SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II

[griteater]

Euro has deposited the '2nd' southern wave southwest of Arizona at Day 6. So, we have quite a spread with the op runs.

[Brick Tamland]

Great pattern coming up, or interesting. The cold is pressing south , all the way from Canada, and once we turn cold in a week, we don't warm much at all, and keep cold coming in with the highs placed to our north and northwest. Best news to me is the undercutting going on in southern California. Classic setup. Verbatim, major NC snowstorm, not quite cold enough further south, but wintry looking from 240 through the end of the run. The pattern looks good to me. Only other way to look better is to build a Greenland block, which may end up being too supressed..but as it is, some folks are going to comine Cold+ Moisture.

I'm not about to jump on the snow train just yet, but I'm standing on the platform and watching her warm up!

[FoothillsNC]

Euro has deposited the '2nd' southen wave southwest of Arizona at Day 6. So, we have quite a spread with the op runs.

that will be the system to watch. This run takes it to south Texas and then nearly loses it. Meanwhile at 192 the next s/w is coming into the northwest with a ridge poking up into Gulf of Alaska. Obviously that southern system could or could not hold together as it heads east across the gulf. It would probably be hard to get much moisture north since the first system is so powerful and has strong nw flow.

[Brick Tamland]

12z GFS Ensemble mean looks interesting at hour 204. Look forward to seeing the individual members

Definitely think the pattern favors cold for mid to late January. HOwever, +NAO and lack of +PNA still cause me pause and makes me think heart of the cold stays north of here till that changes. With that said even slightly below normal temperatures in mid to late January could make things interesting.

RaleighWx makes me all giddy when he starts posting here about snow.

[burgertime]

Looks like the bigger problem with the Euro is going to be temps on this run.

[burgertime]

@222 that low is in Central FL and it looks like it's just gonna head south looks like it might round the bend....plus as I mentioned temps aren't looking good in that time frame either.

[FoothillsNC]

@222 that low is in Central FL and it looks like it's just gonna head south....plus as I mentioned temps aren't looking good in that time frame either.

It pivots the cold out, its a brief hit of cold, then reloads in teh west of Canada. Look at the huge ridging going up in West Alaska , meanwhile a new system comes into the northwest and Rockies, that may be the true pattern change. We will likely warm up first (after this next cold shot) before we get into a good pattern.

[NEGa]

When it comes to statistics, you can use them to show about anything. The key thing though is that snowfall at our latitude is all about patterns. We haven't had the pattern yet. I see the mis-use of stats all the time (no jab). But if you look at when we're likely to get our one 6" snowfall , almost in all cases it's from 1) an upper low that takes the right path (Feb and Mar is most likely candidates) and 2) a blocking pattern. Well we have seen the first, and now we're seeing signs of the second. Snow can occur anytime of course from Dec. to Mar., but we get so little snow, the fact that we've already missed half of the "time period" that it possibly can snow really doesn't mean much. Once we get into a pattern that offers the chance at snow here, and once we've used up half of those 4 to 6 weeks without any measurable snow, only then can you really say that we've wasted half of Winter. In my opinion. Remember, its rare to have chances at snow realistically from Dec. to Mar. Last year's pattern of 8 weeks of blocking did in fact produce though, and it just so happens we got hit twice, once in Dec.and once in Jan. Notice how it occurred in the proper pattern?

Pattern recognition and blocking at high latitudes is key. So let's wait and see if we get that blocking , and where.

the last few winters spoiled a lot of us (me included lol). however, those two years were very unusual for the sustained cold, the magnitude of the cold and a ton of snow with little ice. this year, sadly, is more typical for se winters. however, the last two winters aside, all it really takes is one good or two decent storms for most of us to get at or above our "average" snowfall.

as long as we can get the pattern to finally change (soon rather than later haha) there is still plenty of time for most of us to see wintry weather. back to reality, i still would be happy with any snowfall over 2", which is viable for a lot of the se for at least the next two months or so (after mid march chances do tend to fall off quickly other than the mtns of western nc)

[Gastonwxman]

Looks like a brief warm up on the Euro before the next shot comes in at the end but it is still west of here at that point.

