Tacoma Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just saw Frank Strait on Accuweather and he says things look very interesting for next weekend around the southeast. Euro saying very cold will be in place and GFS has a pretty good storm coming up out of the gulf. He said things look very interesting for next weekend that the Euro is already showing snow on the nw fringe of the storm E. Tenn, WNC, well its something to track and watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 For those that did not see the operational 18Z GFS run, at hour 168 (valid 1 PM Saturday) a miller A low pressure spun up in the GOM made a run off the SE coast. There was a marginal amount of cold air available to western NC via a weak CAD as the 0 C 850 line was running right along the Appalachians. So, this is definitely something worth watching for folks in the far western Piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Just saw Frank Strait on Accuweather and he says things look very interesting for next weekend around the southeast. Euro saying very cold will be in place and GFS has a pretty good storm coming up out of the gulf. He said things look very interesting for next weekend that the Euro is already showing snow on the nw fringe of the storm E. Tenn, WNC, well its something to track and watch anyway. The Euro ensembles from 0z and 12 z today stayed consistent. If you go back and look at the euro operational from 0z last night to 12z today it has trended toward the ensembles just by looking at the 850mb slp and temp maps. I bet you find the operational run of the euro tonight showing a pretty good shot of cold coming in Thursday and remaining the rest of the 10 day run. I always try to compare the globals against their ensembles, not each other to see if/ which model has A) sniffed out a pattern change & work from that point in trying to calculate what could/should transpire down the road. The Euro and GFS are worlds apart from this coming Thursday on. Question is from my perspective/ arm chair quaterbacking is which model has the better grasp day 4-7? If history tells us anything the euro has always trumped the GFS in the day 4-7 timeframe during the winter seasons. If the Euro continues the trend over the next few runs of falling in sink with it's ensembles, then my money is on it. Remember the fantasy storm the Euro had 2 runs in a row for the SE a few weeks ago, then lost it. While the GFS never showed it. Some of us where quick to ditch/dethrone the king Euro. However during those 2 back to back model runs it was the Euro all by itself that locked on to the PNA going positive, thus causing a trough to carve out and provide a sw the oppurtunity to dig down and pop. Turns out all of this worked out with the exception of the sw working it's magic. Meanwhile the GFS kept on advertising west-east zonal flow from southeast Asia halfway around the world to the Atlantic. This is getting into the Euro wheelhouse. I will be very suprised if it isn't currently on it's A GAME discerning the pattern change that is going to take place up over our pole a week from now. Gonna be fun to see if it can trump the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 NCSNOW - Nice write up. What concerns me is what the Euro shows two frames later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But then this - so who knows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But then this - so who knows: First SE Winter storm would be around 48 hrs or so after that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 0z GFS through 96 hours...I think the northern stream energy is not splitting off as much as the 12z...a good sign that the cold may be returning on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yup, Cold Rain. Just so much model temp wavering north and west of us over such a short time-frame, I voiced a concern. Not sure any model has a grip right now and I think this part of this run sorta illustrates that. Is going to be fun to watch .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We still seem to have that second system developing with the cold shot out west around 114. Let's see how the 0z handles this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Cold dropping due south...towards Texas at 120. Not much penetration to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Euro ensembles from 0z and 12 z today stayed consistent. If you go back and look at the euro operational from 0z last night to 12z today it has trended toward the ensembles just by looking at the 850mb slp and temp maps. I bet you find the operational run of the euro tonight showing a pretty good shot of cold coming in Thursday and remaining the rest of the 10 day run. I always try to compare the globals against their ensembles, not each other to see if/ which model has A) sniffed out a pattern change & work from that point in trying to calculate what could/should transpire down the road. The Euro and GFS are worlds apart from this coming Thursday on. Question is from my perspective/ arm chair quaterbacking is which model has the better grasp day 4-7? If history tells us anything the euro has always trumped the GFS in the day 4-7 timeframe during the winter seasons. If the Euro continues the trend over the next few runs of falling in sink with it's ensembles, then my money is on it. Remember the fantasy storm the Euro had 2 runs in a row for the SE a few weeks ago, then lost it. While the GFS never showed it. Some of us where quick to ditch/dethrone the king Euro. However during those 2 back to back model runs it was the Euro all by itself that locked on to the PNA going positive, thus causing a trough to carve out and provide a sw the oppurtunity to dig down and pop. Turns out all of this worked out with the exception of the sw working it's magic. Meanwhile the GFS kept on advertising west-east zonal flow from southeast Asia halfway around the world to the Atlantic. This is getting into the Euro wheelhouse. I will be very suprised if it isn't currently on it's A GAME discerning the pattern change that is going to take place up over our pole a week from now. Gonna be fun to see if it can trump the GFS again. The Euro seems a little more in line w/ the cold pattern. It has taken its time getting there. The GFS began to latch on to the this pattern just before New Year's, sometime around Dec. 30 if not before. It is showing reasonable patterns even now(some warm and some cold), though it appears it is having difficulty w/ the just how cold it will get and where - location of the artic boundary. It is good to see the Euro Op and its ensembles finally coming around. If the flip to cold happens, I feel comfortable in saying that the Euro has been almost blind to pattern flips until well within ten