FallsLake Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's really not a bad setup. We have all the major players in place - western ridge, and somewhat of a 50/50 low, and a STJ s/w moving across. And the models tend to have problems handeling CAD setups. Especially if there is initally a lot of cold air (i.e. low dew pts) in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS Ens Mean is colder and the low is SE of the OP, which was to be expected, curious to see the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We all know what happened in March of '93.... Its a very wild run, don't read too much into specifics. The big key is that blocking (notable blocking of atleast 100m) for 5 days or longer is a pretty big deal and having 2 blocks is a greater deal. We've had double blocks before, February 1993, and December or January 2000 if I recall. And in similar locations as blocking is preferred in Alaska or Bering Straight and again in Greenland or Scandinavia or UK region. When blocks happen, they alter the flow about everywhere and create unusual events, that can persist. Eg. floods in dry areas, warmth in usually cold areas, cold in warm sunny areas, and snow in places that don't see much. Almost every single major blocking event in the Dec-March time frame I've studied ended up with unusual Southeast Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 no met here but I think it is a legitimate concern IMHO Too early for exact placement yet. I've been watching the east blocking and so far don't like it. It appears a little too east based but it's still very early. At least we're starting to see things in the general location they need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I lived in Wisconsin in 93 , can you fill me in? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 12z gfs is an interesting look at what "can" happen as this pattern unfolds, but until other models come on board with SOMETHING similar, I would temper any excitement. I am just saying something we probably all understand ..................so it's more for me than you guys/girls. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Either nobody wanted to answer or my question was lost in the recent GFS run analysis. sorry but...bump.. Wasn't this kind of the same Q&A? NCMET, on 08 January 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:Here's what I am worried about...seen the EURO ensembles yet? Look at how far west that Alaskan block retrogrades at the end of the run and where the polar vortex is positioned (WELL to the north). Without a block over the far Northern Atlantic, how are you going to lodge the cold south? Have you seen the ensembles last few days? Or been following them this Season? They change daily, even though they only run out to day 10. Also, its proven in several blocking studies I just finished (and know from 20 + years of forecasting) that ecmwf doesn't handle the pre-block or mature block or decaying block period well, and this blocking will go well beyond its short range. Most likely what happens is when the block cuts off in west or north Canada it stays in that general area and that will leave a weak vortex under it just offshor the Pac NW. South of there will be the other branch of the westerlies, aka split flow. With western Greenland and the Northeast US still under a cold vortex that stretches the flow east to west across the country but what the models wont see are the ejected shortwaves in either the polar flow or stj flow, which will likely amplify. And with the coldest part of the vortex right in the middle of Hudson's Bay region and High Pressure all throughout western and central and northern Canada, the cold will literally stretch thousands of miles south of the polar jet. I've seen that quite a few times, even under warmer than normal heights. Its common in cold airmasses of this -30 to -40 nature. Any system will pull cold air further south and east as the sytem goes by , toward Greenland. Now eventually the block will decay or re-form elsewhere but thats too far out to really speculate. I'm basing my forecast and reasoning on climo and past analogs similar. But you're right if the block heads too far north, then things would change in the flow in a hurry, but so far the GFS and ECMWF don't show that early on, and GFS never really does through the run. I guess its still possible all the cold dumps totally down into the western part of the trough, but with Greenland and the northeast 50/50 vortex that would still argue for significant cold to remain in the east a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wasn't this kind of the same Q&A? Thank you, yes it is pretty much what I was asking, don't understand how I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There was a lot going on with that Superstorm including some huge phasing...but I guess anything is possible down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thank you, yes it is pretty much what I was asking, don't understand how I missed that. Don't know how I remembered to be honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not that anyone was asking but the Canadian has a descent track but temps are way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z GFS Ens Mean is colder and the low is SE of the OP, which was to be expected, curious to see the individual members. Same here, I could pull 4 or 5 from the 0 and 6z runs with an interesting look, 6z op maybe a little slower compared to the ens consensus. Based on the 12z mean @ 156, I would bet there are a half dozen members giving someone S of the VA boarder love. Don't like that pesky low north of the Great Lakes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Either nobody wanted to answer or my question was lost in the recent GFS run analysis. sorry but...bump.. I would think blocking further west toward the alleutians would only be good if we could score some blocking in Greenland. Being centered there would probably yield a -PNA, which would allow the southeast ridge to be somewhat present as any storm dropping into the southwest would be very hard pressed to head due east without some sort of blocking or confluence. Meaning it wouldn't take much for them to gain latitude and bring waa into play, at least for areas west of the apps (without any CAD) It will probably be hard to pop a -NAO until the big canadian vortex begins to move further south, which looks to happen later on the models. Being a novice, a met can correct me if anything is out of line with my comment. Or you can just see Roberts post that i missed b/c i was trying to answer a question. