jburns Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Can someone be so kind as to update me on the thunder/snow farmer tale? is it kind of like if the cows are laying down its going to rain? BTW we had a good thunderstorm here over the lake (Lanier) last night. Top Five Southern Winter Folklore Sayings 1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy. 2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter then average squirrels the next spring. 3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago. 4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black. 5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty. And one I forgot to add: 6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It seems the Euro is our best case scenario for a pattern without a -NAO, it just squashes the SE ridge and gives a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 OK...fair enough...not that I don't believe you are correct...I am just looking at the other side of things...aka...what could go wrong. Just seems like there are a lot of assumptions at this point. I would feel much better if there were a large system that passed through the Midwest/Great Lakes and grabbed that cold air and brought it down with it (GFS Solution) and then set up shop in eastern Canada (50/50 low). Thanks for the response. I am looking forward to seeing this pattern change pan out! Have you seen the ensembles last few days? Or been following them this Season? They change daily, even though they only run out to day 10. Also, its proven in several blocking studies I just finished (and know from 20 + years of forecasting) that ecmwf doesn't handle the pre-block or mature block or decaying block period well, and this blocking will go well beyond its short range. Most likely what happens is when the block cuts off in west or north Canada it stays in that general area and that will leave a weak vortex under it just offshor the Pac NW. South of there will be the other branch of the westerlies, aka split flow. With western Greenland and the Northeast US still under a cold vortex that stretches the flow east to west across the country but what the models wont see are the ejected shortwaves in either the polar flow or stj flow, which will likely amplify. And with the coldest part of the vortex right in the middle of Hudson's Bay region and High Pressure all throughout western and central and northern Canada, the cold will literally stretch thousands of miles south of the polar jet. I've seen that quite a few times, even under warmer than normal heights. Its common in cold airmasses of this -30 to -40 nature. Any system will pull cold air further south and east as the sytem goes by , toward Greenland. Now eventually the block will decay or re-form elsewhere but thats too far out to really speculate. I'm basing my forecast and reasoning on climo and past analogs similar. But you're right if the block heads too far north, then things would change in the flow in a hurry, but so far the GFS and ECMWF don't show that early on, and GFS never really does through the run. I guess its still possible all the cold dumps totally down into the western part of the trough, but with Greenland and the northeast 50/50 vortex that would still argue for significant cold to remain in the east a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Great discussion NCMET, Foothills and Griteater! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Great discussion NCMET, Foothills and Griteater! I completely agree! Dueling meteorologists. Top dollar info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'll go with a 50/50, FoothillsNC, NCMET compromise. It could really go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If you could message me that ECMWF study, I would greatly appreciate it. I would love to read it. Thanks! Have you seen the ensembles last few days? Or been following them this Season? They change daily, even though they only run out to day 10. Also, its proven in several blocking studies I just finished (and know from 20 + years of forecasting) that ecmwf doesn't handle the pre-block or mature block or decaying block period well, and this blocking will go well beyond its short range. Most likely what happens is when the block cuts off in west or north Canada it stays in that general area and that will leave a weak vortex under it just offshor the Pac NW. South of there will be the other branch of the westerlies, aka split flow. With western Greenland and the Northeast US still under a cold vortex that stretches the flow east to west across the country but what the models wont see are the ejected shortwaves in either the polar flow or stj flow, which will likely amplify. And with the coldest part of the vortex right in the middle of Hudson's Bay region and High Pressure all throughout western and central and northern Canada, the cold will literally stretch thousands of miles south of the polar jet. I've seen that quite a few times, even under warmer than normal heights. Its common in cold airmasses of this -30 to -40 nature. Any system will pull cold air further south and east as the sytem goes by , toward Greenland. Now eventually the block will decay or re-form elsewhere but thats too far out to really speculate. I'm basing my forecast and reasoning on climo and past analogs similar. But you're right if the block heads too far north, then things would change in the flow in a hurry, but so far the GFS and ECMWF don't show that early on, and GFS never really does through the run. I guess its still possible all the cold dumps totally down into the western part of the trough, but with Greenland and the northeast 50/50 vortex that would still argue for significant cold to remain in the east a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Wow i have learned a lot this weekend. Great discussions guys. We have some real top class mets on our forum here! Great job everyone. Looks like the end of the week things start looking interesting with the cold finally coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z is continuing the cold and dry for the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z looked a lot like the 12z GFS. Cold air then it moderates and hints at some winter weather only to get too warm and weaken the system. however there is a big fantasy storm at 372. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Someone in NC will be happy with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Stays quite cold throughout the long range. There was a nice coastal low that developed around 312 but timing looked kind of off for the cold air. Btw, did anyone else get frozen at 288 on Allan's site? Worked perfectly up until that frame and then could not go beyond that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18z looked a lot like the 12z GFS. Cold air then it moderates and hints at some winter weather only to get too warm and weaken the system. however there is a big fantasy storm at 372. We'd all like that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We'd all like that one! Yea it just needs to be 3 days away instead of 15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 12 hr. Snow total for the fantasy system. Nothing massive but would be a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Snow total for the fantasy system. Nothing massive but would be a decent hit. Can't remember but that far out does it extrapolate for the between panels? There was a big chunk of moisture with that. Haha of course picking it apart that far out is useless I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Can't remember but that far out does it extrapolate for the between panels? There was a big chunk of moisture with that. Haha of course picking it apart that far out is useless I know. Changed it to the 12 hr. for the sake of showing the true bullseye out of that system. On the other image I had, there were two areas with the other off toward the western section of VA but that was snow depth though. That one did take into account all of the moisture involved and thus showed areas in north GA and portions of SC getting some accumulation, though small. EDIT: On second thought, I'll just post it too while I'm at it, just to be fair lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just for the heck of it here is the precip type at 372 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 OK...fair enough...not that I don't believe you are correct...I am just looking at the other side of things...aka...what could go wrong. Just seems like there are a lot of assumptions at this point. I would feel much better if there were a large system that passed through the Midwest/Great Lakes and grabbed that cold air and brought it down with it (GFS Solution) and then set up shop in eastern Canada (50/50 low). Thanks for the response. I am looking forward to seeing this pattern change pan out! I'm not certain yet of anything either, and should think it wise to leave all doors open to anything yet but I'm leaning eventually cold down in the bulk of the US and a southern storm track. But in weather, no guarantees . I completely agree! Dueling meteorologists. Top dollar info. just exchanging ideas. It's not really a top dog thing, every forecaster has their preferred methods, and rely on what they think they should. Some use models heavily and some use a blend and other things. It's always a learning process which is just good for folks down the line to learn from the past. Which is why I love to read on all types of patterns and ideas. The whole stratospheric warming thing is new to me, we didn't have that in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Here's a good study but its pretty old. http://www.gi.alaska.edu/~bhatt/Teaching/ATM693.Climate.JC/spring_10/carrera_etal_blocking.pdf And another one that's very in depth and an interesting read. http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/mischac/publications/thesis_mcm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 just exchanging ideas. It's not really a top dog thing, every forecaster has their preferred methods, and rely on what they think they should. Some use models heavily and some use a blend and other things. It's always a learning process which is just good for folks down the line to learn from the past. Which is why I love to read on all types of patterns and ideas. The whole stratospheric warming thing is new to me, we didn't have that in college. Dude! The Super Bowl is coming up! You should have seen that one coming a mile away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'll go with a 50/50, FoothillsNC, NCMET compromise. It could really go either way. I was thinking the same thing. I need a little bit of both scenario's to produce snow imby. Everything has to come together just right for this area, and more often than not I'm usually on the outside of that snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'm not certain yet of anything either, and should think it wise to leave all doors open to anything yet but I'm leaning eventually cold down