MADDOGG Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 seems when we do get the cold the mositure that is left is around the gulf costal area.. i could see this pan out, always in the past when snow comes around areas to our north get it, or areas to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appstate00 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This guy (or his interpretation of computer models) doesn't seem to think it will get cold. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-computer-model-forecast-update-1/59941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This guy (or his interpretation of computer models) doesn't seem to think it will get cold. http://www.accuweath...-update-1/59941 Euro Weeklies that Mr. Bob was talking about.... not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This guy (or his interpretation of computer models) doesn't seem to think it will get cold. http://www.accuweath...-update-1/59941 It is what the Euro weeklies are showing....not that he doesn't think it will get cold Besides...it's accuweather and I don't believe they know the US has weather below 40s QUOTE...... The model has clearly made some changes to its forecast since last week, but I am still far from sold with what it is showing for the pattern through the end of the month right now. There are a lot of changes going on in the stratosphere right now and it may take another week before several of these models have a good handle on what is actually going to happen over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like the changes the GFS forecast 2 weeks ago are coming to fruition, but the details are still sketchy and the actual weather impacts could go a lot of ways. The 00z and 06z GFS and last ECMWF were off to a good start though that has strong signals for part of the South and Mid Atlantic to combine the best of the cold and the best of moisture. If this type of 5h pattern evolves, we're golden. It's still too far out to trust exactly, but anytime you get ridging close to the pole via Alaska, east Siberia or Greenland, that always displaces the cold and dumps it south. It's just how meteorology works. If we can keep western or Southwest ridging and the 50/50 type vortex displaced so far south near eastern Canada, the cold will continue to roll south bound into the plains and eastern states, meanwhile strong s/w (of which there is no shortage this year) would be forced to take the low road in a supressed flow. Translation: Southeast Winter Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 yea i seen the story accu had up south the warm holds becasue of the ridge thur FEB.. has the storm track from tx up thru virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like the changes the GFS forecast 2 weeks ago are coming to fruition, but the details are still sketchy and the actual weather impacts could go a lot of ways. The 00z and 06z GFS and last ECMWF were off to a good start though that has strong signals for part of the South and Mid Atlantic to combine the best of the cold and the best of moisture. If this type of 5h pattern evolves, we're golden. It's still too far out to trust exactly, but anytime you get ridging close to the pole via Alaska, east Siberia or Greenland, that always displaces the cold and dumps it south. It's just how meteorology works. If we can keep western or Southwest ridging and the 50/50 type vortex displaced so far south near eastern Canada, the cold will continue to roll south bound into the plains and eastern states, meanwhile strong s/w (of which there is no shortage this year) would be forced to take the low road in a supressed flow. Translation: Southeast Winter Storms. Thanks Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It is not a specific point forecast as the grading is with operational models. Anecdotally speaking, they do seem to do fairly well with the overall pattern for our purposes... The Ensembles from last night as Cheez noted have a big spread but the means show a similar pattern as all winter in the 11-15 day... Besides...it might be good for everyone for me to make a bold statement so I can eat my words in a week or two...which I will happily do for the good of everyone if I have prompted a pattern reversal...I have been beaten and humbled by the weather in so many ways over the years that it would not hurt so bad to take another one for Team Winter! Mr. Bob, Have you resolved the snowboard issue? I assume you haven't since we still haven't gotten snow and the weeklies are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Imo we all are just going to have to be patient and see what happens. A lot of the Mets that I respect and have for many years are on both sides of the fence. Some are thinking that we will get some cold shots but for the most part will be in a milder pattern. Then there are others that think we are in a full blown pattern change and working towards a -NAO and will be below average the remainder of winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As my sig says "Only the spoon knows what is stirring in the pot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like the changes the GFS forecast 2 weeks ago are coming to fruition, but the details are still sketchy and the actual weather impacts could go a lot of ways. The 00z and 06z GFS and last ECMWF were off to a good start though that has strong signals for part of the South and Mid Atlantic to combine the best of the cold and the best of moisture. If this type of 5h pattern evolves, we're golden. It's still too far out to trust exactly, but anytime you get ridging close to the pole via Alaska, east Siberia or Greenland, that always displaces the cold and dumps it south. It's just how meteorology works. If we can keep western or Southwest ridging and the 50/50 type vortex displaced so far south near eastern Canada, the cold will continue to roll south bound into the plains and eastern states, meanwhile strong s/w (of which there is no shortage this year) would be forced to take the low road in a supressed flow. Translation: Southeast Winter Storms. Thanks Robert! Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Imo we all are just going to have to be patient and see what happens. A lot of the Mets that I respect and have for many years are on both sides of the fence. Some are thinking that we will get some cold shots but for the most part will be in a milder pattern. Then there are others that think we are in a full blown pattern change and working towards a -NAO and will be below average the remainder of winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As my sig says "Only the spoon knows what is stirring in the pot." But I'm hearing more and more people leaning toward the cold side now. It started about a week ago and it seems to be a ground swell of people starting to see the changes with the hints in the models and other indices. Mother Nature likes a balance, it's what keeps things working. Too much of one extreme will eventually lead to the opposite extreme to keep things on an even keel. I believe we need to hold on to our hats for some pretty exciting changes coming down the pike. How scientific is that now! That's what 56 years of winter gets you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Imo we all are just going to have to be patient and see what happens. A lot of the Mets that I respect and have for many years are on both sides of the fence. Some are thinking that we will get some cold shots but for the most part will be in a milder pattern. Then there are others that think we are in a full blown pattern change and working towards a -NAO and will be below average the remainder of winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As my sig says "Only the spoon knows what is stirring in the pot." My fear is the NAO and AO will go negative just in time to give us a cold and rainy April . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Needless to say, the odds of this verifying close to what is shown are exceedingly tiny. This shows over 4" at Savannah, which would make it the largest official snow there since the 1830's! I couldn't agree more! The odds are indeed slim, as this map depiction will move north giving me my 4 inches of sleet, and you still get a more reasonable 1 inch of something frozen, lol. I'm just happy to see the gulf showing activity on the recent maps. If the storms in the gulf get to stay then southerners get to play. Follow the water! It will get cold, it's winter, it gets cold in winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think a cautious, measured approach is very wise. EVEN IF we see a colder pattern, that is no guarantee of snow. And we have lost about half of our winter season already and have only the HOPE that what SOME models are showing in the 10 to 15-day range will pan out. Hardly the foundation for a confident prediction. I think the past two winters has made us all a little loopy with regards to what is normal. I know everyone has a different perception, but December isn't a time when we score in the snow department very often. To say we have lost 1/2 our winter already is a little misleading. Most winter events in the southeast Take place from January 5-10 through the month of February. December and March are bonus months that rarely produce IMO. The absolute HEART of winter is still ahead of us, and by the looks of things it's heading in a good direction (unless you believe the latest Euro Weeklies, which i don't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Imo we all are just going to have to be patient and see what happens. A lot of the Mets that I respect and have for many years are on both sides of the fence. Some are thinking that we will get some cold shots but for the most part will be in a milder pattern. Then there are others that think we are in a full blown pattern change and working towards a -NAO and will be below average the remainder of winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see. As my sig says "Only the spoon knows what is stirring in the pot." It seems there are two completely different sides. It's driving me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 My fear is the NAO and AO will go negative just in time to give us a cold and rainy April . This is my big fear as it will squash the severe season thus poop on my (our) chasing chances.....based on how the winter has gone so far this is the likely outcome Mar-May will be dominated by cloudy drizzly days with temps stuck at 45 for days on end..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 yea i seen the story accu had up south the warm holds becasue of the ridge thur FEB.. has the storm track from tx up thru virginia Well I am sure we will have periods where the SE ridge is flexing when the PNA goes negative, but we should (hopefully) have periods when the PV in Canada drops far enough south and the PNA spikes thus booting out the ridge. Or if gosh darn NAO would go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 But I'm hearing more and more people leaning toward the cold side now. It started about a week ago and it seems to be a ground swell of people starting to see the changes with the hints in the models and other indices. Mother Nature likes a balance, it's what keeps things working. Too much of one extreme will eventually lead to the opposite extreme to keep things on an even keel. I believe we need to hold on to our hats for some pretty exciting changes coming down the pike. How scientific is that now! That's what 56 years of winter gets you! We discussed this briefly yesterday after griteater made a post about how long we've had a +AO and +NAO. After he made that post I stated that just tells me it's time to go negative. I agree w/ you, mother nature likes a balance but to be honest I would of never thought it would have stayed + for as long as it has. My gut is telling me we are switching to a colder pattern for us and winter is about to get started but I'm just not ready to go all in yet. I guess you could say I'm on the fence also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the past two winters has made us all a little loopy with regards to what is normal. I know everyone has a different perception, but December isn't a time when we score in the snow department very often. To say we have lost 1/2 our winter already is a little misleading. Most winter events in the southeast Take place from January 5-10 through the month of February. December and March are bonus months that rarely produce IMO. The absolute HEART of winter is still ahead of us, and by the looks of things it's heading in a good direction (unless you believe the latest Euro Weeklies, which i don't) I agree with this post almost totally. The only thing I would say is I'm not as quick as you to dismiss the Euro Weeklies considering how well they have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It seems there are two completely different sides. It's driving me