Snow haven Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow..this run is gonna blow up the board... Just wait a day or two this probably won't show up like this, not trying to be discouraging but true. I figured the best thing to do is look at the models and wait to see if it verifys. The models did this all last winter, had a good snow solution then it never did verify. But again always good to see just wait and see how it handles it in the days ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 One thing of interest though is that this is the third run in a row on the GFS that has the same basic solution albeit each run gets a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Just wait a day or two this probably won't show up like this, not trying to be discouraging but true. I figured the best thing to do is look at the models and wait to see if it verifys. The models did this all last winter, had a good snow solution then it never did verify. But again always good to see just wait and see how it handles it in the days ahead haha I was here last winter, I remember! I'm not saying I buy the solution, I wouldn't put money on it...I'm just saying the board will blow up (and it has) due to the output...The 0z runs will be important as will the ensemble members. If the euro has it tonight, many more will be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 interesting. 18z dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll be more interested as soon as another model shows this solution (and not the dgex). I've seen this movie before. Now if the euro, ggem, or ukmet starts to show this then is the time jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Need that low in Fla. not Savannah. There is time if the rain Wed. verifies. Then it would seem the tracks are edging lower. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Need that low in Fla. not Savannah. There is time if the rain Wed. verifies. Then it would seem the tracks are edging lower. T The extended NAM (which i heard may use some GFS properties let me know please?) has a gulf system also. If we really want to have good cold air, it would in "theory" supress it more southward. It may end up robbing far northern NC of the big totals though if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll be more interested as soon as another model shows this solution (and not the dgex). I've seen this movie before. Now if the euro, ggem, or ukmet starts to show this then is the time jump on board. True, but as burger mentioned, it's a trend that seems to continue, still too far out for me to buy into but extremely encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The extended NAM (which i heard may use some GFS properties let me know please?) has a gulf system also. If we really want to have good cold air, it would in "theory" supress it more southward. It may end up robbing far northern NC of the big totals though if that were to happen. Extended NAM = DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Extended NAM = DGEX Yeah, I'm trying to find a model info page explaining if it's all the NAM data or a blend of that and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The extended NAM (which i heard may use some GFS properties let me know please?) has a gulf system also. If we really want to have good cold air, it would in "theory" supress it more southward. It may end up robbing far northern NC of the big totals though if that were to happen. Always that caa/waa fight And what works for me screws someone else. But it doesn't look cold enough with the low in Sav. Of course, Joe will make out like a bandit, lol. That's why he might be the smartest snow lover on this board. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah, I'm trying to find a model info page explaining if it's all the NAM data or a blend of that and GFS. http://www.nws.noaa...._User_Guide.htm 18z run uses the 12z GFS lateral boundary conditions (LBC) run at the NAMs higher res, so it should look similar to the 12z global, if it does not, then that would be a reason for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa...._User_Guide.htm 18z run uses the 12z GFS lateral boundary conditions (LBC) run at the NAMs higher res, so it should look similar to the 12z global, if it does not, then that would be a reason for concern. Thanks! I saw that link 2nd on Google but didn't click it for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Need that low in Fla. not Savannah. There is time if the rain Wed. verifies. Then it would seem the tracks are edging lower. T Tony is absolutely correct. The low crossing N or C FL pen. is definitely preferred for ATL to get major snow as the primary precip. type., especially south metro. Otherwise, any snow would normally changeover farily early. However, there have been a few KATL major snow cases for which the sfc low crossed the FL Panhandle into far S GA and out near Sav. So, it isn't impossible. By the way, as depicted, the 18Z is giving the N ATL burbs a major snow of 4-5" fwiw. The 3/1993 blizzard was a different and very unusual scenario as the precip. was all rain or a while because of too far north a track, but it changed over to a major snow once the low was passing and colder air plunged down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It would be nice if another model agreed with it, but it's nice that 3 runs in a row now have had a wintery type event in roughly 6 days. Won't be long now. Cliff divers returning in 4....3....2..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll take the 18z GFS snow accumulation map at 144 please. Shows about 5 inches IMBY. Although its unlikely to happen, at least something is being shown out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Won't be long now. Cliff divers returning in 4....3....2..... I'm still on the edge don't worry, I took a single step back but still here. One model run is not going to bring me back from the edge, it took two months of painful model runs to get me there. That said it was a beautiful run but no telling if it sticks or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Need that low in Fla. not Savannah. There is time if the rain Wed. verifies. Then it would seem the tracks are edging lower. T Need that low crossing south of Tampa/Orlando shooting up inland or on the coast of Jax .