[FoothillsNC]

This run generally agrees that things get changing around day 7, so thats the first good agreement in a pretty short range that we've seen yet. Details will change, but both have western Alaska ridging and a massive cold outbreak, both in size and depth of cold, but the Southeast is warm at day 10 and into the MidAtlantic, just before the cold invades. With all the energy slated to (possibly) move along the southern edge of the cold, it looks good to me beyond day 10.

[Cheeznado]

that will be the system to watch. This run takes it to south Texas and then nearly loses it. Meanwhile at 192 the next s/w is coming into the northwest with a ridge poking up into Gulf of Alaska. Obviously that southern system could or could not hold together as it heads east across the gulf. It would probably be hard to get much moisture north since the first system is so powerful and has strong nw flow.

Keep in mind that the GFS takes that short wave and has it so far west it ends up in the other side of the EPAC ridge, while the CMC rockets it SE and absorbs it it the eastern trough. If you held a gun to my head for a forecast for later next week I would say a frontal passage, some cold but not as cold as this past event and some snow in the Apps. But as my previous post said, many things are possible right now but unfortunately snow in the next 10 days except in the mountains is one of the lower probability outcomes.

[FoothillsNC]

Keep in mind that the GFS takes that short wave and has it so far west it ends up in the other side of the EPAC ridge, while the CMC rockets it SE and absorbs it it the eastern trough. If you held a gun to my head for a forecast for later next week I would say a frontal passage, some cold but not as cold as this past event and some snow in the Apps. But as my previous post said, many things are possible right now but unfortunately snow in the next 10 days except in the mountains is one of the lower probability outcomes.

I'm focusing more at the day 7 and beyond range. I'm not really interested in that next Texas system late next week, because it appears we'll be warming up by then most likely, as everything is beginning to change in the northwest around Alaska. What comes after that period is what has always held the best promise, and atleast it consistutes a pattern change. Whereas before there was a huge Ak. vortex, its about to get dislodged and the very cold air that has been trapped in northern Canada will come tumbling south and spread out. Then things get interesting once cold air encompasses a huge region of North America.

[griteater]

Pretty darn good looking ridging up into Greenland at 216 - 240 on the Euro

[NEGa]

I agree and I also believe that a pattern change is coming, what I don't know yet is if the pattern that develops actually ends up producing. I'm optimistic about a pattern change and have been for quite some time. But literally anything specific in models at that range is borderline worthless. I like where things are heading but I want to see a threat on the models to get excited, right now I see no real threat anywhere.

well i dont know that it will produce for all of us in the se (thats generally hard to do) but it looks like the upcoming change will end up producing for some of the se peeps (hopefully more rather than fewer lol)

A small piece of advice for everyone: Please do not get to excited or depressed and overly discuss any individual run of any model right now when it comes to the 7 day and longer range. Last night's Euro ensemble spread was massive, and just look at what the GFS, Euro and CMC are doing in a week of so with the next trough- all very different. It will get cold here, but beyond that any details are literally impossible to discern, and I for one will not even try until more agreement occurs and I suspect that will be quite a while.

well said. i havent been looking at anything past about a week - and what i am waiting for is to see the change start showing up within a week and then finally shift. then we can hopefully have some wintry wx to track. the last few years have taught me well about models in the future they rarely verify, and even so with a usually razor thin margin in the se for temps cold enough at all levels to support snow, 25 mile shift in storm track can mean the difference between a cold rain or great winter storm

although having to be patient this long (since nov haha) is starting to get on my nerves

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like next week we will have a better handle on what the pattern change will bring. We have to get that storm system out of here that's coming through the middle of next week first.

[FoothillsNC]

Strong bock (maybe rex type) for west coast, and decent ridging (east base -NAO) Greenland...classic configuration to pour the cold air south straight from the heart of its source: northern Canada and the Pole. Throw in s/w riding in from the northwest that will be forced south into the southern Rockies, and I think most on the forum would take this as a pretty good setup at some point.

Day 10:

[tnweathernut]

Strong bock (maybe rex type) for west coast, and decent ridging (east base -NAO) Greenland...classic configuration to pour the cold air south straight from the heart of its source: northern Canada and the Pole. Throw in s/w riding in from the northwest that will be forced south into the southern Rockies, and I think most on the forum would take this as a pretty good setup at some point.

Day 10:

Amen, with the longer range becoming the shorter range on key features, there are no guarantees, but there is a LOT to be optimisic about at this point.

