SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II

[LithiaWx]

A couple of points:

1. I acknowledge they have done very well to this point, but they have busted horribly in the past, and will at some point in the future.

2. Long range forecasts, can't be that much better than a coin flip. IMO (60/40 at best)

3. I think there is an above average (maybe much above) chance for them to bust b/c of the rapid changes that we are starting to see regularly.

Weeklies say the coin that has already landed on heads 7 times in a row makes it to 14. I say it's about time to give tails a chance. Who is with me?

All valid points imo, can't disagree with this.

[DaculaWeather]

A couple of points:

1. I acknowledge they have done very well to this point, but they have busted horribly in the past, and will at some point in the future.

2. Long range forecasts, can't be that much better than a coin flip. IMO (60/40 at best)

3. I think there is an above average (maybe much above) chance for them to bust b/c of the rapid changes that we are starting to see regularly.

Weeklies say the coin that has already landed on heads 7 times in a row makes it to 14. I say it's about time to give tails a chance. Who is with me?

+1 - That's what I've been sayin'!

[beanskip]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick."

I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather).

I think the past two winters has made us all a little loopy with regards to what is normal. I know everyone has a different perception, but December isn't a time when we score in the snow department very often. To say we have lost 1/2 our winter already is a little misleading. Most winter events in the southeast Take place from January 5-10 through the month of February. December and March are bonus months that rarely produce IMO.

The absolute HEART of winter is still ahead of us, and by the looks of things it's heading in a good direction (unless you believe the latest Euro Weeklies, which i don't)

[frazdaddy]

i'm all in for tails

[Mr Bob]

A couple of points:

1. I acknowledge they have done very well to this point, but they have busted horribly in the past, and will at some point in the future.

2. Long range forecasts, can't be that much better than a coin flip. IMO (60/40 at best)

3. I think there is an above average (maybe much above) chance for them to bust b/c of the rapid changes that we are starting to see regularly.

Weeklies say the coin that has already landed on heads 7 times in a row makes it to 14. I say it's about time to give tails a chance. Who is with me?

Coin flip is probably not the best way to describe it...they are based in climo which does suggest that our pattern will not change to something along the lines of first half of last winter. Does not mean they won't bust horribly but you can't really use the same analogy as you can with say a Day 10 operational run of the models.

[burgertime]

The 12z GFS is taking away the ULL and has more of a typical rain system. Totals are less as well.

[LithiaWx]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick."

I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather).

Good post, I think there is some truth to a lot of this. Especially the part about if you say anything realistic/negative about winter you get some bad treatment. While the ones with rose colored glasses on get all the praise even though they have been wrong to date about the winter and the warmistas have been dead on for the most part. I feel uncomfortable at times saying anything negative about a model run or a storm and that should never be the case if it is based in reality.

[FoothillsNC]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

When it comes to statistics, you can use them to show about anything. The key thing though is that snowfall at our latitude is all about patterns. We haven't had the pattern yet. I see the mis-use of stats all the time (no jab). But if you look at when we're likely to get our one 6" snowfall , almost in all cases it's from 1) an upper low that takes the right path (Feb and Mar is most likely candidates) and 2) a blocking pattern. Well we have seen the first, and now we're seeing signs of the second. Snow can occur anytime of course from Dec. to Mar., but we get so little snow, the fact that we've already missed half of the "time period" that it possibly can snow really doesn't mean much. Once we get into a pattern that offers the chance at snow here, and once we've used up half of those 4 to 6 weeks without any measurable snow, only then can you really say that we've wasted half of Winter. In my opinion. Remember, its rare to have chances at snow realistically from Dec. to Mar. Last year's pattern of 8 weeks of blocking did in fact produce though, and it just so happens we got hit twice, once in Dec.and once in Jan. Notice how it occurred in the proper pattern?

Pattern recognition and blocking at high latitudes is key. So let's wait and see if we get that blocking , and where.

[chapelhillwx]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick."

I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather).

I remember reading your blog last winter... You issued a RED ALERT for a couple storms, right?

Anyway, saying that December gives us 20% of our snow is kind of an odd point to make, considering the fact that we only really have four snow-producing months. That's less snow than if you divided it evenly over December, January, February, and March. So we've missed out on a relatively lackluster mont for snow in the South.

Surely you must also concede that, around here, it takes one good storm to give us our average. It's not as if flakes sloooooowly fall out of the sky whenever we pop a -NAO; we just need a day or two of favorable conditions. We have so far used up one lackluster winter month and first five days of January The fact that we have about eight weeks left in which to do this, combined with rumblings of a pattern change in the medium to long range, leaves me very optimistic.

[beanskip]

Thanks for the response and I understand what you are saying. Still, though, if you have an X-week window where having the right pattern can lead to snow and you are halfway through X and haven't had the right pattern, it seems to me that, statisically, you are less likely to see snow. That is, even if we approach it from a "pattern" standpoint, instead of looking at snowfall statistics, the fact that we haven't had the right pattern and still only have a hope of the right pattern is cause for concern.

One good snow, however, and we won't have to waste our time with semantical discussions and Widre comparisons.

