POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Coastal NC seems to be the winner this run.... snow showers in WNC also it will go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nope - Fla snow this time (Yuk, yuk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 it will go west trend of positive tilt troughs and progressive flow the past couple setups argues against that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Western ridging holds on a lot in this run. The blocking works north of Alaska toward the North Pole. That keeps the cold pointed our way, but doesn't get overly cold perse. The trend is what matters and western ridging is a good sign, esp. considering how often s/w break up in the southwest and the tendency of s/w to amplify. I think someone in the East or Midsouth or Southeast will end up with a snowstorm during this frame at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Regarding the wave that the GFS brings east out of S California and into Texas at 120, the UKMet has it closed off south of Arizona. It brings the wave into W TX at 144, but the flow across the SE is pretty flat by then. Tall ridge going up west of Alaska at 144 on the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like a miller a on the cmc at 132-144. Hard to tell what's what till its on Ewall. Also it looks to have a cutoff in the southwest at the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Looks like a miller a on the cmc at 132-144. Hard to tell what's what till its on Ewall. Also it looks to have a cutoff in the southwest at the same timeframe. Friday night it does look good for northern Miss, Ark and Tenn. The 144 isn't in yet, but the southwest system is pretty far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Canadian on the Canuck site looks mighty cold with a couple waves of snow for ark and west/middle Tennessee. After 144 looks like it could be another wave forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 GFS has the ridge NW of Alaska connecting with a Scandinavian ridge, which drops a polar vortex south and then southeast to a position southeast of Hudson Bay....that's a dream setup for getting cold air down into the SE. It's one scenario of how this could play out at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 the pattern coming up could be a major boon for the South and esp. the Southeast. High latitude blocking usually does wonders in the Southeast as far as getting both precip and cold, but lots of times we still aren't quite cold enough. This may be the time (great timing -- January) for a big event or 2. The GFS is hinting very early on for the Southeast, not so much in the Northeast, that our heights are low and the orientation argues for increased precip chances + colder than normal. That continues on through the run, but obviously these runs change daily, the point is they keep on with the north Pole blocking, which is an extreme rarity. I'm not sure I'm sold on it yet, but its hard to ignore it and ecmwf that almost joined the 2 major ridges at the poles. What that would do if it occured is cause a very supressed storm track with baggy troughs and possible cutoffs, and this time we have cold air to work with. It's pretty exciting, I haven't seen this pattern in I can't remember when. We're used to Greenland blocking, which is good for the east in general, but not so much Polar -Alaskan-Scandinavian blocking. Here's some images. In the final frame at 384, maybe useless I know, but to have high heights over the west coast, Greenland and the Pole can only spell one thing for the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ya i no it is very long rang but i did notice just massive amounts up cold just to our north. Negative 40 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 at 144, the cutoff west of srn Cali is approaching west Texas. Very cold in the eastern half of the country and the Ak. vortex has dropped south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 at 168, there is a new s/w in teh northern plains and the sw system is west of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 at 144, the cutoff west of srn Cali is approaching west Texas. Very cold in the eastern half of the country and the Ak. vortex has dropped south. I'm out to 168 and the cutoff is still at the Mex./Tx. border. It's taking it's sweet time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Things are not that far off from a tremendous setup at 180. 1032mb high in ND/MN with a Low in southern Texas near Brownsville. It appears the northern stream will dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Plains or Midwest wave barely misses the Texas system in this run. Its something to watch. Back things up just a little and it would be quite a storm developing in the Gulf. But the cold northern stream dominates.Meanwhile major western Alaska ridging and more cold coming down from nw to Se, with a 1054 high in northwest Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Plains or Midwest wave barely misses the Texas system in this run. Its something to watch. Back things up just a little and it would be quite a storm developing in the Gulf. But the cold northern stream dominates.Meanwhile major western Alaska ridging and more cold coming down from nw to Se, with a 1054 high in northwest Canada. I know we have been getting some good Gulf Low's the past 2 winters but we are due for one that really tries bombs out in the Gulf. Given the amplified pattern, this may be the year for something special coming out of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I know we have been getting some good Gulf Low's the past 2 winters but we are due for one that really tries bombs out in the Gulf. Given the amplified pattern, this may be the year for something special coming out of the GOM. Its all about timing of the features, if it comes out at just the right time, they would phase or join forces in the lower Miss. Valley, possibly the Gulf Coast. Thats a long shot though, but its possible since they're so close and plenty of models have something around this time frame. Given that its within 6 to 7 days now its certainly a lot more possible than anything else we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 looks like this run of ecm developed the European ridge more toward Iceland/eastern Greenland than other runs. Directly across is still the big western Alaska ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 this run doesn't dump the cold south yet, theres a east pac trough and east coast trough with ridging in the middle, esp. Rockies to southern Plains. At 140, Hudson Bay has -36 at 850 which is almost off the scale of SV charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Foothills? Is there a legititament chance of the south east seeing snow from on of these lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Foothills? Is there a legititament chance of the south east seeing snow from on of these lows? I'd say watch Friday through Sunday period. Either the southwest low gets ejected east or a new s/w dives in , or both could get sheared to south with no development. There is a chance though, about all you can say right now. Pattern changes are notoriously hard for models to get right, atleast they're keeping 2 major ridges, but the details between them are hard to know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I've seen this show before. No way that trough remains that flat/positive.. This baby is coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I've seen this show before. No way that trough remains that flat/positive.. This baby is coming back Very possible. All models have the Alaskan vortex getting booted, the question is how much shortwave ridging develops over the pacific northwest when that happens, which determines how much the northern rockies/Plains wave can dive, which determines whether or not it picks up the Texas wave. And where that wave is at the time is still a guess. If all the pieces of the puzzle snap together perfectly, a bomb would go off in the western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'd say watch Friday through Sunday period. Either the southwest low gets ejected east or a new s/w dives in , or both could get sheared to south with no development. There is a chance though, about all you can say right now. Pattern changes are notoriously hard for models to get right, atleast they're keeping 2 major ridges, but the details between them are hard to know right now. Just wish they'd be shown wrapping up in the near term, instead of getting weaker Todays showers are verifying for mby, in that they are missing as the gfs has suggested for a number of days now, lol. I'm hoping for great things Mon on, but I'm not holding my breath for the big rain storm that was showing a few days back, by this evenings look. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I know we have been getting some good Gulf Low's the past 2 winters but we are due for one that really tries bombs out in the Gulf. Given the amplified pattern, this may be the year for something special coming out of the GOM. You don't really want a low to bomb out when it's in the gulf unless you're in the mid south like tenn.. I'm not sure I've ever seen one "bomb" out that low in latitude anyway. Not to mention that qpf that is lost from those blasted thunder boomers. I wanna see her bomb off Hat at about 956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think we should invade Canada and steal their cold air, they don't want to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 finally things are looking interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I liked the run of the euro last night. To me it said it was entertaining the solution the GFS has with the storm this weekend. My guess is we get very excited over the 12z run of the euro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 DT posted an in depth article about what he thinks will be a historic pattern flip. It's a little over my head but looks like a good read. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/historic-pattern-flip-coming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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