[griteater]

Here's the color version Foothills

[FoothillsNC]

I'm used to doing this with GFS long range runs, but now we can do it with ECMWF too. Here's the day 6 through 10 animation at 850. You can see that this is really the first time this year that things up north get shaken up in a fast, hard way. So we have pretty good agreement that things are about to get in motion, maybe its tied with the strat. warming event, but either way, it's looking likely on all models and ensembles. Whats encouraging now is the warming of Greenland and Alaska simultaneously. Both have been cold and what made it so hard for us to get cold so far. In the last image you can see the core of the cold wanting to drop due south, after the first cold airmass (and blizzard on day 10 for the Upper Midwest)...so that could end up being a truely memorable arctic outbreak in the US...but its too far out to speculate yet.

[FoothillsNC]

Quite a few of the ensembles GFS at 180 hour have a midsouth or Midatlantic/East coast winter storm look to them.

[pcbjr]

One thing I notice (at least I think I notice, anyway ) is that the GFS seems to want to start warming things up after about the 20th - 21st.

Am I missing something based on current models? If not, is maybe the anticipated pattern change just not getting fully factored into the long range model output?

Understanding of course that any model 15 days out needs to be taken with a shovel full of salt.

[tnweathernut]

Robert, It looks like there are several ensemble members showing a pacific coast ridge in an ideal spot for the southeast/midsouth

[LithiaWx]

Robert, It looks like there are several ensemble members showing a pacific coast ridge in an ideal spot for the southeast/midsouth

I'll take P004 and P005 please.

[dsaur]

It also depends on where you live in the south.kinda of getting picking there. But, what works for us in the mtns might not workout for anyone farther south.

Good thought! It is all backyard centric in the end. I get my best storms and Tenn. might get shafted. Tenn. racks up from a clipper and I get squat. NC gets big snows, and I get an ice storm. Weather in the south is such that the same storm can be so very different from point to point. One of the best storms I ever didn't get was the Macon snow in 73, and my consolation prize that same year. was the worst ice storm in Atl memory....both gulf storms..and close enough together to make me think pattern, though Larry will know best. I think a Miller A is the best for the most when it comes to winter precip. though there is no guarentee as to what it will bring each of us. I always look to the gulf, and when I see storms coming under a ridge on a split flow in winter, I get excited knowing it doesn't have to be real cold, just cold enough T

[tnweathernut]

Good thought! It is all backyard centric in the end. I get my best storms and Tenn. might get shafted. Tenn. racks up from a clipper and I get squat. NC gets big snows, and I get an ice storm. Weather in the south is such that the same storm can be so very different from point to point. One of the best storms I ever didn't get was the Macon snow in 73, and my consolation prize that same year. was the worst ice storm in Atl memory....both gulf storms..and close enough together to make me think pattern, though Larry will know best. I think a Miller A is the best for the most when it comes to winter precip. though there is no guarentee as to what it will bring each of us. I always look to the gulf, and when I see storms coming under a ridge on a split flow in winter, I get excited knowing it doesn't have to be real cold, just cold enough T

Only partially correct, we usually get squat too - but again, it's all in perception. haha

To the second part, I couldn't agree more!

[tnweathernut]

Anyone have access to the Euro ensembles? When they come out, would love to know if they are mostly on board with the changes through day 7. Not as interested in the period after that.

[LithiaWx]

Anyone have access to the Euro ensembles? When they come out, would love to know if they are mostly on board with the changes through day 7. Not as interested in the period after that.

Day 7:

Day 10 :

[BullCityWx]

One of the members of the euro ensembles(or the one that are on accuwx pro) has a pretty significant cold shot about 60 hours past the end of the run. -20 850's for NC north of 40 and -15C 850 temps almost to CHS.

[BIG FROSTY]

Anyone have access to the Euro ensembles? When they come out, would love to know if they are mostly on board with the changes through day 7. Not as interested in the period after that.

Here's what a met said on front page in the medium range about ensembles. FWIW

Nice map, but the EURO ensembles show no such thing (much more zonal). This is 2 days in a row with that nice 240 hour tease from the operational EURO.

[tnweathernut]

Day 7:

Day 10 :

Ok, so I said I didnt really care about past day 7, but that's a pretty big anomaly showing up with the Alaskan blocking............ to be at day 10. Very strong signal. I guess where it sets up will mean all the difference in the world.