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 well hopefully GFS is seeing it first even though its alone, but if not at least something is showing within 10 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm still on the edge don't worry, I took a single step back but still here. One model run is not going to bring me back from the edge, it took two months of painful model runs to get me there. That said it was a beautiful run but no telling if it sticks or not. You might experience less anxiety and an overall feeling of peace by not looking at each "model run" per se, but the direction the atmosphere seems to be inclined to pursue. Model specifics = stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You might experience less anxiety and an overall feeling of peace by not looking at each "model run" per se, but the direction the atmosphere seems to be inclined to pursue. Model specifics = stock market. I am and have been looking at the big picture, if you read my posts from earlier today and earlier this week I lay out exactly why I'm concerned and it has nothing to do with a single model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It would be nice if another model agreed with it, but it's nice that 3 runs in a row now have had a wintery type event in roughly 6 days. Gotta remember GFS is on an island right now. 00z again will be the runs to watch...then every run for the next 4 days Nice 850 closed feature at 147. #whycantthisbetheeuro One thing of interest though is that this is the third run in a row on the GFS that has the same basic solution albeit each run gets a little colder. I'll be more interested as soon as another model shows this solution (and not the dgex). I've seen this movie before. Now if the euro, ggem, or ukmet starts to show this then is the time jump on board. Not sure about yall but the GFS track record for the last year or more has been tops for the upstate of SC. It has held its ground for the most part giving us some type of wet event late this weekend so i'd say it's noteworthy, yea it may be pretty much by itself right now but i'm not throwing it out. I agree not to get over zealous about the threat this far out, I never do until the 48hr mark. That's been my motto since following this stuff for the last 3 years...48hrs!! I admit im a little excited but not overly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It looks as if the Euro weeklies, *****fwiw****, finally may be suggesting a bit of a -NAO during late Jan. to early Feb. from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thanks! I saw that link 2nd on Google but didn't click it for some reason. Just for more clarification The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the WRF-NMM is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions. Click here to see the computational domain of the DGEX runs over the CONUS and Alaska. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexhome.ops/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This would be a sizeable Winter storm on the northern shield. And throw in some in-situ CAD strongly for the Carolinas, where the whole event is freezing or frozen from about Durham to Spartanburg. The 5H pattern fits climo of good Winter Storms, but take this with a huge grain of salt right no. The timing of the ejection will have to fall in the right time frame, as one diving wave captures it, without crushing it, bringing it into some cold air with low dewpoints and good placed high. If the system sharpens up the warmth aloft will come in and make this more of a snow threat for Ky to DC region. Really want to see it stay supressed. The cold dry in Carolinas is very impressive with dewpoints in low teens to high single digits just before precip arrives. Thats why it helps lock in freezing temps in the Piedmont and Upstate through the event. Which with that surface track also fits climo Winter storms. This isn't a given yet, but a flat wave is possible even with leaving the bulk of the cutoff out west. Looks like a typical Piedmont Winter storm with several inches of snow and then sleet and freezing rain on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This Op run of the GFS has once again only minimal support from the ensembles, either Euro or GFS. Nice to look at and not totally impossible I suppose, but we need to see a lot more evidence than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not sure about yall but the GFS track record for the last year or more has been tops for the upstate of SC. It has held its ground for the most part giving us some type of wet event late this weekend so i'd say it's noteworthy, yea it may be pretty much by itself right now but i'm not throwing it out. I agree not to get over zealous about the threat this far out, I never do until the 48hr mark. That's been my motto since following this stuff for the last 3 years...48hrs!! I admit im a little excited but not overly. I've personally been excited about this time frame for awhile and felt that this weekend would be where to watch for winter weather...of course I was one or two days off but yea I certainly am not throwing in the towel at all. If GFS scores the coup it will make a lot of people question the Euro in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I am and have been looking at the big picture, if you read my posts from earlier today and earlier this week I lay out exactly why I'm concerned and it has nothing to do with a single model run. I'm just joshin' you friend. I know what you have been saying and it is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Really liking the setup on the GFS. Very traditional looking winterstorm setup for the southeast. Right after a strong cold front, low dewpoints, HP, 50/50 low, and stj influence. Would like to see some other models climb on board before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This Op run of the GFS has once again only minimal support from the ensembles, either Euro or GFS. Nice to look at and not totally impossible I suppose, but we need to see a lot more evidence than this. Wilkes County Schools are closed next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. I think they know something. Just my two cents tho...take that w/ a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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