FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the flow in the northeast is tight with strong confluence at 5H coming into the storm there. Meanwhile the deep south has a Gulf low with overrunning, but the zero line is across Tn to Va/NC border through 156. If there were a good high pressure in New England there'd be a CAD event with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the GFS has made a pretty sharp turn with the late week cold. It's stalling it, since the northern stream splits, most energy drops in to the SW but opens up by 126 hours , meanwhile the cold front is stalled near the Apps. At 138 precip is ovrrunning it in Tex and Ok. Looks too warm in the Southeast unless some damming can occur. IF we could get a HP to lock in and develop a CAD we'd be in bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Look out NC mtns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The high strengthens as it should in this setup with strong confluence, meanwhile precip from a Gulf low spreads over the south. Looks cold enough for snow at Knoxville, Boone to Richmond and very light snow into central and northern VA. at 162 to 168 hours The trough doesn't quit sharpen too much but its def. something to watch. Its not far from adecent winter storm in the Upper South. We'd need slightly colder push of air for more folks on the thursday and Friday cold front before the overrunning begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the GFS has made a pretty sharp turn with the late week cold. It's stalling it, since the northern stream splits, most energy drops in to the SW but opens up by 126 hours , meanwhile the cold front is stalled near the Apps. At 138 precip is ovrrunning it in Tex and Ok. Looks too warm in the Southeast unless some damming can occur. Looking at the current run of the gfs at 150, damn, you'd think we were about to be in business... but the cold air never really pushes in, and the storm stays suppressed to the south. I actually think we have a chance around this time period for something exciting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Pretty much stalled and brings winter wx action for a bunch of folks!! It's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Cahir's connection (Ireland ridge) and western Alaska ridge are there at 168 and builds after that. Surface pressure of around 1060mb in western /central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Pretty much stalled and brings winter wx action for a bunch of folks!! It's a start Obviously I shouldnt even be looking at projected 2 m temps this far out but goofus has the dagum freezing line up near the PA NY border, geez lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is definitely a step in the right direction to me. If we could get more of a cold push or some coastal redevelopment jan 88 all over or a smaller version of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 looks like massive ridging in nw alaska and Scandinavia, but the model does n't push the cold due south, instead it spreads out across most of the continent stopping half way into the US..large 1058 or 1060 high in Canada sprawls from day 7 and day 10 to ridge down into the Ohio Valley to Plains, but strong zonal flow south of that. I'm sure there will be disturbances riding through there, but the models can't see that now. The weight of the arctic air usually pushes pretty far south in true cold airmasses so I woldn't be surprised to see it bleed down to Tn (right up to the Apps and down through Ok. to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 looks like after we flirt with the cold air around day 10 and shortly after the cold eases back up, never really makes it this far south. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yep Robert it's a long range nightmare but you gotta think this has got to make for a cold late jan early feb, now way this stays bottled up and the whole us stays warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 looks like massive ridging in nw alaska and Scandinavia, but the model does n't push the cold due south, instead it spreads out across most of the continent stopping half way into the US..large 1058 or 1060 high in Canada sprawls from day 7 and day 10 to ridge down into the Ohio Valley to Plains, but strong zonal flow south of that. I'm sure there will be disturbances riding through there, but the models can't see that now. The weight of the arctic air usually pushes pretty far south in true cold airmasses so I woldn't be surprised to see it bleed down to Tn (right up to the Apps and down through Ok. to some degree. I rarely post but read plenty and have learned so much from you and so many others on here.....but I have a quick question. Those disturbances that most likely will be riding through could easily help pop a low that would help pull that cold air south also right? I would think at this range just the idea that kind of cold that close is not a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I rarely post but read plenty and have learned so much from you and so many others on here.....but I have a quick question. Those disturbances that most likely will be riding through could easily help pop a low that would help pull that cold air south also right? I would think at this range just the idea that kind of cold that close is not a bad thing. Yeah, we always have an amplification somewhere when the GFS shows zonal for thousands of miles. Thats pretty much a given. So far, they've been out west, and warmed us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Canadian still riding the miller a type solution, doesn't deposit the second piece of energy in the southwest. Looking at the model on Canada's weather service site, so I can't tell temps, but looks cold and snowy for most of tennessee. Kinda ridiculous that the most consistent model has been the canadian. Obviously consistent doesn't mean accurate... but some hope for us in the upper mid south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Pattern recognition indicates 2 options: 1. Cold sets up above a zonal flow from Oklahoma thru Ohio into the NE. NC says on the warm side within the zonal flow. 2. We get a sharp outbreak of cold that moves in and quickly out same as we had January 2. It is interesting to see which plays out. First option gives us no snow. Second option would have to get a digging wave to dump into the trough and produce a storm. Always a big timing issue with option 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gotta love the 6z GFS. We are in the "heart" of winter and the 850 zero line does not enter GA until hour 312 on that run. Truthfully we should really start a thread for analysis for 144 hours or less since it is very obvious the models are not that accurate beyond that range. Most of this winter has been relegated to analysis of the 192+hr frames of the model runs which is nuts. Two years ago anyone who would have talked about 192+hour maps would get flamed. Now our eyes are glued to them. Just shows you how bad this winter is. Back in november I was very pessimistic about this winter and I was accused of jumping to conclusions and being a weenie and it seems so far this winter is playing out just liker I feared. This was the first winter i can remember in quite sometime where I was truly down on the chances of a decent winter or any winter weather events. I thought it would be bad and so far it's been about as bad as it can get for much of he country. I'm don't normally come to such negative conclusions before it even starts. For example, Last year for example, despite all the forecasts for really warm weather, I was really optimistic and thought it would be a good winter and I was right. I pray that feb is different but I'm still not optimistic. