burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @153 too warm. It was exciting until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @144 0 line is running right along the NC/SC border so this will be a close one. In TN 0 line is running along the border to the west. 1032 high sitting up in the NE...not looking bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is going to be a good run, not sure I buy the high pressure extending all the way from Canada to Florida from 120 to 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lots of moisture associated with this though...If we can get the temps right this could be a big winner for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Big SE snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @153 too warm. It was exciting until then. The WAA just overtakes the whole SE and turns it all to rain. boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like Michelle and T are going to need to buy a boat with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The WAA just overtakes the whole SE and turns it all to rain. boo. Yep, really sad as I was getting pretty excited...but one thing is that GFS is typically too fast, maybe we could luck out and get the bulk of this moving in over night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Great run, not sure I buy the high pressure oozing out into the Atlantic like this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yep, really sad as I was getting pretty excited...but one thing is that GFS is typically too fast, maybe we could luck out and get the bulk of this moving in over night? I'm in the cautiously optimistic camp with this one... I'm not excited yet but my interest is piqued. Give me some other global model on board, then lets work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Great run, not sure I buy the high pressure oozing out into the Atlantic like this.... The SFC temps are not too great right at that time frame so probably anything we get wouldn't stick. Verbatim it would at least be something to look at though....I just wish that frz line was further to my south for weenie back yard dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS is bringing an excellent classic case of Southeast/Tenn Valley /Carolina Winter storms , beginning late this week. It may be not deep enough on the first trough Thur-Saturday, the ecm was much deeper and slower/colder. But the 6z GFS also trended this way by not burying the sw low too far out, and shooting up a Pac. NW ridge which helps to send energy down the rockies and captures the sw Baja system. Not sure which way to go with this, but if the GFS is right, then overunning snow and ice would spread quickly across the Red River/North Texas, then east across northern Miss/Ark and into Tn pretty quickly. There is a good cold airmass thats deep on both sides, and gets reinforced thanks to the Alaskan vortex dropping south, which dislodges the cold in Canada. Around 144 hour it begins to develop the sw system too strongly and brings in warmer air aloft in teh Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm in the cautiously optimistic camp with this one... I'm not excited yet but my interest is piqued. Give me some other global model on board, then lets work out the details. That solution reminds of many that the GFS had last year. An elongated strip of heavy QPF across a large swath of the SE...only it never actually worked out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At 174 it looks like western TN is still getting some snow. Hopefully this storm will bring some wintry weather to parts of the SE. We sure need it right about now. I find it hard to believe with a High in a decent spot to our north, 850s rise as much as they do during the storm, but then i have to realize we are in a nina and that se ridge gets pumped up quickly. Either we need that H to be stronger/tad further south. Or we need the storm to be weaker, not make it as far north. Its to damn hard to get a system to roll through the SE that pleases us all, impossible actually. All we can hope for is that some of us down here in the SE win every now and then... we gotta pull for each other haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Agreed. It would definitely be a mind blower to get 6-8" of snow only for rain to wash it away in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Per 12z gfs, would be quite a winter storm from Hickory to Greensboro. I'd guess 4-6" of snow over to a healthy dose of ip/zr. Even though it warms a bit, I doubt surface would get above 32/33. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS might be pulling in too much northern stream energy at 120 which makes it get extremely developed at 144. If the southern stream can avoid becoming too developed, then a good overunning winter event would occur, but too much development and there would be strong warm advection and turn any snow quickly to something else. Overunning can begin quickly though we'll see how the ecmwf and others handle this today. There's a big difference as of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS might be pulling in too much northern stream energy at 120 which makes it get extremely developed at 144. If the southern stream can avoid becoming too developed, then a good overunning winter event would occur, but too much development and there would be strong warm advection and turn any snow quickly to something else. Overunning can begin quickly though we'll see how the ecmwf and others handle this today. There's a big difference as of last night. I'm wondering if GFS is really overdoing the amplification. It basically went from nothing to bombshell in two runs. Being in Birmingham, I of course would prefer the weaker solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Consider it a guarantee this weekend...I am heading to Houston....That way I can say it never happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Trends are the key at this point. GFS obviously moving in the right direction. Also, this isn't out of the blue as it is a time period/storm which MANY models had at one time. Also, will we begin seeing a consensus with other models coming on board? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Its a very wild run, don't read too much into specifics. The big key is that blocking (notable blocking of atleast 100m) for 5 days or longer is a pretty big deal and having 2 blocks is a greater deal. We've had double blocks before, February 1993, and December or January 2000 if I recall. And in similar locations as blocking is preferred in Alaska or Bering Straight and again in Greenland or Scandinavia or UK region. When blocks happen, they alter the flow about everywhere and create unusual events, that can persist. Eg. floods in dry areas, warmth in usually cold areas, cold in warm sunny areas, and snow in places that don't see much. Almost every single major blocking event in the Dec-March time frame I've studied ended up with unusual Southeast Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Been there, Mr. Bob -- it never fails ... On a cautionary note, this maps bears little resemblance to the 0z GFS run. Just like we shouldn't cliff dive with one lousy run, we shouldn't latch on to something like this as if it's gospel. Consider it a guarantee this weekend...I am heading to Houston....That way I can say it never happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Trends are the key at this point. GFS obviously moving in the right direction. Also, this isn't out of the blue as it is a time period/storm which MANY models had at one time. Also, will we begin seeing a consensus with other models coming on board? TW this is a classic example of starting with big picture and working in as time draws near. Blocking first--change the flow---cold air pours south (based on the high lat blocking which usually occurs)--then systems "pop' up when actually they have to based on synoptic meterology. Not saying this is going to be the one yet, the first one may be really hard to forecast since wer'e entering a new pattern, but after this next 5 days it might get a littler easier to do a weekly forecast. Maybe. The run has 2 blocks and rotates them to good positions, and I still firmly believe pieces will line up at some time frame in there for a good weather event in part of the Southeast. The blocking looks a given now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 End of the run GFS pulls in some bone chilling col. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW, Canadian is Dry and Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Consider it a guarantee this weekend...I am heading to Houston....That way I can say it never happened! It's a done deal! Tell your coworker to get her snowboard ready On a good note if the GFS were to verify you might get a good swim in while in Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Still not buying the high sliding east on us for that run...Still, we need the closed low in CA to eject and not hang back like the Euro is showing, or this discussion is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Been there, Mr. Bob -- it never fails ... On a cautionary note, this maps bears little resemblance to the 0z GFS run. Just like we shouldn't cliff dive with one lousy run, we shouldn't latch on to something like this as if it's gospel. No but interesting just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's really not a bad setup. We have all the major players in place - western ridge, and somewhat of a 50/50 low, and a STJ s/w moving across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And in similar locations as blocking is preferred in Alaska or Bering Straight and again in Greenland or Scandinavia or UK region. Improved look to the blocking on the East Atlantic/UK side on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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