well finally someone has the balls to say something could be on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possibility. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? our local news just did. Fox 8 Van Denton said definitely had to watch it Why would they 5-6 days away when there is less than a 50% chance of it verifying and only one major model shows it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It looks as if the Euro weeklies, *****fwiw****, finally may be suggesting a bit of a -NAO during late Jan. to early Feb. from what I can tell. Another thread is saying they are showing a torch. What are they showing for the 500h/850T anomalies for the NE? If they show torch for down here than so be it but if they are showing torch for NE than you really have to question there effectiveness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 why is it that none of the weather stations and channels are not at least showing a hint of this storm? All they show is partly cloudy or sunny and a high in the 40's. I really believe there is a good chance around the 16th but when I look at the extended or read HPC no one even mentions the possibility. Are they afraid to say at least the potential is there for snow sleet and fz for parts of the upper southeast? Really liking the setup on the GFS. Very traditional looking winterstorm setup for the southeast. Right after a strong cold front, low dewpoints, HP, 50/50 low, and stj influence. Would like to see some other models climb on board before getting excited. This Op run of the GFS has once again only minimal support from the ensembles, either Euro or GFS. Nice to look at and not totally impossible I suppose, but we need to see a lot more evidence than this. This would be a sizeable Winter storm on the northern shield. And throw in some in-situ CAD strongly for the Carolinas, where the whole event is freezing or frozen from about Durham to Spartanburg. The 5H pattern fits climo of good Winter Storms, but take this with a huge grain of salt right no. The timing of the ejection will have to fall in the right time frame, as one diving wave captures it, without crushing it, bringing it into some cold air with low dewpoints and good placed high. If the system sharpens up the warmth aloft will come in and make this more of a snow threat for Ky to DC region. Really want to see it stay supressed. The cold dry in Carolinas is very impressive with dewpoints in low teens to high single digits just before precip arrives. Thats why it helps lock in freezing temps in the Piedmont and Upstate through the event. Which with that surface track also fits climo Winter storms. This isn't a given yet, but a flat wave is possible even with leaving the bulk of the cutoff out west. Looks like a typical Piedmont Winter storm with several inches of snow and then sleet and freezing rain on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 well finally someone has the balls to say something could be on the horizon. he usually does say something before anyone on tv, Matthew East says it most of the time to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Why would they 5-6 days away when there is less than a 50% chance of it verifying and only one major model shows it? oh I agree, guess I'm frustrated with the winter so far. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 he usually does say something before anyone on tv, Matthew East says it most of the time to Saying that they are "watching a system late weekend" is about all i would say on the tube this early on. I'll add this I hope like hell you get to put your fleet in action Sunday or Monday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've personally been excited about this time frame for awhile and felt that this weekend would be where to watch for winter weather...of course I was one or two days off but yea I certainly am not throwing in the towel at all. If GFS scores the coup it will make a lot of people question the Euro in the future. already questioning the euro after the slaughtering from February to about November here. Now we're entering the time frame of where the ecmwf usually outperforms the GFS. I think the GFS is amplifying the western Canada wave, whereas ecm is using that to make a clipper instead. I have no idea which is right but 3 runs of the GFS makes me wonder if its on to something. If it keeps it a few more runs the others may join it. Who knows yet. Typically, others would join it, GFS lose it, then bring it back 2 days before. The fact that pattern is changing makes it hard for any consistency on the models, but usually pattern changes also coincide with pretty big events. Could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Saying that they are "watching a system late weekend" is about all i would say on the tube this early on. I'll add this I hope like hell you get to put your fleet in action Sunday or Monday!! If I don't I am sure I will soon. I like how we look in future. i am to the point I am not excited until 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 already questioning the euro after the slaughtering from February to about November here. Now we're entering the time frame of where the ecmwf usually outperforms the GFS. I think the GFS is amplifying the western Canada wave, whereas ecm is using that to make a clipper instead. I have no idea which is right but 3 runs of the GFS makes me wonder if its on to something. If it keeps it a few more runs the others may join it. Who knows yet. Typically, others would join it, GFS lose it, then bring it back 2 days before. The fact that pattern is changing makes it hard for any consistency on the models, but usually pattern changes also coincide with pretty big events. Could go either way. And that difference is not 144 hours out its only 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 @wxbrad: GFS is very bullish on snow chances in Charlotte Sunday into Monday, but EURO is still not on board. From Brad Panovich with WCNC 36 in CLT. One of the best in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 . If GFS scores the coup it will make a lot of people question the Euro in the future. No, not really...guess I will always be a Euro Trash Met...Broken clock theory on this one...I think we have all seen the GFS do this before. However, if it is true, I am sure it will be the subject of discussion for the next 5 winters... Have not seen the Euro weeklies yet...my cohort has been on the road all day and has not forwarded but one of the services we use shows near normal week 1, above week 2 and 3, near normal week 4....Week 4 is the first week of Feb...There is very little cold anywhere in CONUS during the 4 weeks. However, with the major flux in the extended ensembles, I am taking this run with a grain of salt even tho I have thrown in the towel a couple of days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 mlk day monday, probably end of semester tues and wed MLK, No Day, and Required Prof. Development. Van Denton is always enthusiastic about snow chances for our area. Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV It appears the last half of January will be colder and possibly active. Snow fans, your time may be soon. Don't read too much into this....but something to chew on. 1959-60 was our snowiest winter on record. However, Dec and January had very little. Dec 1959 41.4 avg temp was near normal Snowfall Trace way below normal Jan 1960 39.7 avg temp was also near normal Snowfall 1.8 inches below normal Feb 1960 38.7 was a little colder than normal Snowfall 8.6 inches well above normal Mar 1960 35.1 was the coldest on record for a March Snowfall 21.3 Way above normal With regard to El Nino or La Nina....it was considered to be neither. http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm El Nino La Nina Seasons Years Consensusggweather.com Expert on California and San Francisco Bay Weather and Climate. Like · · Share · about an hour ago · 60 people like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro has not been consistent at all, not much difference between the two, however most think its always right but look at the last couple of years and its track record is not that good. Last year on December 22nd it lost the Christmas storm that it showed a foot and a half of snow on it. Then after NAM showed on Christmas Eve it picked it back up so I don't think any of the models are worth betting on, but I am just a landscaper so what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I've personally been excited about this time frame for awhile and felt that this weekend would be where to watch for winter weather...of course I was one or two days off but yea I certainly am not throwing in the towel at all. If GFS scores the coup it will make a lot of people question the Euro in the future. Like you burger, I've been watching this for a long time also. Below is a post that I made on Jan. 4th. The system that is looking like an apps runner is around 1/9 or 1/10 time frame. After that system makes it's way north, we're hoping that storm will help bring down some artic air to the eastern conus. Imo the system that needs to be watched is the s/w sliding down on the backside of the trough around hr 192 on the 18z gfs. It will be making it's way east at the same time the NAO is proposed to go negative. If this s/w continues to show up in future runs this is a time frame I'll be looking at. Could be nothing but we'll have to wait and see. But I still believe there needs to be more model support before things get real interesting. Like everyone else I'm pulling for this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 MLK, No Day, and Required Prof. Development. Van Denton is always enthusiastic about snow chances for our area. Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV It appears the last half of January will be colder and possibly active. Snow fans, your time may be soon. Don't read too much into this....but something to chew on. 1959-60 was our snowiest winter on record. However, Dec and January had very little. Dec 1959 41.4 avg temp was near normal Snowfall Trace way below normal Jan 1960 39.7 avg temp was also near normal Snowfall 1.8 inches below normal Feb 1960 38.7 was a little colder than normal Snowfall 8.6 inches well above normal Mar 1960 35.1 was the coldest on record for a March Snowfall 21.3 Way above normal With regard to El Nino or La Nina....it was considered to be neither. http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm El Nino La Nina Seasons Years Consensusggweather.com Expert on California and San Francisco Bay Weather and Climate. Like · · Share · about an hour ago · 60 people like this. I sat in his office last year talking to him. He is a great guy and the best met around here on tv imo. He told me he would say more on the air but he is not allowed in case of a bust. He said people would call and complain if he didn't get it right. He does take a chance and at least mentions it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro has not been consistent at all, not much difference between the two, however most think its always right but look at the last couple of years and its track record is not that good. Last year on December 22nd it lost the Christmas storm that it showed a foot and a half of snow on it. Then after NAM showed on Christmas Eve it picked it back up so I don't think any of the models are worth betting on, but I am just a landscaper so what do I know Im with ya brother...remember it well, and which ever is right this time doesn't mean a dang thing for the next storm...really! Not in this flow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well channel 13 weather is at least showing a 30 percent chance now for rain changing to a mix both sunday and monday for the asheville area. its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eric Thomas with WBTV in Charlotte pulled up the GFS model on air and showed its snow output for this storm in question. He made it clear it's the only model showin this but also said the GFS has been spot on lately and that's what they have been basing most of their forecasts on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Im with ya brother...remember it well, and which ever is right this time doesn't mean a dang thing for the next storm...really! Not in this flow anyway Get excited friday if it still there! And that is Friday night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm reading and waiting. I'm in waiting till 48 hours trying not to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's pretty amazing the differences in the AO forecast for GFS/EURO...Is there something broken with the GFS AO forecast off Allan's model page? 12z ENS EURO 12z ENS GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No, not really...guess I will always be a Euro Trash Met...Broken clock theory on this one...I think we have all seen the GFS do this before. However, if it is true, I am sure it will be the subject of discussion for the next 5 winters... Have not seen the Euro weeklies yet...my cohort has been on the road all day and has not forwarded but one of the services we use shows near normal week 1, above week 2 and 3, near normal week 4....Week 4 is the first week of Feb...There is very little cold anywhere in CONUS during the 4 weeks. However, with the major flux in the extended ensembles, I am taking this run with a grain of salt even tho I have thrown in the towel a couple of days ago... You old goat! Guess us youngins will never learn. I was curious for something like Euro weeklies which I'm guessing come from WSI? Do you have any idea how much a package like that costs? Is it in the $5k per year range? $10k? You may not know but seems like something you might have an idea on. By the way I hope your towel gets cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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