FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What do you think Foothills. Haven't seen the GFS yet . We have 2 to 3 good runs of the Ecmwf showing the building ridge in western Alaska, but on the other side of the globe its uncertain where the ridge builds...one run has Scandinavia, one has eastern Greenland. Either one though still points the cold air in Canada and the Polar Regions to shoot due south. Look how the flow is shaping up on this run: Day 9 Day 10 The big thing to note is the developing ridge that begins to grow and then cutoff into a massive 576dm closed high in a nice spot. Split flow (weak) develops to the south in the Pacific. (rare in a nina). Meanwhile on day 9, see the large positive tilt trough axis in southern Canada? That's how you grow a 1040 to 1050mb surface arctic high. And the model does that with around 1040mb I think. And by day 10, the strong pos. tilt trough is entering the US, but by the the actual surface cold front is stretched from the Northeast to the Tx. panhandle. On day 9, the cold air is just entering the northern plains and Montana. On day 10, the zero line has surged to Penn, northern Arkansas to Texas panhandle. That jives with how Arctic outbreaks occur...once the strong CaK. high plunges east of the Continental divide, there's not much that can stop it. In fact its helped by the Great Lakes storm that moves from Montana to western NY at that time. Meanwhile, the southern Cutoff is in south Texas and that has to be watched. Also on this run the 180 hour system is very close to developing something along the Gulf coast to Southeast coast. Right after that, we grow warm until the arctic boundary comes in. All this is getting within a good timeframe, more reliable than day 10+, so things are going to happen fast. The block in western Alaska or Bering Straight is looking more and more likely, and that sends the cold air tumbling south. The head ache part is how the Pacific ends up looking..its a mess there offshore with deep troughs that might close off, but the powerhouse driver should be the big 576 ridge, combined with opposite ridging in Scandinavia, and actually those 2 ridges almost meet, producing cross-polar flow. Overall, this looks like what most on the board have been waiting for, a true pattern change and for the cold up north to come down in a huge mass, with no quick exit. If it evolves like the last couple of runs ECMWF then we turn our eyes to systems that come out of the Pacific, either rolling across the Alaska ridge and down into the Pacific northwest, which would then either minor out or dig toward the southern rockies, or from systems coming into southern California and taking a supressed track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks foothills for the great analysis. So all in all the big picture still shows a ridge forming over AK and that in turn pushes an artic high south into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Thanks foothills for the great analysis. So all in all the big picture still shows a ridge forming over AK and that in turn pushes an artic high south into the conus. Yep. Several arctic highs, pretty much what you want to see and what has been lacking this season so far...the big sprawling surface arctic highs. Now the ECMWF has 2 big ones at day 9 and 10. The first one begins sliding down the front range of the Rockies as a 1044mb high just north of Montana. By day 10 the next big high is linked with it, already developing at the North Pole and sliding into northern Canada. Its a great look if you like bone chilling cold, and its pointed right into the US. I havent looked much at surface temps but they should be -30 to -45 degrees, and cover vast expanses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I like this statement too... Maybe you're right and I'm wrong, I'm just not sold on the idea of any worthwhile -PNA anytime soon. "Climo" definitely has not worked out well at all this winter, which La Nina winters with warm Decembers and strong +AO from November through January seem to come in a decadal cycle, and in the -PDO phase cycle, all Ninas that torched over most of the US in October, November, December and January, except 1, have seen a flip in February sometime, and there are many of those years that all occur just before the solar maximum. Weak and/or mixed QBO phases seem to occur when the Interplanetary Field is weak and ready to flip, which happened in (1956/57, 1967/68, 1978/79, 1989/90, 1999/00), which have all come up as good analogs this winter. I don't usually look at ensembles with any seriousness after day 7 especially for the MJO which varies wildly, nor use long range models to forecast during a period when a pattern change may be in store because often it isn't picked up until the 6-10 day range if it is of vague causation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yep. Several arctic highs, pretty much what you want to see and what has been lacking this season so far...the big sprawling surface arctic highs. Now the ECMWF has 2 big ones at day 9 and 10. The first one begins sliding down the front range of the Rockies as a 1044mb high just north of Montana. By day 10 the next big high is linked with it, already developing at the North Pole and sliding into northern Canada. Its a great look if you like bone chilling cold, and its pointed right into the US. I havent looked much at surface temps but they should be -30 to -45 degrees, and cover vast expanses. man you were up late for nothing!! I heading out to get trash up in parking lots and you back on. Better be forecasting something good. A lot of cliff divers on the edge!