Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I wouldn't say that because the AO and NAO are going to have to switch at some point. If it switches over in late March for example then we would have a cold and rainy spring. Eyewall mentioned this yesterday. Anyway that's getting ahead of ourselves though. Let's see what ends up happening first. I agree. There is still a lot that can go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Don S. has been staunchly against a cold/snowy winter. He's gone with warmer than normal in Dec, slightly warmer than normal in Jan, and warmer than normal in Feb....so far, he's been right. Definitely mixed opinions from the mets on the board. Don S. is not a doom and gloom guy either, past winters he's called for the blocking and was right the majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Any analysis about the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Any analysis about the 00Z. Only out to 48. Check back at like 11:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Only out to 48. Check back at like 11:30 Thanks Burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 00z basically identical with the rain next week. One difference on the back end though is it doesn't look as cold. We'll see what happens though out to 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Be nice if that sw in the 4 corners could rev up and track due east : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Cliff Dive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Be nice if that sw in the 4 corners could rev up and track due east : Just keeps spinning and spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Cliff Dive? Not quite yet....looks like a cutoff might be forming in TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 At 180 the PNA breaks down which allows SE ridge to build, next weekend will be mild. Hopefully at 240 we start seeing the "pattern" change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Things look to get interesting at 180 IF we can keep the cold around. It has a system forming in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 At 180 the PNA breaks down which allows SE ridge to build, next weekend will be mild. Hopefully at 240 we start seeing the "pattern" change.... Yep cold air quickly retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Dreadful!! We'll be looking into early Feb. before long. I give GFS some credit, back on Jan 2nd it had a major storm for the 17th that buried us in snow, at least it still holds onto the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 That run was the pre-pattern change. Maybe the last 10 days of January will be the actual change :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Bump as a reminder... A small piece of advice for everyone: Please do not get to excited or depressed and overly discuss any individual run of any model right now when it comes to the 7 day and longer range. Last night's Euro ensemble spread was massive, and just look at what the GFS, Euro and CMC are doing in a week of so with the next trough- all very different. It will get cold here, but beyond that any details are literally impossible to discern, and I for one will not even try until more agreement occurs and I suspect that will be quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Whoever said the other night, I predict pain...That pretty much describes the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or at least wait until the ensemble members and means come out before commencing your cliff dive Bump as a reminder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 After 18z and now 00z I suspect JB is really scratching his head tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Off to the CMC and European! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or at least wait until the ensemble members and means come out before commencing your cliff dive HAH, no cliff diving yet, I am rather enjoying thus warm winter do far. Way better than brutal dry cold Jan 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or at least wait until the ensemble members and means come out before commencing your cliff dive They don't look that bad. The operational showing that Alaskan vortex coming back is cliff dive worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Or at least wait until the ensemble members and means come out before commencing your cliff dive I don't get whats up with the OP GFS the last 2 runs. The 0z ensemble mean is every bit as cold as the 18z ensemble mean despite the horrible looking 0z Operational run. For my area, central NC, it keeps me just at or below 0 at 850 from 144hrs till the end of the run. It does look somewhat drier though as well with the flow more suppressed I guess. It is all confusing though with conflicting information and no agreement even within the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Anybody going to do EURO analyses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 00z CMC Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Now the Euro has the short wave on the southern edge of the next trough closed off well west of CA. The same short wave the CMC phases in with the main trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Seems like the GFS Ensemble members handle the next cold front quite differently than the OP, not shocking, I know. The OP is probably the weakest overall with how much cold it gives to the SE, the individual members up to 192 look colder. Even a couple of them give a chance for wintry weather around 180-186 for various parts of the SE. We can't rule anything out of the realm yet, way too much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 This essentially goes back to what most of us have been preaching here, and that is no one should even attempt to focus on one particular storm, especially with the various solutions that continue to pop up on a day-to-day basis. Even in a matter of a few hours it seems to change a good bit (e.g. GFS). How each of them handle the flow in this ever-changing situation is hard enough, let alone seeing any systems that may or may not eventually merge with any cold shot that drives itself down toward our region and even tougher beyond 10 days. I certainly do not plan on trying to pin my hopes to anything interesting at the moment after watching how the runs shift so much, be it a model showing something that another one had as a previous solution or otherwise. Heck, look what happened to the predicted event for early next week. Earlier this week it was a potential winter storm of some sort and now it looks to be a nice rainmaker for some folks with possibly some thunderstorm activity if there is enough support for such. However, I still lean toward a longer, colder pattern sometime later this month with our first possible legit threat during the week 3 or 4 period but it is quite a long way to go before we cross that bridge. I'd like to think that eventually this month one of these systems will produce, and nicely at that, for someone. Who that will be for we can't say, let alone if we get said winter event but who knows where this pattern goes. Realistically speaking, it can easily remain warmer (though I wouldn't think anything massive) than what some of the models depict but it can also go colder so there's that to take into consideration. Overall, this is merely a wait-and-see kind of situation and to be honest even if January didn't produce something epic, we still have all of February and the first half of March and those months have proven to produce the most exciting winter events in history so I say this winter isn't all gloom and doom just yet. We have much more to go and with that I say just enjoy the ride and keep watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New Euro ensembles same as the old- a huge spread in the members after 144 hours. Almost every solution represented- a complete crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 New Euro ensembles same as the old- a huge spread in the members after 144 hours. Almost every solution represented- a complete crapshoot. Sorry to ask a dumb question but when you say spread doeas that mean the models are all over the place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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