burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z is going to be surprise surprise different from the 12z. Should be interesting to see where the energy that was diving into the Rockies ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Low forming off TX in GOM and temps are slightly colder on this run out to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Hey guys. Yeah, my thinking remains the same as on the video this morning. Watch between about the 4:45 and 7:00 mark. I am favoring the more sustained cold remaining over the northern roughly half of the country as the most likely scenario. But I expect occasional shots of arctic air into the Southeast. And yes, I also stated that the overall patten doesn't look too bad for those looking for wintry weather chances down the road. You don't want cold and dry to overwhelm the pattern. Something like this, with a vast supply of cold air close by, is not a bad look. Monster highs will likely move from the northern Plains into the Northeast, giving us at least a shot of some CAD scenarios. But if we do wind up seeing the NAO tank, then that is when you could get ugly cold into our region. But these are challenging forecast times, and any and all forecast ideas must be subject to alteration or trashing altogether. Great video and thanks for explaining things. Seems like it's a wait and see were the blocking can set up and if the darn NAO would ever go negative we just might be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @126 nice low heading east. This run might be a bit more suppressed than 12z....still looks like temps will been an issue verbatim by the time it makes it to us but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL at model cluelessness. Isn't the 18z GFS run off of 12z GFS data? Yet, comparing 12z at 120 hours to 18z at 114 is hilarious. 12z had a closed low off the SE Alaskan coast pumping up the ridge. 18z run has no such feature at all. Low forming off TX in GOM and temps are slightly colder on this run out to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Low forming off TX in GOM and temps are slightly colder on this run out to 120. Would like to see the High better than 1027-1029, but not in a bad position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Light snow spreads across northern MS and AL at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL at model cluelessness. Isn't the 18z GFS run off of 12z GFS data? Yet, comparing 12z at 120 hours to 18z at 114 is hilarious. 12z had a closed low off the SE Alaskan coast pumping up the ridge. 18z run has no such feature at all. Yep night and day but it appears to be coming close to the same solution in the end though we might not see that elastic band of moisture the 12z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Snow into NC at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Might be snow in far N GA...thickness is not conducive for snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z GFS looks interesting into 135 hours. Looks like if the SE were to even get snow, WAA may kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This looks to be a good run for I-40 N in NC probably from HKY to GSO. MBY it's probably too aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is looking like a good run for lovers of snow in NC. CLT is right on the line...but that WAA may be over done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The snow really gets going across the NC Apps, through a portion of north GA, and NW SC at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Might be snow in far N GA...thickness is not conducive for snow though. right north of clt is a possibility 540 wise. It has the 850 0c cutting off around CAE through 138. Edit: to be a bit furth south with a sn chance, we would want this to be a bit more suppressed. that waa kills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @147 still snowing in NC. GSO looks to be the big winner on this run...might be a good 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks too good to be true but I like what I see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @150 CLT is def all snow as the system is pulling away 0 line runs from CAE to RDU and RDU might be in heavy snow at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks too good to be true but I like what I see here. Yea wait until around 153 those totals might look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow..this run is gonna blow up the board... Just a little bit more South to get everyone in on something wintry would be wonderful. We shall see future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z shifts snow axis east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's around 8 inches along a portion of the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow..this run is gonna blow up the board... It would be nice if another model agreed with it, but it's nice that 3 runs in a row now have had a wintery type event in roughly 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow..this run is gonna blow up the board... Bad news is that line is very close and anytime your that close you usually fall on the wrong end. Same for CLT on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Gotta remember GFS is on an island right now. 00z again will be the runs to watch...then every run for the next 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's only Jan 9 for crissake, get a grip. This is not Boston, it's Georgia. We are due for a less snowy winter, but to give up now is just nutty. All it takes is one well-timed S/W, a closed low in early March, you never know. Will I be surprised if we get now real snow/ice this winter? No. However throwing in the towel this early is not very prudent, but to each his/her own. well said. it seems like a lot of people have forgotten what "normal" se winters are like. the last two were EXTREME exceptions, at least for mby. over four feet of snow in two winters? multiple 6"+ snowstorms in the same year? the bitter cold and long lasting snow? the list goes on and on. this is a more normal winter. and after being on the boards for many of these horrible winters this is why lol. no snow and model hoping. the last two winters were the exception, this is the norm and none of us can change it. as you said we are just now in prime winter wx territory. even in ne ga flurries or a dusting is about the most before jan any given year. and mid jan to early march is when most of us normally see winter wx. just one set up with cold air, a disturbance moving by and some snow. 2" or more at any one time is great in n ga, anyway, even after the last two years. the models look like they have in the past. unreliable out past a few days. many of us grew up without being able to see models or radar online (yeah i just dated myself haha). on the other hand, this lack of winter wx has given me a lot more "free" time (and work time) the last couple of weeks without being glued to the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Interesting to see it hold firm with a storm, but my guess is that it's completely gone by 0z. I'd love to have a serving of crow on this one though and have something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice 850 closed feature at 147. #whycantthisbetheeuro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We need it to develop into a true trough instead of SLP off a front. The cold get's bottled up to the NW, if it was trough we would have a true winter storm. Probably wrong anyways, but it's nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It would be nice if another model agreed with it, but it's nice that 3 runs in a row now have had a wintery type event in roughly 6 days. Agreed. This is the first time I've been excited about a run, though, which I shouldn't be considering the flipping of the models lately. I was excited before it showed it IMBY...this is the setup we've been waiting to see <200hrs. Bad news is that line is very close and anytime your that close you usually fall on the wrong end. Same for CLT on this run. haha Me and Widre know far too well...central NC is like flipping a coin as far as where that 0c line sets up and usually it ends as snow here after raining for a few hours...but I'll take what I can get this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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