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 For cold wx and rain lovers, the 12Z gfs fwiw gives some heavy, cold rain love to KATL with a whopping 2.5" of rainfall and temp.'s in the 30's per Meteostar on Sunday, 1/15. Very nice for ATL cold rain lovers and at least a tease for ATL severe ZR lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like Michelle and T are going to need to buy a boat with this solution. Wow, I like the looks of that one!! YOu can be sure once Michelle, Kyle, Cheez, and I get well, it is snow time for the whole SE It is always and ever about the southern stream, and gulf systems. It is winter...it will be cold some of it, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 For cold wx and rain lovers, the 12Z gfs fwiw gives some heavy, cold rain love to KATL with a whopping 2.5" of rainfall and temp.'s in the 30's per Meteostar on Sunday, 1/15. Very nice for ATL cold rain lovers and at least a tease for ATL severe ZR lovers. Even up into the Northern Piedmont of NC it looks like an all rain event with temperatures in the 33/34 degree range throughout the event. Maybe starting as a little snow at the onset, but quickly changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like we have two systems: Fri-Sat and Sun-Tues. This is Sun-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Everyone calm down- the latest Op GFS is very likely to be spectacularly wrong. It is a huge outlier from its own ensembles, and is completely different than the CMC, UKMet, Euro and Euro ensembles. I suspect strongly the new Euro will be totally different as well. Looks cold and dry to me after the current rain system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like we have two systems: Fri-Sat and Sun-Tues. This is Sun-Tues. I think someone had said the TwisterData maps had an issue with snow accumulation readings. Down here it's pretty rare in the Midlands of SC so I wouldn't really be happy unless we were getting 3 inches+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Superstorm Blizzard of 1993, which nothing suggests would happen and nobody is suggesting would occur. Really pointless to even talk about that in this thread. Seems to be Wxboard nature to always run across the famous analogs...Mar 93, Jan 85, Jan 00...etc etc...Be nice some day to be able to say: "Looks like Jan 11...." and everyone has a reminiscent sigh... In answer to your question, there is a tendency with the westward drift of the Alaskan ridge that we will have a -PNA pattern in the west which the longer range part of the Euro ensemble means have been showing...this would likely lead to more ridging over the SE were it to verify or at the very least more zonal flow across CONUS ...It would still promote cold air for PNW, plains, GL and creeping possiblybinto New England...we would get fropa from time to time so it would not necessarily torch but it would not be all that favorable for more sustained cold or the frozen variety of precip... It is the challenge that many saw with the pattern change that was expected during mid January...it might not necessarily change into something that would make everyone happy. Obviously with the turmoil in the outlying days in the ensembles, it is still speculative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 For cold wx and rain lovers, the 12Z gfs fwiw gives some heavy, cold rain love to KATL with a whopping 2.5" of rainfall and temp.'s in the 30's per Meteostar on Sunday, 1/15. Very nice for ATL cold rain lovers and at least a tease for ATL severe ZR lovers. That Dr. Larry, is as sure an example of "Ice Cream Brain Freeze" as could be found, lol. I have warned you about potential ICBF, and now....well...... Glad to see you posting about short range stuff. You interest must be piqued! And it is getting into the Jan. wheel house for zrain, right? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Everyone calm down- the latest Op GFS is very likely to be spectacularly wrong. It is a huge outlier from its own ensembles, and is completely different than the CMC, UKMet, Euro and Euro ensembles. I suspect strongly the new Euro will be totally different as well. Looks cold and dry to me after the current rain system. For the record, I was never excited. I also suspect the Euro will look completely different. I don't know what we'd do if there was ANY agreement on the models regarding a potential southeast snow. You know it's bad when we have to go and find a specific ensemble member to show snow in our back yards. Let's get the cold in here first, see where the blocking sets up around Alaska, watch the PV begin moving, and see if we can pop a -NAO at some point before the month is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Everyone calm down- the latest Op GFS is very likely to be spectacularly wrong. It is a huge outlier from its own ensembles, and is completely different than the CMC, UKMet, Euro and Euro ensembles. I suspect strongly the new Euro will be totally different as well. Looks cold and dry to me after the current rain system. Yes....despite the frenzy I do think most realize that....hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Even up into the Northern Piedmont of NC it looks like an all rain event with temperatures in the 33/34 degree range throughout the event. Maybe starting as a little snow at the onset, but quickly changing to rain. I know these things are generally pointless to look at, but it shows kgso getting .4 liquid that falls as snow to begin with before changing over to rain. So a few sloppy wet inches according to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does the gfs show any chance of snow for north ga? No, and it is going to be wrong in any event- here are the GFS ensemble members for that time period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Some interesting stuff going on here. We're close. Can't light a cigar over it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We really need to see three things happen, and without all three occuring we likely won't see much snow/ice (except for a potential and proverbial threading of the needle) 1. Alaskan Block to pop 2. PV begin it's trek south 3. Some type of blocking in the Atlantic/Greenland areas Until then, we will more than likely be facing warmish, wet with intermittent colder but drier weather. We could get lucky, but there is a reason most of the southeast averages single digit snowfall totals annually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 No, and it is going to be wrong in any event- here are the GFS ensemble members for that time period: wow, talk about an outlier. That's almost comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yep...only 1 ensemble member showing anything remotely interesting in that time frame No, and it is going to be wrong in any event- here are the GFS ensemble members for that time period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.