FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I feel like we have been watching this particular storm for what feels like FOREVER. true. But all the cutoffs are becoming merged in my mind. I feel like its been a month waiting on the western Alaska block. Wait, it almost has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice outbreak on this run for the Plains. For example MEM goes from +2 at 90 hour to -10 just 12 hours later. Theres -24 in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nice push of the incoming colder air at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hour 144 clipper type system in Mo/Ark but it looks moisture starved. Just reinforces the cold in eastern Plains as the ridging in Pac. NW develops. Also the southern stream "Pineapple" express looks to be developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Shows an area of light snow (plenty cold) in Mo. bootheel, western half of Tn, northern Al. at 150. Thats the clipper type system that digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think we're about to see the PV drop south and a Greenland ridge pop on the Euro 168 hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The clipper drops light snow further east, across Tn, n. Ga, western central Carolinas on the next panel. Its actually impressive for so far south. 850 temps are -6 to -8 in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Would the low pressure around Memphis at 144 bring some snow showers? Looks almost like a clipper.... Pretty moist at h7 Edit: didn't read the new posts first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Does it still have the cutoff in tx next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The southwest system opens up and crosses the Baja and heading toward west Texas at 168. Can the east remain cold though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The southwest system opens up and crosses the Baja and heading toward west Texas at 168. Can the east remain cold though? 0 line up over MN by then, so the answer would be no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The reinforcing shot of cold at the Lakes and northeast on the GFS isn't as strong on the ecmwf so I don't know how the East, esp down toward NC can be cold enough when the southwest system arrives. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 0 line up over MN by then, so the answer would be no and the HP is sliding off the GA coast. We'd need that other shot of cold to get in via the Lakes wave like GFS was showing, but this run doesn't have that. They both have the timing about the same though, as for the approach of the Texas wave. It doesn't look all that strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It would help some to finally have some kind of snowpack to help keep some cold in and not allow the cold to modify as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 HP really building over W Canada. 1050+ over AK by 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yikes if that moisture was faster we might have a big ice storm at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I was wrong about the NAO... still fiercely positive throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yep at 204 looks to all go warm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 @216 cold air is coming back down the pipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hmmmm at 240 things could get fun cold air coming down with moisture to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Some of you just need to step away from the computer. You sit here and live or die by every model run. Folks, relax, the cold and storms will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hmmmm at 240 things could get fun cold air coming down with moisture to work with At some point, and soon, we are going to have to get something other than 240 to start looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 @216 cold air is coming back down the pipe Looks like we start feeling the pattern change at that time, then the cold starts to sag, you would think we would be in a good spot for an overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 will be interesting to see the ensembles today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 At some point, and soon, we are going to have to get something other than 240 to start looking good. I agree but so long as its hinting at something it's better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Any chance the EURO is showing some of its bias in moving the cold out past Day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like we start feeling the pattern change at that time, then the cold starts to sag, you would think we would be in a good spot for an overrunning event. It's there just not until 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think the big picture is key long term. The models are consistently showing the intrusion of colder air in the East. The details will get ironed out as we get closer to precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Its all good! Game on! I've seen the 10 day thunder rule pan out before....and we got some thunder a little while ago....we also have a special wx statement out....Like the way things are looking....We have been waiting a long while..Like Burger said....at least we have something to track...Anybody wanna guess at when the models get a lock on the impending blocks?? Wed?? Friday?? Sunday?? That's when things are really gonna get fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just read a blocking study by Carrera that stated ecmwf wasn't as good in blocking episodes, so take that fwiw. They specifically mentioned the Bering Strait/Alaskan blocking episodes. Either way, both models have a pretty good southern stream developing and cold pressing south. And both have double blocking, the other being at Scandinavia, which is a preferred site and very climo when it happens in Nina Winters. The rest of the run shows impressive double blocking. Extremely impressive. Here's day 9 , notice the 576dm ridge near Uk/Scandinavia, and its counterpart north of Alaska. This run brings the colder further south by day 9 and much further south on day 10 than yesterday's run. So the models are seeing what usually happens when you get high Lat blocking---->>>cold air seeps or screams south, depends on the flow, and the heart land of the north american continent is ground zero for the coldest air. Not only that, a generally sinking storm track emerges from the Pacific. It's only a matter of time before models hone in on the individual s/w that will produce the overrunning ice and snow across the lower Plains and Southeast in this pattern, but eventually they likely will. Just pure pattern recognition and climo here, snow shovels and ice scrapers will be handy devices in the Mid-South's future , not too far from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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