buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 72 180ish range color me unimpressed. I believe we all understand it's fantasy land, but for now it's all we got btw...fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed. What? How dare you! Haha it just shows how desperate we are for a storm...hell just seeing a fantasy storm has been nice. I agree though can't go one way or another until it's on us really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed. That's fine. But keep in mind, it's not JUST the GFS that's showing things happening. You have to look at all of the big picture to get a feel for what might occur. You're right, one model doesn't tell the tale, but start putting the possible -NAO, -AO, strat warming, models picking up on blocking and cold.... it all starts to add up. It's all about patterns right now, not specifics, and the patterns are on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This run holds the most promise yet, and fits with how the GFS has been evolving generally since it started sniffing a change at high latitudes. The ridging starts in about a week west of Alaska, grows north, cuts off and then rolls southeast and links up with massive western ridging in western Conus. Meanwhile at that time the flow is so supressed out west that Pacific systems will start to cut under that mega ridge, and slide due east toward western Texas where Gulf low will develop. At that time, thanks to the position of all the features and the cold air, and the surface high placement in Canada and the US, this is a classic setup for overrunning snow , ice and cold rain in the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and MidAtlantic. That's how this run looks, and it fits climo. and teleconnections well. Keep in mind models kill blocks too soon usually. This is still not a given yet, the block or its location, and location will mean everything. Its still also possible the cold dumps totally into the west , and may end up doing that later on. But it does appear our cold will begin in about 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed. I don't think you should get backlash. Honestly, why would you trust anything outside of 168 hours? If we see something brewing inside of a week then I get excited. The change in pattern does increase the potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Okie just posted inthe strat thread: The value of 2 will be corrected to 3 next month... doesn't make it any less remarkable though. AO flips hyper-neg going into Feb... could be similar to December 1978 flip IMO... here is my reasoning in three pictures: And yes, that thing in the third pic IS what you think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Question why was the GFS holding back that moisture in southern TX for so long? It just spins from 190 to 300. Strong nw flow here probably. I wouldn't worry about specifics at that time range, the pattern change is what matters most. And it starts pretty quickly, around day 7. We went from watching this 2 weeks ago at 384 op GFS, to this now is only 7 days out. If it occurs, quite a coup for GFS. Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed. Pattern is what matters, not any model showing a snowstorm explicitly yet. That's fine. But keep in mind, it's not JUST the GFS that's showing things happening. You have to look at all of the big picture to get a feel for what might occur. You're right, one model doesn't tell the tale, but start putting the possible -NAO, -AO, strat warming, models picking up on blocking and cold.... it all starts to add up. It's all about patterns right now, not specifics, and the patterns are on the move. bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Okie just posted inthe strat thread: I've been watching the strat warming event too, has the vectors shown change in flux yet? I'm assuming so by now, even though most were pretty against it. Funny how now its almost directly upon us, in the grand scheme of timing. Fits how patterns flip hard too, considering the record breaking +AO event, now we could go the exact polar opposite, Pun intended. The GFS operational today is a beauty if you're into synoptic meteorology like me. I hate to pull any phrases out that are cliche and overused, but....ah nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 12z GFS Ensemble mean looks interesting at hour 204. Look forward to seeing the individual members Definitely think the pattern favors cold for mid to late January. HOwever, +NAO and lack of +PNA still cause me pause and makes me think heart of the cold stays north of here till that changes. With that said even slightly below normal temperatures in mid to late January could make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March. December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate. As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick." I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather). My initial post wasn't meant in a malicious tone (at all). I don't have that in me and if it was taken that way, I apologize. I just feel strongly that the heart of the winter is ahead of us, not behind us. This fall and winter has "felt" more typical to me to this point, even with the big December departures. I wasn't saying it can't snow in December or early January, only that it's much more likely from the second week of January through February. Anyway, I usually enjoy others comments, even if they don't match mine. Yours was no exception - just wanted to play devils advocate. It really is ok to agree to disagree. That's part of what makes this board great. Great to see change still there and continuing to inch toward it Robert. Maybe this change will be as stubborn to leave as the warmth that we have been in for a whie. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Agreed, I made the Widreman comment, but it's all in jest. I have no beef with anyone up here. I'm here to have fun, learn about the weather, and track the storms. I agree to disagree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That's fine. But keep in mind, it's not JUST the GFS that's showing things happening. You have to look at all of the big picture to get a feel for what might occur. You're right, one model doesn't tell the tale, but start putting the possible -NAO, -AO, strat warming, models picking up on blocking and cold.... it all starts to add up. It's all about patterns right now, not specifics, and the patterns are on the move. Pattern is what matters, not any model showing a snowstorm explicitly yet. I agree and I also believe that a pattern change is coming, what I don't know yet is if the pattern that develops actually ends up producing. I'm optimistic about a pattern change and have been for quite some time. But literally anything specific in models at that range is borderline worthless. I like where things are heading but I want to see a threat on the models to get excited, right now I see no real threat anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Robert, here's the latest EP flux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree and I also believe that a pattern change is coming, what I don't know yet is if the pattern that develops actually ends up producing. I'm optimistic about a pattern change and have