strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Being productive or not is only one model run away The pattern change is definetelly starting but the models still don't have answers for how far south and entrenched the cold will go. Always keep in mind that after 7 days out, the GFS is nothing more than a roll of the dice. Hopefully things will begin to get clearer as the week progresses. Have a productive week everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Always keep in mind that after 7 days out, the GFS is nothing more than a roll of the dice. Hogwash, it found the western Alaska riding around 300 hours ago and that still looks legit. Looks like Ecmwf has a southern tracking disturbance, so far i'd prefer to see it a little further south and the cold air pressed further south around next Mon/Tue. There's room for something here with a good eastern Canada vortex and 50/50 confluent flow, with a damming high and overrunning moisture coming into the Tenn Valley. There are other systems in the southern stream after this one, so this is exactly what I was talking about last couple of days regarding the pineapple express. The models are going to waffle on systems so until we get the block formed its going to be tough to make any predictions with staying power. The first system with possible cold air is day 9 or so, then this one comes around day 11 for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is the most frustrating winter i can remember. I attribute the last two winters to my frustration. It seems like things are right around the corner for the better on a daily basis but that's the problem it's always right around the corner. Eventually these corners are going to run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is the most frustrating winter i can remember. I attribute the last two winters to my frustration. It seems like things are right around the corner for the better on a daily basis but that's the problem it's always right around the corner. Eventually these corners are going to run out. I think you'll end up eating those words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Hogwash, it found the western Alaska riding around 300 hours ago and that still looks legit. Looks like Ecmwf has a southern tracking disturbance, so far i'd prefer to see it a little further south and the cold air pressed further south around next Mon/Tue. There's room for something here with a good eastern Canada vortex and 50/50 confluent flow, with a damming high and overrunning moisture coming into the Tenn Valley. There are other systems in the southern stream after this one, so this is exactly what I was talking about last couple of days regarding the pineapple express. The models are going to waffle on systems so until we get the block formed its going to be tough to make any predictions with staying power. The first system with possible cold air is day 9 or so, then this one comes around day 11 for the Southeast. I'll let you and Dr. Ryan Maue work that one out and get back to us. Ryan tweeted last night: @RyanMaue I hope everyone realizes that GFS has no skill after about 7.5 days on average. ...rolls dice... I agree pattern recognition is the key but he was apparently referring to general GFS accuracy after 7.5 days. It is the different viewpoints from all valued mets that helps the understanding of all. That is a very good thing and is sincerely appreciated! Carry on ! Gotta earn a living today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On average might be the key word here not to mention that is a VERY general statement. If that's the case, all we'd ever do is roll the dice. I call BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll let you and Dr. Ryan Maue work that one out and get back to us. Ryan tweeted last night: @RyanMaue I hope everyone realizes that GFS has no skill after about 7.5 days on average. ...rolls dice... I agree pattern recognition is the key but he was apparently referring to general GFS accuracy after 7.5 days. Carry on ! Gotta earn a living today! Just b/c some one makes a quote on how bad the GFS is, doesnt' make it true. You've been on the boards long enough to know its ins and outs. Have no idea who Dr. Maue is, but I won't begrudge anyone on their opinions. You have to know when to use a model, and when not. Everyone knows you can't get 4 daily consistent runs though, but for big ticket items, it's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 exciting on the boards this morning. Well we have many more model runs to go but one thing is for sure is that the end of this week we will see cold air coming back in as it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Just put up my morning discussion and video. Especially take a look at the video....I spend a lit of time discussing the long-range. The Alaska block brings the coldest air in the hemisphere to Canada, but what happens with the cold air? That's the big question. Blog discussion and video Excellent disco Matt and really like the talk of possible CAD set up. That will be something not modeled in the long range usually but mid and short range which will change the playing field majorly! We are definitely over due for CAd event in the south imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think you'll end up eating those words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Hogwash, it found the western Alaska riding around 300 hours ago and that still looks legit. Looks like Ecmwf has a southern tracking disturbance, so far i'd prefer to see it a little further south and the cold air pressed further south around next Mon/Tue. There's room for something here with a good eastern Canada vortex and 50/50 confluent flow, with a damming high and overrunning moisture coming into the Tenn Valley. There are other systems in the southern stream after this one, so this is exactly what I was talking about last couple of days regarding the pineapple express. The