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 man you were up late for nothing!! I heading out to get trash up in parking lots and you back on. Better be forecasting something good. A lot of cliff divers on the edge!! Correction: up early. I missed the GFS. But now I see how it's doing. Since we're only 6 days away or so from the pattern changing around Alaska, its no wonder we have big disagreements. The orientation of the ridge and downstream evolution of features will mean everything. The GFS dumps more into a deep trough off the Northwest, consequently has a mean ridge in the middle of the US...with troughing in Northeast and east Canada, pretty much through its run. Ecmwf has more troughing in the middle and easter US, but it only goes to day 10 and already it has a big dump of cold to the Tex. panhandle-Ark-Pa region with plenty of cold under a sprawling 1040mb, with attachments further north to the pole ready to drop south. All we can do is see how the models handle things the next few days, but I doubt we get a lot of agreement until the block is firmly formed, and thats a week. There's actually some good, interesting weather though before that even happens, like what happens next weekend when the Tx. cutoff (if its there) begins to move east. By then, we may have cold air in the east, or that thing could be like ecmwf and wait to ride the southern part of the arctic airmass. The GFS has always been a possibility though so I'm not dismissing it. Both models are going to be chaotic and have had trouble being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm glad somebody else gets up like me. Models have been crazy especially last 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I'm glad somebody else gets up like me. Models have been crazy especially last 3-4 weeks. yeah, we're going to need some valium or lunesta just to get through the next 4 weeks. I think the models will show everything from big snows to record heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 There are a lot of extremes showing up in the models. One day are freezing cold and the next above average. If you look to much into one model it could drive you crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 There are a lot of extremes showing up in the models. One day are freezing cold and the next above average. If you look to much into one model it could drive you crazy. It's all about patterns right now. Specifics will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gotta love the 6z GFS. We are in the "heart" of winter and the 850 zero line does not enter GA until hour 312 on that run. Truthfully we should really start a thread for analysis for 144 hours or less since it is very obvious the models are not that accurate beyond that range. Most of this winter has been relegated to analysis of the 192+hr frames of the model runs which is nuts. Two years ago anyone who would have talked about 192+hour maps would get flamed. Now our eyes are glued to them. Just shows you how bad this winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Can someone please explain what a Cahir's connection is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 yeah, we're going to need some valium or lunesta just to get through the next 4 weeks. I think the models will show everything from big snows to record heat. I just need one snow or some ice. I am ready either way. Looking a buying to v salters now o go on dump trucks. If I don't use them this year always have next winter. Models have not been accurate unless within a few days. The 10 day out storms gets most excited when we all know they don't verify too often. I do believe we will get a surprise just don' know when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Can someone please explain what a Cahir's connection is? Appears to be a ridge seems to have a pretty strong Cahir's Connection (ridge NE of the Caspian Sea known for signaling cold in the east) at 240 hrs, however http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/217883-12z-models-12-31-09/page__st__20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yea, I did a search and found that post but I couldn't really tell much else other than it is a ridge. I was hoping to find the location/orientation so I could get a better feel for what CT Blizz posted over here (I asked this same question there too) http://www.americanw...20#entry1252736 EDIT: Here's the answer: Theory that, when a ridge develops over Central Russia from the Caspian Sea North towards the Urals, it leads to a positive PNA over NA a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yea, I did a search and found that post but I couldn't really tell much else other than it is a