DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I find it surprising on how there is a split among a lot of intelligent Met's on whether stratospheric warming is having an impact or not. I obviously have no clue but it's fun to read. I think it's because there isn't a lot of data on how the stratospheric warming effects things, still a lot of research to do there. I find it very interesting though, it will be even MORE interesting to see how this correlates to what actually happens on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 6Z DGEX shows some light snow across the southeast, everyone from northern MS > N. AL > N. GA > Western and Northern NC > NW SC in about 5 days. I thought about posting this note in the Banter thread but hey it's only five days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I know there is no scientific backing to this, but it will be interesting to see if we get some thunderstorms here Wednesday, and then see what the weather does the next 10 days. You know the old wives' tale about thunderstorms in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 6Z DGEX shows some light snow across the southeast, everyone from northern MS > N. AL > N. GA > Western and Northern NC > NW SC in about 5 days. I thought about posting this note in the Banter thread but hey it's only five days away. lol my post got deleted when I said you could take the DGEX solution of giving NC a foot plus snowfall to the bank so I'll digress. One good thing though is that it continues to show something. We need all the consistency we can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol my post got deleted when I said you could take the DGEX solution of giving NC a foot plus snowfall to the bank so I'll digress. One good thing though is that it continues to show something. We need all the consistency we can get! You should have inserted a sarcasm emoticon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does Accu-weather use a real forecasts for their 15-day? By that I mean do they tend to hone in one model or is it a well thought out forecast? I ask this, because typically I will look at their '15-day extended' for local plans, however I love reading this board. Sometimes accu-weather will have a complete (abrupt) change in their 15-day forecast though, so I'm not sure if they are just pulling the GFS (or whatever) and simply going by that or are they taking a truly professional stock of information and making an analysis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does Accu-weather use a real forecasts for their 15-day? By that I mean do they tend to hone in one model or is it a well thought out forecast? I ask this, because typically I will look at their '15-day extended' for local plans, however I love reading this board. Sometimes accu-weather will have a complete (abrupt) change in their 15-day forecast though, so I'm not sure if they are just pulling the GFS (or whatever) and simply going by that or are they taking a truly professional stock of information and making an analysis. Thanks. I'm almost positive their 15-day forecasts are computer generated based on model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does Accu-weather use a real forecasts for their 15-day? By that I mean do they tend to hone in one model or is it a well thought out forecast? I ask this, because typically I will look at their '15-day extended' for local plans, however I love reading this board. Sometimes accu-weather will have a complete (abrupt) change in their 15-day forecast though, so I'm not sure if they are just pulling the GFS (or whatever) and simply going by that or are they taking a truly professional stock of information and making an analysis. Thanks. i think their forecasts are some sort of combination of their accumodel and the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm almost positive their 15-day forecasts are computer generated based on model output. I think it's based on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Weather Channel and AccuWeather both use the GFS from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Mind if I ask a dumb question here folks? There are few actual "dumb" questions, unless from an insane weenie Usually, if they have you under snow at the end of the two weeks, you can feel good that it is from the GFS T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does Accu-weather use a real forecasts for their 15-day? By that I mean do they tend to hone in one model or is it a well thought out forecast? I ask this, because typically I will look at their '15-day extended' for local plans, however I love reading this board. Sometimes accu-weather will have a complete (abrupt) change in their 15-day forecast though, so I'm not sure if they are just pulling the GFS (or whatever) and simply going by that or are they taking a truly professional stock of information and making an analysis. Thanks. All of the private vendors use some type of ensemble set up then massage through statisitcal/climo algorithims to generate a forecast...In the free to the public version, they are probably using nothing but output from the GFS with probably not a lot of human intervention in the outlying days. The first few days probably get quite a bit of attention with a full suite of models. Pretty sophisticated stuff these days...I remember when it was rolled out in the late 90s at TWC...there were more than a few issues with it back then...And I have seen some firms struggle through implementation with this during the 2000s as reflective in the work they would send us. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/wsap/themes/prediction.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I love snow, but I wouldn't mind a good Ice Storm if I can't have snow! Been long time since we've had one. So count me in for anything wintry!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WE just need this upper low to come out before the first trough lifts out with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WE just need this upper low to come out before the first trough lifts out with the cold air. Looks like it's fine just chilling out in Mexico for now. That thing needs to eject east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 WE just need this upper low to come out before the first trough lifts out with the cold air. Still sitting off the baja at 102HR. Looks like some development in western gulf. Just hanging out on the coast. Let's see what the GFS does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Very weak surface reflection in western gulf at 114HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @120 things look interesting. Moisture forming in TX with what looks like could be a low getting it's start to trek east. Let's see if the cold air can stay around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It looks like the 12Z gfs is going to be warmer at 500 mb in the SE US at least early in the 6-10 day period. However, there also looks to be more CAD'ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 One thing I don't like is the big 1028 high right over the SE at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It looks like the 12Z gfs is going to be warmer in the SE US at least early in the 6-10 day period. Yep this run we look to get the moisture but the cold is retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @129 temps are moderate across our area with lots of rain in Texas...on a good note if this were to verify TX would put an impact on the horrible drought they've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @135 our low is cranking up in LA with temps moderate in our area. We just need to keep riding this fine line and hope our cold temps don't retreat too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @138 big slug of moisture heading towards GA and NC 0 line is running North GA up 85 to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @144 snow in the SE! TN and WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @144 0 line is running right along the NC/SC border so this will be a close one. In TN 0 line is running along the border to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Snowing big time through 138HR. Big time snowfall on northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Hello SE! I'm back after a long absence. Hopefully just in time to for the winter to turn it up a notch or two. On accuweather 15 day, I think they are very heavily tied to the GFS. In fact, according to JB it used to be just rip, read, and post on the site. That may have changed over the last couple years, but that is the way it used to be. I rarely look at their site anymore. Too little time and much better info. to be found here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.