crazy. haha, and you us Brick, lol! You would make a great politician, leaning one way from what the base tells ya and going back the other way when the masses so not so fast. I know its far out and with that in mind things will change, so take a breath (or two) and dont stake your hopes in one camp or the other till we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 My fear is the NAO and AO will go negative just in time to give us a cold and rainy April . That would be the worst. The rainy part would be ok, especially for those in a drought right now, but I hate a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 But I'm hearing more and more people leaning toward the cold side now. It started about a week ago and it seems to be a ground swell of people starting to see the changes with the hints in the models and other indices. Mother Nature likes a balance, it's what keeps things working. Too much of one extreme will eventually lead to the opposite extreme to keep things on an even keel. I believe we need to hold on to our hats for some pretty exciting changes coming down the pike. How scientific is that now! That's what 56 years of winter gets you! It's funny, we are worried about the SE ridge, the NE folks are worried there won't be a SE ridge, last thing they will want to see is suppression. I feel kind of bad for them, it's not abnormal for us to have snowless winters but they got to be going crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Mr. Bob, Have you resolved the snowboard issue? I assume you haven't since we still haven't gotten snow and the weeklies are warm. She is taking it up to Gatlinburg this weekend...we are not sure why...If she goes down a grassy hill and it snaps, perhaps that will snap the AO too??? One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Anyone think there's a chance of freezing rain or sleet in the cad favored regions on Sunday night/Monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Anyone think there's a chance of freezing rain or sleet in the cad favored regions on Sunday night/Monday morning? IMO I dont think there is any chance of frozen precip in any form. Way to warm. I am no professional though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the past two winters has made us all a little loopy with regards to what is normal. I know everyone has a different perception, but December isn't a time when we score in the snow department very often. To say we have lost 1/2 our winter already is a little misleading. Most winter events in the southeast Take place from January 5-10 through the month of February. December and March are bonus months that rarely produce IMO. The absolute HEART of winter is still ahead of us This may be the best post (from the non-Mets) and most in touch with reality that I have seen on this forum in two weeks. The last two winters have spoiled a lot of people and for some reason we expected a big snow again this year in December. Meanwhile climo screams mid to late January as the prime time for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think the past two winters has made us all a little loopy with regards to what is normal. I know everyone has a different perception, but December isn't a time when we score in the snow department very often. To say we have lost 1/2 our winter already is a little misleading. Most winter events in the southeast Take place from January 5-10 through the month of February. December and March are bonus months that rarely produce IMO. The absolute HEART of winter is still ahead of us, and by the looks of things it's heading in a good direction (unless you believe the latest Euro Weeklies, which i don't) Good post and I agree. Normally, December and March aren't for most folks outside the mountains. This Winter has had an odd pattern, first with all the cutoffs, and the strong +AO. But like most strong extreme patterns, there will be a flip. The key might be the blocking that sets up. But it's impossible yet to nail it down, but it's looking likely it will occur. Placement means everything though. I view it as a pretty good sign to have it showing up about now, as opposed very early, because of the 4 week window that usually results from good blocking. That timing puts us in the perfect window of Winter, in my opinion. Late January to early March could be filled with snow and ice chances if it occurs. It's funny, we are worried about the SE ridge, the NE folks are worried there won't be a SE ridge, last thing they will want to see is suppression. I feel kind of bad for them, it's not abnormal for us to have snowless winters but they got to be going crazy. Reminds me of last Winter when Athens, GA got about as much snow as the MidAtlantic. A really supressed flow. I'm sure they will rack up eventually though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Allan Huffman says next weekend could have potential for something other than rain. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/mild-and-unsettled-weather-ahead-and-then-colder-pattern-sets-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I agree with this post almost totally. The only thing I would say is I'm not as quick as you to dismiss the Euro Weeklies considering how well they have done. A couple of points: 1. I acknowledge they have done very well to this point, but they have busted horribly in the past, and will at some point in the future. 2. Long range forecasts, can't be that much better than a coin flip. IMO (60/40 at best) 3. I think there is an above average (maybe much above) chance for them to bust b/c of the rapid changes that we are starting to see regularly. Weeklies say the coin that has already landed on heads 7 times in a row makes it to 14. I say it's about time to give tails a chance. Who is with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 A couple of points: 1. I acknowledge they have done very well to this point, but they have busted horribly in the past, and will at some point in the future. 2. Long range forecasts, can't be that much better than a coin flip. IMO (60/40 at best) 3. I think there is an above average (maybe much above) chance for them to bust b/c of the rapid changes that we are starting to see regularly. Weeklies say the coin that has already landed on heads 7 times in a row makes it to 14. I say it's about time to give tails a chance. Who is with me? I always like giving tail a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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