models are going to waffle on systems so until we get the block formed its going to be tough to make any predictions with staying power. The first system with possible cold air is day 9 or so, then this one comes around day 11 for the Southeast. The GFS had this general change on the jan 2nd and 3rd on its long range panels. It holds a lot of credibility on the long range for general patterns imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ryan Maue: He used to be with Florida State University with Tropical Cyclone research and is now working with the Naval Research Laboratory. He specializes in large scale flow regimes, predictability, tropical meteorology and numerical weather prediction. He also produces the high quality NAO/AO graphics that some members are posting on our board as well as unique graphic sets on key models. http://policlimate.com/weather/ http://policlimate.c...scillation.html http://policlimate.c...0a_nam_ext.html Anyone using his site should make a Paypal donation to support it. Not trying to make this a Dr. Ryan Maue thread, but I think he was likely referring to things such as the placement of the cold air in the forecasted anomolies. I was simply quoting what Dr. Ryan Maue posted last night. I think he was referring to generally reliability on things such as the specifics on things such as the forecasted GFS anomolies after 7 days. Example: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t850a_nam_ext.html I have been watching this closely over the last few weeks and it has been all over the place (7 days +) as to the placement of the coldest air. All mets bring great value. Ryan has a large global scale outlook where our local pro mets on the board help fine tune things on the board for our local area. The ability to forecast our western NC area with the Mountains, escarpment, foothills down into the piedmont takes great skill. As we all know, as much as a 30 degree variation in temperatures over 25 miles and elevation is a common thing in our area. It is like forecasting for southern Canada and North Carolina all within a 45 mile area. Without question our local mets are some of the best of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS had this general change on the jan 2nd and 3rd on its long range panels. It holds a lot of credibility on the long range for general patterns imo! I think it even had it going back from late December with a run or 2 per day showing or hinting at it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 @RyanMaue I hope everyone realizes that GFS has no skill after about 7.5 days on average. ...rolls dice... What's hilarious is that he had a separate comment in there saying this, "GFS extended range Arctic Oscillation phase goes to negative 5 or 6, drops off chart." You can't have it both ways. Bottom line is that no model is going to be deadly accurate with the small scale features, but they definitely have value when looking at the large scale pattern features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll let you and Dr. Ryan Maue work that one out and get back to us. The funny thing is, BOTH are right. The GFS obviously picked up on this ridging from WAY out, but that doesn't mean it's going to hit a storm from 7+ days out. Right on the ridging (big picture), wrong on the sensible weather that occurs over 7.5 days out. I am excited about the road we are headed down. Even if it doesn't yield snow and/or ice, it's still a refreshing change to be able to follow what might occur with the mother of all ridges expected to form in Alaska and what that might yield downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll take the look of the 6z GFS all day. If it can continue that trend we are in business . You have two potentials for something big on there. Yeah, I counted 4 high pressures moving into MN delivering cold air from rather cold source regions. Verbatim, maybe not as expansive as you'd like to see the cold air reaching south, but a good look nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Don't normally see this strong agreement at Day10 - Euro and Euro Ensemble Mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We desperately need the NAO to go negative as well. The AO is going to go negative. I fear all the cold air is going to be placed out west without the NAO going into a negative state. Hopefully it eventually will, but I just don't see it as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah, I counted 4 high pressures moving into MN delivering cold air from rather cold source regions. Verbatim, maybe not as expansive as you'd like to see the cold air reaching south, but a good look nevertheless. Well we'll see if it was just a blip. One good thing is that the 12z NAM looks to wind the storm up at 84 stronger than the 6z so maybe that can help better set our pattern up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When I hear Cold Air Damming, I hear Fr Rn which is not something we should hope for IMO. While it is a winter feature, it is not something that is good for the roads, trees, power lines etc... that we all depend on. I would rather have 65 and rain than 30 and fr rn but I am sure some enjoy the kind of mess that is created by a zr scenario. To paraphrase a great American "Give me snow or give me... anything but zr" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 6z GFS was a nice setup. Still don't know what happens to the Cali/Baja system at that time frame. Euro brings it out late (but was a close call for ne Tn and NC into Va). If it holds together and gets booted east around day 6 or 7 with cold high to the north then that could be the first real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When I hear Cold Air Damming, I hear Fr Rn which is not something we should hope for IMO. While it is a winter feature, it is not something that is good for the roads, trees, power lines etc... that we all depend on. I would rather have 65 and rain than 30 