When it comes to statistics, you can use them to show about anything. The key thing though is that snowfall at our latitude is all about patterns. We haven't had the pattern yet. I see the mis-use of stats all the time (no jab). But if you look at when we're likely to get our one 6" snowfall , almost in all cases it's from 1) an upper low that takes the right path (Feb and Mar is most likely candidates) and 2) a blocking pattern. Well we have seen the first, and now we're seeing signs of the second. Snow can occur anytime of course from Dec. to Mar., but we get so little snow, the fact that we've already missed half of the "time period" that it possibly can snow really doesn't mean much. Once we get into a pattern that offers the chance at snow here, and once we've used up half of those 4 to 6 weeks without any measurable snow, only then can you really say that we've wasted half of Winter. In my opinion. Remember, its rare to have chances at snow realistically from Dec. to Mar. Last year's pattern of 8 weeks of blocking did in fact produce though, and it just so happens we got hit twice, once in Dec.and once in Jan. Notice how it occurred in the proper pattern?

Pattern recognition and blocking at high latitudes is key. So let's wait and see if we get that blocking , and where.

[Mr Bob]

Once we get into a pattern that offers the chance at snow here, and once we've used up half of those 4 to 6 weeks without any measurable snow, only then can you really say that we've wasted half of Winter. In my opinion. Remember, its rare to have chances at snow realistically from Dec. to Mar. Last year's pattern of 8 weeks of blocking did in fact produce though, and it just so happens we got hit twice, once in Dec.and once in Jan. Notice how it occurred in the proper pattern?

Excellent...."wasted half of winter" is much more apropos if say you live on the Tug Hill Plateau...nothing is really wasted down here until we get into March...Hard to say you have wasted your one shot until the season is over.

[strongwxnc]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick."

I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather).

I have zero to offer Skip. I have also been around just about as long as you have.

It all depends on the way a person makes comments as to how the board in general will receive it.

Thanks for posting your findings!

[rduwx]

Actually, December and March (and November) account for much more than just bonus months which "rarely" produce snow. Using data (gasp -- hate to interrupt this board's ever-increasing hope-fest with some actual data) on the NWS GSP climate page reveals that 37 percent of all measured snowfall in GSP occured in November/December/March.

December alone accounts for almost 1/5 of all winter snow. January accounts for a whopping 36 percent. Since almost all agree that at least half of our biggest snow-producing month will be gone without accumulating snow (and probably more than half), I'd say the comment that winter is about half over is actually very close to accurate.

As a side note, nobody is wishing for snow more than I -- and I have been through many winter ups and down on this board, Eastern and even the old Wright Weather board -- but I increasingly find this board to be filled with more hope than reality. And anyone who dares to infuse something other than the rosiest outlook is immediately (and immaturely) tabbed as "Widre" or "Brick."

I think this is not a healthy development for this board and I fear it will lead to decreasing participation among those who actually have something to offer (although I certainly don't count myself as having something to offer other than a love of winter weather).

Good post beanskip...It's funny to think back to the WWBB days and even the early eastern days. Back then if you were going to have an opinion on something, you better have some science to back it up. If you didn't they were going to chew you up and spit you out. I'm all good w/ a positive outlook as long as they have solid reasoning. When I started on weather boards years ago, all I cared about was if it was going to snow. I quickly learned there is a science end to it and found I really enjoyed it. Now I'll be the first to admit that I'm not even close to knowing half of the things I need to know but learning more every year. I just think there are some of us old school people around that aren't used to all the positive attitudes because it didn't used to be that way.

[beanskip]

Yes, I issued a Red Alert on my blog, what's your point?

The only point I was making on December/March is that it is more than "rare" -- as someone claimed -- to have snow in those months. They make up more than a third of total seasonal snowfall in GSP.

I have no problem with your optimism. I simply don't share it. Why is that so hard for people on this board to accept?

I remember reading your blog last winter... You issued a RED ALERT for a couple storms, right?

Anyway, saying that December gives us 20% of our snow is kind of an odd point to make, considering the fact that we only really have four snow-producing months. That's less snow than if you divided it evenly over December, January, February, and March. So we've missed out on a relatively lackluster mont for snow in the South.

Surely you must also concede that, around here, it takes one good storm to give us our average. It's not as if flakes sloooooowly fall out of the sky whenever we pop a -NAO; we just need a day or two of favorable conditions. We have so far used up one lackluster winter month and first five days of January The fact that we have about eight weeks left in which to do this, combined with rumblings of a pattern change in the medium to long range, leaves me very optimistic.

[buckeyefan1]

Excellent...."wasted half of winter" is much more apropos if say you live on the Tug Hill Plateau...nothing is really wasted down here until we get into March...Hard to say you have wasted your one shot until the season is over.

Exactly...We live in the south people, snow is not mandatory from November to March and if that is your thinking you need to reevaluate your thought process

[Marion_NC_WX]

12z GFS takes an interesting twist with the mid-week storm...maybe a greater severe weather threat for Mississippi, Alabama and into the TN Valley?

Next weekend looking mighty cold... -14 850's coming into the Apps at 168.