been for quite some time. But literally anything specific in models at that range is borderline worthless. I like where things are heading but I want to see a threat on the models to get excited, right now I see no real threat anywhere. well I see what you mean, but the pattern supersedes anything really when you look out in time. Its the whole cant see the forest for the trees thing. If we get that patter *if* and its close to GFS at the 5H placements, then the threats will come. Good news is that pattern change has moved up , after we've been watching for a couple weeks now, its coming into view..right on schedule really. But who knows for sure, it may not end up producing, and to say it will produce for most everybody is always going to be a long shot, but for some I think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this a good thing b/c since Dec 28th the winds starting changing direction? Robert, here's the latest EP flux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 And the latest EPV... still not pointing northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Cmc gives us snow with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 well I see what you mean, but the pattern supersedes anything really when you look out in time. Its the whole cant see the forest for the trees thing. If we get that patter *if* and its close to GFS at the 5H placements, then the threats will come. Good news is that pattern change has moved up , after we've been watching for a couple weeks now, its coming into view..right on schedule really. But who knows for sure, it may not end up producing, and to say it will produce for most everybody is always going to be a long shot, but for some I think it will. All good points Robert, I'll defer to you on this one. If you say that the pattern depicted by the GFS will produce threats then that's good enough for me. I can read a model but when it comes to figuring out which patterns will produce for the SE and which ones don't I don't have the slightest clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It also depends on where you live in the south.kinda of getting picking there. But, what works for us in the mtns might not workout for anyone farther south. All good points Robert, I'll defer to you on this one. If you say that the pattern depicted by the GFS will produce threats then that's good enough for me. I can read a model but when it comes to figuring out which patterns will produce for the SE and which ones don't I don't have the slightest clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this a good thing b/c since Dec 28th the winds starting changing direction? What we want to see are the winds moving toward the pole versus winds moving toward the equator. you can see all of that here: http://www.daculaweather.com/stratosphere_zonal_averages_ecmwf.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Cmc gives us snow with the second wave. Sure does... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 UKMet also has a sfc low forming around Brownsville, TX at 144, similar to Canadian with shortwave in New Mexico and trough digging into Kansas. Hard to say if the southern wave will round the bend and produce precip in the SE, but it's a similar look as the Canadian. UKMet also had a similar look last night, as did last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The CMC shows what I thought the euro would show after 168 yesterday. Trends seem to show a piece of the northern stream breaking of in the southwest, if the trough goes negative tilt we could get a screaming north moving low out of the gulf. Would look a lot like one of the storms in 85 that slated the western south from Jackson miss up to Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like it would be rather light (CMC), but maybe we could get this one to severely overperform........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 UKMet also has a sfc low forming around Brownsville, TX at 144, similar to Canadian with shortwave in New Mexico and trough digging into Kansas. Hard to say if the southern wave will round the bend and produce precip in the SE, but it's a similar look as the Canadian. UKMet also had a similar look last night, as did last night's Euro. It is certainly a scenario to watch. It isnt your classic setup for widespread southeast winter storm. One of those scenarios of possible lagging s/w energy that pops a wave on the arctic front. If the trough holds together more it would likely form in the Ohio Valley and we just see a frontal passage. But if the trough can split some (which has been a persistent trend this year), then it would depend where on the front and at what time the wave would form. With no upstream blocking, no 50/50 low, odds certainly dont favor a winter storm, but these have worked out in the past. If I had to place money on it I would favor either a frontal passage or a potential lower Appalachian snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways.. It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed. Fair point, and the pattern change elements have to hold and be located in the proper location for us to get sustained cold air. I will say though that it's not just the op model runs showing these elements....also been seeing them on the gfs and euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The CMC shows what I thought the euro would show after 168 yesterday. Trends seem to show a piece of the northern stream breaking of in the southwest, if the trough goes negative tilt we could get a screaming north moving low out of the gulf. Would look a lot like one of the storms in 85 that slated the western south from Jackson miss up to Nashville. 1985 was a banner year (for both cold and snow) for areas around Memphis to Nashville and points south and west............. I am sure you'd take a redux in a hearbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yep - I was only 4 months old... So no memories for me, just stories from my parents. Lived in Memphis at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A small piece of advice for everyone: Please do not get to excited or depressed and overly discuss any individual run of any model right now when it comes to the 7 day and longer range. Last night's Euro ensemble spread was massive, and just look at what the GFS, Euro and CMC are doing in a week of so with the next trough- all very different. It will get cold here, but beyond that any details are literally impossible to discern, and I for one will not even try until more agreement occurs and I suspect that will be quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A small piece of advice for everyone: Please do not get to excited or depressed and overly discuss any individual run of any model right now when it comes to the 7 day and longer range. Last night's Euro ensemble spread was massive, and just look at what the GFS, Euro and CMC are doing in a week of so with the next trough- all very different. It will get cold here, but beyond that any details are literally impossible to discern, and I for one will not even try until more agreement occurs and I suspect that will be quite a while. I like your voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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