and fr rn but I am sure some enjoy the kind of mess that is created by a zr scenario. To paraphrase a great American "Give me snow or give me... anything but zr" Cad setup or Cold Air Damming isn't always zr, especially for us in NC. It all depends on how far south the cold air is pushed and how shallow the cold is where you're at. For example, if there is a strong enough high to the north, filtering cold all the way into Georgia, lots of times it'll be snow here in NC and zr in Ga. Of course, that isn't always the case but just wanted to point out that CAD setups aren't always zr for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When I hear Cold Air Damming, I hear Fr Rn which is not something we should hope for IMO. While it is a winter feature, it is not something that is good for the roads, trees, power lines etc... that we all depend on. I would rather have 65 and rain than 30 and fr rn but I am sure some enjoy the kind of mess that is created by a zr scenario. To paraphrase a great American "Give me snow or give me... anything but zr" Keep in mind that the majority of snowstorms in this area will also exhibit cold air damming. Anytime you have strong high pressure over the Great Lakes, and temps at the sfc and aloft that support snow in say, SC upstate, NC foothills & piedmont, you will have a cold air damming signal. I think what happens is that most of the time cold air damming is used to explain why freezing rain / sleet is occurring, but it's not discussed as much with respect to snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Cad setup or Cold Air Damming isn't always zr, especially for us in NC. It all depends on how far south the cold air is pushed and how shallow the cold is where you're at. For example, if there is a strong enough high to the north, filtering cold all the way into Georgia, lots of times it'll be snow here in NC and zr in Ga. Of course, that isn't always the case but just wanted to point out that CAD setups aren't always zr for us. Also, the strength of the SW flow overiding the cold air is a factor as well. During the ice strom that hit in December of 02, the suface temps remained in the 20s, but the warm over riding it was was in the 50 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have a question for any met who wants to take a stab. The models keep placing the closed High/ridge (hope I'm using the right terminology) closer to Siberia than Alaska,, basically it's farther west than what a traditional Alaskan block would be (at least in my amateur opinion.) What does that mean for us down the pipe if the feature ends up being an Aleutian deal or more centralized in Siberia? The models keep suggesting it would mean less cold air for the CONUS/SE. Is this a legitimate concern about the placement or would it not matter very much for us? Thank you i advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I like this 06z GFS has me slightly excited. It depicts a weak surface low with a 1030mb+ HP moving into the plains. And it's only 5 days away. I would not be surprised to see this trend slightly colder. Paints a swath of snow from TX across the south. Light, but certainly an appetizer for what I think could be down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And from the Stratospheric front, we have what I hope will be good news. My thinking as of now is that EP flux vector direction will have less importance than what it usually does. The stratospheric PV will take a major blow, with a 1-2 punch in a very short period of time. Yesterday's Euro analysis shows healthy westerly winds in a good deal of the whole tropo-strato column from 60N-90N, with 20-35 m/s westerly winds in the whole stratosphere from 60-70N. By day 5 and up to day 10, there's no more than 10-15 m/s in pockets, with a good deal of easterly winds. Fig.1 Yesterday's analysis. Notice the dominance of the reds for most of the 60-90N column. Fig 2. By day 5, a strong warming is making it's way down in the upper troposphere. Notice how winds from 60N-90N are <20 m/s in the whole column Fig 3. By day 9, another strong warming is forecasted to make it's debut...it's even more dramatic than the first one. The column now is < 15 m/s... And there's indications of strong ridging in the troposphere (which is also shown in the 0z Euro as the -WPO and Siberian ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I like this So does Tony's house!!! The gfs has been pretty good with my backyard predictions lately. It said I'd see no rain for a good while, and it was the 13 day before I got some. It said it would be scattered and light this weekend, and I got .2 yesterday, while you guys were gorging once more It has been off and on with the intensity of the Ull on Wed. but it has had it a while now, so if I get at least a half inch, I'll take it as verifying. So I won't dismiss this map of yours out of hand, lol. I like suppressed on the models as it means the cold is close.... and the rain can always come north to Tonytown. T When I hear Cold Air Damming, I hear Fr Rn which is not something we should hope for IMO. While it is a winter feature, it is not something that is good for the roads, trees, power lines etc... that we all depend on. I would rather have 65 and rain than 30 and fr rn but I am sure some enjoy the kind of mess that is created by a zr scenario. To paraphrase a great American "Give me snow or give me... anything but zr" Depends on how strong and deep the caa, and how strong the waa over your house. I've seen the gamut under a good cad, but I always hope for sleet T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And from the Stratospheric front, we have what I hope will be good news. I find it surprising on how there is a split among a lot of intelligent Met's on whether stratospheric warming is having an impact or not. I obviously have no clue but it's fun to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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