days. The Euro weeklies are still pronouncing a warm pattern for the East. Additionally, if the GFS begins to back-off the cold I will grow more concerned that the cold may not happen or its impact will be blunted. It has had its moments this winter as well w/ predicting cold that never happened in the long range. However, if the cold moves East during mid-month it should be the GFS that receives the credit for predicting its arrival two weeks ahead of time. But yes, when the Euro gets something w/in 5-7 days it is usually money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Yup, Cold Rain. Just so much model temp wavering north and west of us over such a short time-frame, I voiced a concern. Not sure any model has a grip right now and I think this part of this run sorta illustrates that. Is going to be fun to watch .... Yeah that's right. All the uncertainty keeps it interesting...that's for sure! If we can get a 1040+ high dropping into the midwest, then as active as the flow has been, I think we'd stand a decent chance of some fun. But a 1040+ high is still 10 days away, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 If history tells us anything the euro has always trumped the GFS in the day 4-7 timeframe during the winter seasons. If the Euro continues the trend over the next few runs of falling in sink with it's ensembles, then my money is on it. Remember the fantasy storm the Euro had 2 runs in a row for the SE a few weeks ago, then lost it. While the GFS never showed it. Some of us where quick to ditch/dethrone the king Euro. However during those 2 back to back model runs it was the Euro all by itself that locked on to the PNA going positive, thus causing a trough to carve out and provide a sw the oppurtunity to dig down and pop. Turns out all of this worked out with the exception of the sw working it's magic. Meanwhile the GFS kept on advertising west-east zonal flow from southeast Asia halfway around the world to the Atlantic. This is getting into the Euro wheelhouse. I will be very suprised if it isn't currently on it's A GAME discerning the pattern change that is going to take place up over our pole a week from now. Gonna be fun to see if it can trump the GFS again. I'm afraid this is just urban legend now. The Euro doesn't do well esp. in NC on the temps. This last cold wave on Mon-Tues you can go back and see the thread that showed its surface temps, GFS was deadly accurate in NC again. This makes 3 straight years now that GFS beat ECMWF on surface temps in every single cold wave in NC atleast. Even though in most of the past Winters the ecmwf has been better overall with storm tracks, it also misses a lot, and generates a lot of false alarms. I think folks just remember all the huge misses the GFS has in supressed flow that GFS has trouble with (remember the Cuba storm Feb 2010?). Ever since just after last Christmas storm, more times than not the GFS has outperformed Ecmwf atleast in the Southeast. And that esp. goes for NC specifically. GFS nailed MCS events to nearly the hour from 5 days out numerous times here last Spring and Summer, many many times and ecmwf only hinted at it or showed nothing. The ecmwf has shown plenty of winter events the last couple of years that GFS never joined, and turned out to be right. So even though both models have patterns where one will be better than the other in a certain pattern, GFS has come a very long way from years ago when it was too cold and too supressed many times. And as for this upcoming Alaskan block, the GFS showed it beginning on its 384 hour panels 2 weeks ago and has basically kept on showing it off and on, and now that its in the ecmwf time frame its' showing it too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Day 6 frame shows the system traveling from the GoM and seemingly up the coast but the cold air's not really pushing quickly as it is still hung back in TN. Then it sort of treks more off from the coast and the cold air doesn't really get pass the Apps at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 No snow through 144 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 156, cold pressing SE, spilling over the Apps. Positively tilted trough over the south central US. Surface low just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We may actually have something to watch here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Canadian has been honking this Miller A TN snow threat with deep trough in MS Valley for a few days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The surface high over the Midwest is a little bit stronger on this run (1033 MB) compared with the 18Z run (~1026 MB) for the weekend low that heads up the coast along the front. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 180, trough still positive tilt as it approaches the SE, but the two streams are beginning to phase. 1036 high building in and 850 0 line is through RDU. SLP off of the NC coast, a bit too far east for a widespread event. The players are on the board, though. This run is awfully close to a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 katy bar the door...it's snowing in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Any chance we get a cut-off low post 180 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 You can see a bit of precipitation break out between 174-192. Actually gives SW NC and extreme NE GA a couple of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 This run is edging toward where other models and GFS was going and thats a possible cutoff somewhere in the Southeast. As the Alaskan vortex gets the boot southeast, that pumps a ridge sharply in the west, which causes a steepening of the s/w in the southeast at that time. Winter storm is possible in that time frame somewhere in the Southeast. It fits the pattern but its dangerous to say where yet , east side of Apps, west or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Tried its best to cut off 1 contour around 186-189 but never did...regardless its an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 There are major changes from the 12z GFS on the 00z GFS. Big ridge in the west. Oh wow, is that the PV being displaced at the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Tried its best to cut off 1 contour around 186-189 but never did...regardless its an interesting run. It actually did close off at 204 but it seemed kind of strange. It looked to be opening up at 192 then at 204 it's closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Coastal NC seems to be the winner this run.... snow showers in WNC also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Coastal NC seems to be the winner this run.... snow showers in WNC also it will go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.