ridge. I was hoping to find the location/orientation so I could get a better feel for what CT Blizz posted over here (I asked this same question there too) http://www.americanw...20#entry1252736 EDIT: Here's the answer: Theory that, when a ridge develops over Central Russia from the Caspian Sea North towards the Urals, it leads to a positive PNA over NA a week later. Saw that post. Joe Bastardi uses that term quite a bit. I'm no expert, but I do know the actual pattern can produce extreme cold if the pattern were to happen. I think it's just one of many options on the table. I maintain that weather models have a very difficult time w/ very cold air because it's shallow and near the ground. FWIW, I was not too excited by the last two runs of the GFS and the 0z Euro. There is going to be a lot of variation in this pattern, Cahir's collection would be one of the extreme solutions for us and probably a bit of an outlier at the moment. Not saying it is going to happen, but outliers do happen such as last winter. Would be pretty cool. The massive variations for each model run seem to hint at a rather large change is on its way. One would think the East may be sitting in good shape, but w/ so much variability most options from extreme cold to a torch are on the table. I have been(and still do) leaning cold for the 2-4 week time period, but that is just an opinion from a hobbiest. FWIW(and this should serve as a warning to my opinions) this winter is happening almost opposite of how I thought it would unfold back in October, early November. If Cahir's begins showing-up on future model runs, it will certainly get my attention even more so than now. I stated this a week or so ago(noticed some folks on the main board talking yesterday and last night) but spring is not looking warm. On a side note, does anyone have any ideas for next summer? I hope it won't be as bad as last summer. I know it will be hot at somepoint(we live in the South obviously) but 90s all of the time is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 The worst thing about the last few GFS runs and the Euro is that it would fit with what we've seen most of the winter. Hopefully the 12z gives us back some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gotta love the 6z GFS. We are in the "heart" of winter and the 850 zero line does not enter GA until hour 312 on that run. Truthfully we should really start a thread for analysis for 144 hours or less since it is very obvious the models are not that accurate beyond that range. Most of this winter has been relegated to analysis of the 192+hr frames of the model runs which is nuts. Two years ago anyone who would have talked about 192+hour maps would get flamed. Now our eyes are glued to them. Just shows you how bad this winter is. Well, that would be a pretty short thread then....warm/rain/dry. Done. Haha! If it wasn't for 192 hours and beyond, we'd never see any Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Who knows how this will work out. If it were cut and dry, it wouldn't be any fun, would it? FWIW, the 0z Euro has some of the coldest air in the hemisphere plunging to the central US/Canada border, dropping Southeast quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 As others have stated, it seems relatively certain that a big ridge of some sort will go up near Alaska in the longer medium range. The question is does it close off and allow troughing to dig in beneath it, thus allowing the cold air to dump more toward the northwestern parts of the continent? Or, does it remain more of a full latitude ridge/ block, and dump the cold more into the central and eastern US? The models are pretty split. I don't have a great answer at this point either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 As others have stated, it seems relatively certain that a big ridge of some sort will go up near Alaska in the longer medium range. The question is does it close off and allow troughing to dig in beneath it, thus allowing the cold air to dump more toward the northwestern parts of the continent? Or, does it remain more of a full latitude ridge/ block, and dump the cold more into the central and eastern US? The models are pretty split. I don't have a great answer at this point either. I agree. And around day 9 and 10 the Euro has a nice Lakes system thats deepening pretty well, and drags the front so far south. But out at that time range is where models have problems. I was thinking of how many western troughs have separated this season, and that might keep on. For example once the Alaska ridge is formed, any decent trough may split as it comes toward the Pacific northwest and that's what makes forecasting so hard by day 5. I imagine a trough may top that ridge and then break in two, one piece driving toward the Lakes like the ecmwf has with a separate part hanging back west somewhere. The eastern Pacific looks a mess because the models can't decide how to draw that area yet. Who knows. But that might not end up being a bad thing, and already the subtropical jetstream and split flow is showing up just after day 10 on GFS so with split flow we'd have moisture coming toward the southern US after day 