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah, we always have an amplification somewhere when the GFS shows zonal for thousands of miles. Thats pretty much a given. So far, they've been out west, and warmed us up. I was afraid the 'pattern change' would be short lived, and the GFS has been showing the cold air retreating for about 3-4 runs in a row now due to various reasons like the Alaskan vortex making a return, and ridging setting up on the other side of the globe which lowers heights in Canada. This fits in with what the Euro weeklies show, shots of cold air but nothing sustained. I never would have guessed the CFSv2 would be right, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the GFS has made a pretty sharp turn with the late week cold. It's stalling it, since the northern stream splits, most energy drops in to the SW but opens up by 126 hours , meanwhile the cold front is stalled near the Apps. At 138 precip is ovrrunning it in Tex and Ok. Looks too warm in the Southeast unless some damming can occur. The GFS ensemble members are generally colder than the Op and the CMC continues its colder trend as well, I think it will be colder than the latest Op GFS shows. After that, the GFS ensemble mean shows the AK block a bit too far west for my taste and no signs of a negative NAO- the Canada PV as a result is pretty far north well north of Hudson's Bay. The ridge is still present along the West Coast so it looks chilly but signs of a massive cold air dump all the way to us are faint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I was afraid the 'pattern change' would be short lived, and the GFS has been showing the cold air retreating for about 3-4 runs in a row now due to various reasons like the Alaskan vortex making a return, and ridging setting up on the other side of the globe which lowers heights in Canada. This fits in with what the Euro weeklies show, shots of cold air but nothing sustained. I never would have guessed the CFSv2 would be right, heh. nothing's happened yet though. It's all on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The GFS ensemble members are generally colder than the Op and the CMC continues its colder trend as well, I think it will be colder than the latest Op GFS shows. After that, the GFS ensemble mean shows the AK block a bit too far west for my taste and no signs of a negative NAO- the Canada PV as a result is pretty far north well north of Hudson's Bay. The ridge is still present along the West Coast so it looks chilly but signs of a massive cold air dump all the way to us are faint. Thanks I haven't looked at those yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Back in november I was very pessimistic about this winter and I was accused of jumping to conclusions and being a weenie and it seems so far this winter is playing out just liker I feared. This was the first winter i can remember in quite sometime where I was truly down on the chances of a decent winter or any winter weather events. I thought it would be bad and so far it's been about as bad as it can get for much of he country. I'm don't normally come to such negative conclusions before it even starts. For example, Last year for example, despite all the forecasts for really warm weather, I was really optimistic and thought it would be a good winter and I was right. I pray that feb is different but I'm still not optimistic. Hopefully I'm wrong. even last fall there appeared to be a lot of different signs pointing to a less than stellar winter (although that was supposed to be the case last year according to many, it turned out great, but we could tell that in nov/dec). so far this year (well the rest of this winter i guess), the signs still dont look great and i havent seen any indications like the last few years (ending up wetter than progged, colder, etc.) to be overly optimistic. until the cold air is in the US and moving in there are just too many variables against it. by the time it may end up happening could be the end of feb into early march which wont help most of us outside the higher elevations). agreed, just one storms can turn a blah winter into a really good one, but i will believe that when i see it i guess the only saving "grace" so to speak, is i havent been glued to my computer screen the last few weeks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks I haven't looked at those yet. 144 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Good news from the Strat thread... SSW Jan 18-20th looking good now. I'm fairly confident this time. I agree, Jorge. The pattern is looking better by the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This is looking a lot like the 1988-89 winter to me. If I'm right then we may have a couple of chances for ice or snow in Feb, then if the 1989 pattern continues, severe weather in March, April, and May. BTW, May of that year featured a freeze in the western Carolinas. GSP down to 31 and AVL down to 27 or 28.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Good news from the Strat thread... Agree the warming at 10hPa is absoutely through the roof today The ECM is almost forecasting a SSW now,maybe in a few more days it will.Stratalerts could be coming out very soon. It still will be 3 or 4 weeks before we feel affects,maybe sooner this go around because of the strong warming though. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Just looked at the 12z GFS op and ensemble, they don't look perfect but they don't look terrible either, couple chances in the run, still way better than what we have been going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Still looks good to me with a lot going on in the next 5-7 days. The wheels are in motion and a SSW can only help. I wouldn't be surprised to see coast to coast cold before the winter is over, with several chances to follow storms on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 already as early as 120 hours there are big differences btwn the models. The ecmwf has the cold air coming down strongly and arrives at the Apps by Thursday morning, with -10 to -12 back in Ark. and Missouri. The southwest cutoff is well off the Calif. coast. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 already as early as 120 hours there are big differences btwn the models. The ecmwf has the cold air coming down strongly and arrives at the Apps by Thursday morning, with -10 to -12 back in Ark. and Missouri. The southwest cutoff is well off the Calif. coast. though. The difference between the Op GFS and Op Euro is pretty staggering, but not totally unexpected given the large spread in the ensembles for both models. This Euro run does reinforce my feeling the Op GFS was OTL on the cold here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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