packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You're probably right. At hr 174 it's just now gettin to the Tx. border. There is just so much going on with vorts everywhere, fast northern stream, that I don't think any of the models are going to be able to nail this down past 96 hours. I am not even sure what I should be hoping for, except for a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Has a SLP at 192 along gulf coast which should be heading up the App's around 200ish, I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 @198 Euro says there is probably a big rain maker headed for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is just so much going on with vorts everywhere, fast northern stream, that I don't think any of the models are going to be able to nail this down past 96 hours. I am not even sure what I should be hoping for, except for a -NAO. good post. Many times the models are terrible past 96 hours, just depends on the flow. I'd say more times than not thats been the case. What I'd like to see is actual high pressure in Canada or the Plains or Lakes. A 1020 is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There is just so much going on with vorts everywhere, fast northern stream, that I don't think any of the models are going to be able to nail this down past 96 hours. I am not even sure what I should be hoping for, except for a -NAO. Yeah I know what you mean. I really don't believe this is going to turn out to be a snowstorm for our area w/ the lack of cold around but it's just something to track at this point. No longer closed off at 198 but now has a 1008 sfc low bordering the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hmmm...at 204 we've got some colder air coming down into NC...this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There seems to be a trough east of Hawaii, so that would argue this doesn't get stuck in the southwest, but rather kicked east. It's nice when models have the same piece of energy from Nevada to Louisana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 good post. Many times the models are terrible past 96 hours, just depends on the flow. I'd say more times than not thats been the case. What I'd like to see is actual high pressure in Canada or the Plains or Lakes. A 1020 is nothing. well we got a semi block at 204, SLP heading somewhere, but no HP, just another vort over the lakes which probably turns into a miller b of sorts, I would guess for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 @210 looks like WNC is in on some snow mainly I40 N . SFC temps are of course questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i'm sure they'll be some buzz on the sudden appearance of cold 850s in Ala, Ga at 204. This is where teh run really loses it. cold advection ahead of the Upper low and cold front? I think it's having temp issues because of the offshore system...its strangely "unwarm" ahead of the upper low's approach, despite an incoming cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i'm sure they'll be some buzz on the sudden appearance of cold 850s in Ala, Ga at 204. This is where teh run really loses it. cold advection ahead of the Upper low and cold front? I think it's having temp issues because of the offshore system...its strangely "unwarm" ahead of the upper low's approach, despite an incoming cold front. Yea seemed a little weird from 204 - 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 this run is unrealistic on a lot of levels. Belongs in the trash heap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 this run is unrealistic on a lot of levels. Belongs in the trash heap. LOL!!!! Gotta love it Robert! I think it's only going to get worse before it gets better too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 this run is unrealistic on a lot of levels. Belongs in the trash heap. The only thing I like on this run is at 240, there seems to be a 1040 high dropping down from northern Canada with an avalanche of cold heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The only thing I like on this run is at 240, there seems to be a 1040 high dropping down from northern Canada with an avalanche of cold heading this way. yeah, that would be nice. Its day 10 though. The storm in the Northeast and east Canada is impressive. I think this run gave them 2 or 3 snows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf186.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is model mayhem! We need snow desperately! And it's not looking good after 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah, that would be nice. Its day 10 though. The storm in the Northeast and east Canada is impressive. I think this run gave them 2 or 3 snows . Yeah, but that's the best look I've seen yet from the Euro with a developing -NAO pattern. Nice looking -AO set up there with the block over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place. To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf186.html Yep I would be just fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha. I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yeah, but that's the best look I've seen yet from the Euro with a developing -NAO pattern. Nice looking -AO set up there with the block over the pole. Yeah, it looks darn good. With this active pattern and what appears to be cold coming, eventually, we would have to hit something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame. Besides what burger/foothills pointed out there hasn't been any run to run consistency. The Euro is a great model, probably the best and with this crazy active pattern it's not going to be able to nail anything down, although I am hopping it's correct at 240 :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Really can't help but know for a fact that models are going to have the worst time of their life attempting to predict the pattern in the latter period. If it isn't the Euro suddenly cutting a system off way west or the GFS flip flopping with its storms and temperatures, it's something else. At least we still have plenty of time to monitor how things develop over the next few days before we can get an idea of how it all plays out for next week but right now it appears its anything goes with our weather, be it a massive rainstorm, a potential wintry event, etc. Still thinking from mid January and beyond is where things can get really exciting but who knows how the pattern will behave beyond the following week, let alone longer than 10 days and who gets in on the wintry stuff (if anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame. Yea what ends up happening or how it looks anyways is you have 850's way ahead of the cold front and it just sort of sits around at 204 moves just a little east at 210 with the low tracking up the coast (which would argue it should push the 850 temps up?). Then the cold front comes and pushes everything out...if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If we can get a good, sustained 6-8 week cold and stormy pattern, that should be enough to "save" the season, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Sorry, but those maps depict neither a Western U.S. ridge (what ridging is there is waaaaaaaay too far west to do us any good) nor a useful block, as I indicated in my original post. Here it is at 168, notice the trough near the Gulf of Alaska Hour 288 has ridging building in the Pacific. Notice the trough is gone over the Gulf of Alaska At 300 it's even more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yep I would be just fine with that Hey when I click on the 186 hr forecast it does nothing any help on what to do to get this to come up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf186.html What am I doing wrong? I can't get this to come up when I click on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.