10. Then we'd need that arctic air and surface highs to be placed in the Plains or Lakes....thats how we normally get our snows this far south anyway. But I'm not saying it will play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 What get's me is (if I remember correctly) is the GFS was the most consistent with building that tall ridge, Then all of a sudden it turns opposite direction and three runs in a row at that? We were riding GFS for the turn to colder just because of it being consistent, Now it's three runs in a row with no cold much, It's a crap shoot! and the way this winter has been so far it seems to want to lean on the warm side ever chance it gets.... Who knows!!! Hopefully the 12z flips back. Plenty of time yet as it is long range but getting into med range, So I would like to see more agreement with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Who knows how this will work out. If it were cut and dry, it wouldn't be any fun, would it? FWIW, the 0z Euro has some of the coldest air in the hemisphere plunging to the central US/Canada border, dropping Southeast quickly. True true, these last few runs have had more twist and turns than the 3rd season of Lost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 yeah, we're going to need some valium or lunesta just to get through the next 4 weeks. I think the models will show everything from big snows to record heat. We will be ok....because we know things ARE crazy right now....so there is still a chance....If ALL of the models were agreeing on "SE ridge and warmth here I come", then break out the valium Right now....I'm good....not to the ledge at this point yet.....If all the models were to flip to warmth the rest of the winter, Lookout's ledge would be infamous and most of us would have to find some new friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 There is a big spread with the NAO modeling. As others have said we will not not until about 7 days out; at least until the pattern actually flips. See how tight the below runs are (7 or so day out) and then they lose it and go in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Who knows how this will work out. If it were cut and dry, it wouldn't be any fun, would it? FWIW, the 0z Euro has some of the coldest air in the hemisphere plunging to the central US/Canada border, dropping Southeast quickly. +1..I remember reading a quote by one of the Mets(Typhoon Tip) who said something like "He didn't care where it snowed, it was more fun to see all the elements come together to see what made it snowed".. It has certainly been a learning experience the last few months..Learned more about the weather in 2 months than anytime in my life...A big thank you to all the Mets and Pro-forecasters who share there knowledge of the weather..I'm hooked on the play by play of the models,really enjoyable.. Now lets sit back and watch as things slowly come into place for what i believe will still be a good winter for someone in the SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Gotta love the 6z GFS. We are in the "heart" of winter and the 850 zero line does not enter GA until hour 312 on that run. Truthfully we should really start a thread for analysis for 144 96 hours or less since it is very obvious the models are not that accurate beyond that range. Most of this winter has been relegated to analysis of the 192+hr frames of the model runs which is nuts. Two years ago anyone who would have talked about 192+hour maps would get flamed. Now our eyes are glued to them. Just shows you how bad this winter is. ok fixed it for you lol. obviously i am still reading the board and checking in, but so far there is just nothing out there within a reasonable range to really even pay attention to at this point (imho). sure the models are showing something waaaaay out there, but until any of those actually verify i am not really gung on on any winter wx in the se (seems like i read that less than 17% of the country has snow at this point, and last year was i think nearing 50%?) during all this discussion i have yet to see anything actually fall in to place in 'real time' versus the models. until i start seeing that this winter is a major bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 True true, these last few runs have had more twist and turns than the 3rd season of Lost! Oh, excellent! A Lost reference.....now we're talking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Everybody is focused on the long range but we do have some intersting things coming up in the next couple of days. Surface temps/wet-bulbs too warm (up stream) for wintery p-types but this does looks like a mini CAD setup for at least the NC people. 12z NAM below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 the GFS has made a pretty sharp turn with the late week cold. It's stalling it, since the northern stream splits, most energy drops in to the SW but opens up by 126 hours , meanwhile the cold front is stalled near the Apps. At 138 precip is ovrrunning it in Tex and Ok. Looks too warm in the Southeast unless some damming can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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