Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Should be interesting to see just how long gfs keeps this cold around it's still there at 159 Staying plenty cold enough in North Carolina through 174... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 @177 the cold moderates a bit allowing a less suppressed flow but who knows what will happen after that...gfs keeps everyone pretty dry up until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Extreme confluence in teh Northeast at 180 with a strong cyclone and deep 5H vortex, loaded with bitter cold arctic air. the southern plains are mild so the cold is reinforced in the East esp. from NC northward. The high over the Lake is 1040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully the pattern can change so the models can quit being so bi-polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We're now in teh time when GFS loses credibility with s/w and usually truncates. Its a Winter storm setup though from 180 onward for the Apps , possibly Tn. Valley and Carolinas esp. Depends on when the southern stream gets ejected. The blocked up atmosphere, still developing usually slows the northern stream down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Extreme confluence in teh Northeast at 180 with a strong cyclone and deep 5H vortex, loaded with bitter cold arctic air. the southern plains are mild so the cold is reinforced in the East esp. from NC northward. The high over the Lake is 1040. No doubt...infact at 192, you couldn't ask for a better cold air source. If we could just get some action to slide under it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Plenty of potential on the 12z run today. The pattern is there and the cold is there. Tough to ask for much more at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 After a major storm after 200 hours, the GFS rolls the block to the north Pole and then grows a Greenland block and they get close to merging. It's typical for models to not handle the effects of blocking , until its well formed. Bottom line is that chances are good for some Wintry weather (snow/ice) in some areas that don't usually get much at some point starting around 180 hours and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The blocks (3 of them) are located in high latitudes by 384 hours. This is good news for putting cold air at far south locations and with active precip patterns in some places. Can't exactly name where yet though, but this bodes well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We also keep the lowest heights and coldest air in North America for a while(next 2 to 3 weeks) so any amplified pattern will have easy access to severe cold. really can't ask for more of potential. Specifics aren't important yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like heavy rain and storms next week. Will snow follow a week after??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like heavy rain and storms next week. Will snow follow a week after??! If it thunders it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like heavy rain and storms next week. Will snow follow a week after??! Nah, cold and dry. That's how it works here in the good old southeast. haha. This is mostly in jest. I think the pattern is headed down a nice path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Promise me that, at some point, specifics WILL be important? The blocks (3 of them) are located in high latitudes by 384 hours. This is good news for putting cold air at far south locations and with active precip patterns in some places. Can't exactly name where yet though, but this bodes well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Promise me that, at some point, specifics WILL be important? they will be, but not yet. Usually, blocking anywhere around 180 or 0 longitude does us well. We're more use to the Greenland version though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like heavy rain and storms next week. Will snow follow a week after??! NW flow behind the departing low may spark some snow showers near the TN line after the low departs the region early Thur. We had thunder on the 22nd and sure enough 10 days later on the 2nd - 3rd we had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The blocks (3 of them) are located in high latitudes by 384 hours. This is good news for putting cold air at far south locations and with active precip patterns in some places. Can't exactly name where yet though, but this bodes well I think. Wouldn't it be great to get those blocks aligned like they where in that great March 1960ish pattern. I'd give anything to expierence that type of pattern over a 3-4 week period, except have it in mid Jan-mid Feb. Off the top of your head how diffrent is the position of the blocks being shown today v/s what actually occured back then. I know the models paint them at slightly different set points each run, but are they in the neighborhood so to speak? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 There is Mr. Doubter How is being realistic being a DOUBTER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 How is being realistic being a DOUBTER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Plenty of potential on the 12z run today. The pattern is there and the cold is there. Tough to ask for much more at this stage. I'm just not seeing it. Take Greensboro for example. This run of the GFS has only 7 of the next 16 days with below normal temperatures. Only two of those days, next Friday and Saturday, are well below normal, with the highs projected to be around 38 both days. The other five days are only a couple of degrees below normal (Mid 40's). The coldest temperature projected during the entire period is one morning when the model projects a low of 20. This is normally the coldest period of the season we are entering into, and these numbers are just not very impressive for the middle of January. It just looks like the cycle we have been in this entire season looks to continue. The synopsis may not be the same, but the end results are. I know this has been said before, but this is one of those years where the Southeast will have to rely on perfect timing which rarely works out. I'm sure that at some point everything will come together to bring a decent event to some in the Southeast, but overall I'm thinking this Winter season is going to go in the books as a disappointment to most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think this model was on drugs. Nothing else shows this between 84-192 hours really. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think this model was on drugs. Nothing else shows this between 84-192 hours really. Haha It's the extended NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's the extended NAM. Exactly. Don't think the thing's more than 5% right when it comes to Wintry weather in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Wouldn't it be great to get those blocks aligned like they where in that great March 1960ish pattern. I'd give anything to expierence that type of pattern over a 3-4 week period, except have it in mid Jan-mid Feb. Off the top of your head how diffrent is the position of the blocks being shown today v/s what actually occured back then. I know the models paint them at slightly different set points each run, but are they in the neighborhood so to speak? Thanks That period had a double block at times too, but the difference was that we had one in southern Greenland. This one doesn't feature that. But late in the run did have some ridging over Greenland, but we can't trust the model just on one run of it showing that. Keep it up and then it gains more believablilty, just like when GFS started showing blocking in Alaska about 2 to 2 and half weeks ago, and never really lost it. Personally, I'd love to see somethng similar to that pattern again, but we may have to wait a lifetime, who knows. It was definitely the all time, pentiultimate winter weather pattern in the Southeast and esp. the Apps and Carolinas since records have been kept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 @RyanMaue: GFS extended range Arctic Oscillation phase goes to negative 5 or 6, drops off chart. http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'm just not seeing it. Take Greensboro for example. This run of the GFS has only 7 of the next 16 days with below normal temperatures. Only two of those days, next Friday and Saturday, are well below normal, with the highs projected to be around 38 both days. The other five days are only a couple of degrees below normal (Mid 40's). The coldest temperature projected during the entire period is one morning when the model projects a low of 20. This is normally the coldest period of the season we are entering into, and these numbers are just not very impressive for the middle of January. It just looks like the cycle we have been in this entire season looks to continue. The synopsis may not be the same, but the end results are. I know this has been said before, but this is one of those years where the Southeast will have to rely on perfect timing which rarely works out. I'm sure that at some point everything will come together to bring a decent event to some in the Southeast, but overall I'm thinking this Winter season is going to go in the books as a disappointment to most. I think what is being said with his statement is more in pattern recognition than in actual model output with individual storms. If you look at it that way, the pattern could become ripe in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The ecmwf has this Tex. storm as being a great rainmaker from Texas across most of the South. Plenty of spots are 1.25" to 1.50" and some 1.75" through 84 hours. Hopefully areas that have been dry in Ga and SC can benefit from this one. Its fairly slow moving and has a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The ecmwf has this Tex. storm as being a great rainmaker from Texas across most of the South. Plenty of spots are 1.25" to 1.50" and some 1.75" through 84 hours. Hopefully areas that have been dry in Ga and SC can benefit from this one. Its fairly slow moving and has a good track. I feel like we have been watching this particular storm for what feels like FOREVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yea. what a shot we'd have then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The ecmwf has this Tex. storm as being a great rainmaker from Texas across most of the South. Plenty of spots are 1.25" to 1.50" and some 1.75" through 84 hours. Hopefully areas that have been dry in Ga and SC can benefit from this one. Its fairly slow moving and has a good track. Would be nice to track one of these with a widespread arctic airmass draped across the southeast. Could potentially happen at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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