in the bulk of the US and a southern storm track. But in weather, no guarantees . just exchanging ideas. It's not really a top dog thing, every forecaster has their preferred methods, and rely on what they think they should. Some use models heavily and some use a blend and other things. It's always a learning process which is just good for folks down the line to learn from the past. Which is why I love to read on all types of patterns and ideas. The whole stratospheric warming thing is new to me, we didn't have that in college. Again great discussion! I think everyone here brings something to the table. Real neat in getting everyone's point of views on here and wow a tone of info being learned. Also this weekend looks like it is going to be cold from the gulf to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There has been a lot of great discussions about the possibilities of the upcoming pattern. Some are excited and some not near as excited. I just read a good article from DT that was posted to his facebook. He seems to be on the excited side about the possibilities. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/historic-pattern-flip-coming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Interesting that several members of the 18z GFS have s SLP off the NC coast next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Interesting that several members of the 18z GFS have s SLP off the NC coast next weekend. Was just reviewing the same time frame..was actually about to post lol but you are right, nearly every member shows precip over a good portion of Nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Are you out of country...if so you know I'll be looking for a major winter storm in the SE. LOL. I've pretty much, over the past few weeks, stated my opinion about the upcoming pattern. I don't look at raw temp output, just the pattern. With the coldest air at the pole sliding to this hemisphere, odds are in favor of an Arctic outbreak for the continental US w/ high latitude blocking in place. The 12GFS is flat out cold here in NE TN w/ the pattern it is showing. The pattern from the past 6 weeks is going to completely relax or leave during the 1-3 week time frame at least. It may return w/ La Nina in place though the ENSO state may trend towards neutral. Definitely not the same pattern on the 12z runs. If you don't see it, I probably won't convince you. Now, I'm not saying above normal snow/ice - yet. Until the new pattern "stabilizes" the details of each piece of energy will have great variability w/each run. I do think the winter will be above normal w/ temps and below for snow @ KTRI. I don't think we will erase +5 F from December. La Ninas can have great temp swings as you know and this will be one of them IMO. Yes, I will be missing this entire Winter this year. I actually made a post in early December where I guaranteed NC to have a blockbuster season because of this. The last season where I was out of the country was 86-87 and we know how well things turned out that Winter. But I can't help having doubts about this year. If you go back to the locked thread you see the same type of comments, same expectations, and even some of the model output looks similar to what we are seeing now. Just after Christmas everyone was getting excited about the prospects for a Winter event for the 5-7th time frame and a pattern change to follow. Today everything is still a week to 10 days away. Even though I am not there I still want to see snow back home so I want to see a turn around as much as anyone. Hopefully things will turn around in the next couple of weeks, I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aanance Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Was just reviewing the same time frame..was actually about to post lol but you are right, nearly every member shows precip over a good portion of Nc But how well will the cold air be set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yes, I will be missing this entire Winter this year. I actually made a post in early December where I guaranteed NC to have a blockbuster season because of this. The last season where I was out of the country was 86-87 and we know how well things turned out that Winter. But I can't help having doubts about this year. If you go back to the locked thread you see the same type of comments, same expectations, and even some of the model output looks similar to what we are seeing now. Just after Christmas everyone was getting excited about the prospects for a Winter event for the 5-7th time frame and a pattern change to follow. Today everything is still a week to 10 days away. Even though I am not there I still want to see snow back home so I want to see a turn around as much as anyone. Hopefully things will turn around in the next couple of weeks, I guess time will tell. I actually remember you posting that oddly enough. Well, it's great that you are keeping up w/ things from a distance. Hopefully, next winter will require less patience - this one is testing my patience for sure. Stay cool! Should I say, "Good morning or good afternoon?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Interesting that several members of the 18z GFS have s SLP off the NC coast next weekend. Agreed, since OP didn't have it...I count 5 of 11 members that look interesting, the others do not. There are also a few that go with the OP, no low. IMO that discredits the ones that show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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