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks for the response and I understand what you are saying. Still, though, if you have an X-week window where having the right pattern can lead to snow and you are halfway through X and haven't had the right pattern, it seems to me that, statisically, you are less likely to see snow. That is, even if we approach it from a "pattern" standpoint, instead of looking at snowfall statistics, the fact that we haven't had the right pattern and still only have a hope of the right pattern is cause for concern.

One good snow, however, and we won't have to waste our time with semantical discussions and Widre comparisons.

No comparisons from me about Widre...i'm not that cruel to anybody. And here comes the cold at 144 hour. And blocking starting in west Alaska and northern Alaska at 168.

[beanskip]

Thanks for that. Yes, I remember when model runs would come out I'd go straight for the surface maps, not really even knowing how to read the upper level stuff. Still don't know much about those, but with help from the pros I'm making a dent. Good times ....

Good post beanskip...It's funny to think back to the WWBB days and even the early eastern days. Back then if you were going to have an opinion on something, you better have some science to back it up. If you didn't they were going to chew you up and spit you out. I'm all good w/ a positive outlook as long as they have solid reasoning. When I started on weather boards years ago, all I cared about was if it was going to snow. I quickly learned there is a science end to it and found I really enjoyed it. Now I'll be the first to admit that I'm not even close to knowing half of the things I need to know but learning more every year. I just think there are some of us old school people around that aren't used to all the positive attitudes because it didn't used to be that way.

[tnweathernut]

Coin flip is probably not the best way to describe it...they are based in climo which does suggest that our pattern will not change to something along the lines of first half of last winter. Does not mean they won't bust horribly but you can't really use the same analogy as you can with say a Day 10 operational run of the models.

I see your point. My analogy was only meant to convey that change is likely coming.

[Brick Tamland]

I think people are just waiting for the true pattern change and for it to really feel like winter. We've had a couple shots of cold air that lasted a couple of days, but that's it. It's been mostly warmer than normal. I think some are afraid it seems it is taking longer for the pattern to change, and if it takes too long our shots at snow will be gone. Last year we had a great pattern for most of winter, and we only had three snows out of it around here, and two of those were in December. Then again, it could only take one huge storm to make snow lovers happy.

[El Kabong]

I can certainly see both sides of the discussion. It's easy to think that the more of January that we lose without a winter storm, the less likely it will be that we see one. The flip side of that argument is that all it takes is one day or night with the right conditions and it can produce or exceed your seasonal total. In fact, two of the biggest storms I experienced when I lived in Rome, GA occured in March and April (March 1993 - 18" and April 1987 - 6"). I'm now in central Georgia and February of 1973 produced one of the biggest storms on record in these parts. There's still plenty of time for the right ingredients to come together. Let's see if they do.

[FoothillsNC]

whoa boy. Split flow. The Block northslope of Alaska, deep cold pushing out of central Canad and nw flow in the East, witha clipper around day 10 and a new system in split flow coming into southern California, with arctic high ridging a long way out of Northwest Canada to the Ohio Valley. Exciting run and lots of potential with this. The key is the Block that starts around days 7 and 8 , we're inching toward a great pattern i think.

[FoothillsNC]

Great pattern coming up, or interesting. The cold is pressing south , all the way from Canada, and once we turn cold in a week, we don't warm much at all, and keep cold coming in with the highs placed to our north and northwest. Best news to me is the undercutting going on in southern California. Classic setup. Verbatim, major NC snowstorm, not quite cold enough further south, but wintry looking from 240 through the end of the run. The pattern looks good to me. Only other way to look better is to build a Greenland block, which may end up being too supressed..but as it is, some folks are going to comine Cold+ Moisture.

[Marion_NC_WX]

We still got our big teaser at the end of the model run...

[FoothillsNC]

By 384 the flow has eased and more zonal, but by then we've had 2 good systems or threats to work with. It's impossible to say where the best chance of getting any snow is yet , except to say it will be on the northern edge of precip fields, and that looks supressed enough to place DFW to ATL to RDU in the watching mode.

[burgertime]

lol @348 we have 30 inches of snow!

[burgertime]

By 384 the flow has eased and more zonal, but by then we've had 2 good systems or threats to work with. It's impossible to say where the best chance of getting any snow is yet , except to say it will be on the northern edge of precip fields, and that looks supressed enough to place DFW to ATL to RDU in the watching mode.

Question why was the GFS holding back that moisture in southern TX for so long? It just spins from 190 to 300.

[burgertime]

Sorry for MBY that would be like 2 inches of ice verbatim at 348

[Marion_NC_WX]

Just some thoughts on what looks like a definite pattern change...I think once our "game-changer" passes off the East Coast mid week, the models will really begin to get a better grip on the events that could happen around the 16-20th timeframe.

[LithiaWx]

Another situation where I'd love to say something but honestly I'm fearful for the backlash I might receive for saying it. But here it goes anyways..

It's the long, long range OP GFS guys, we can't really put much stock into this at all. Sure it's fun to talk about but this should be taken with plenty of salt. Honestly until we get something in the 180ish range color me unimpressed.