burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This only goes to 300 hours but you'll see the cold... and someone in the southeast would probably be getting some snow. http://www.daculawea...06z_2m_temp.php That run has snow for most in the SE specifically GA, SC and the eastern sections of NC at the end of it's run. Winners of this run would be just south of Macon and points right around FAY in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Newbie here and trying to learn all the different maps you all use. I'm assuming by temp anomalies that these are variations from the norm? So on this map, the Carolinas are -18 to -22 degrees colder than norm? Crazy cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On a side note, I had an interesting conversation Monday afternoon with a retired Avery County Lineman who gave me all of the details about the January 1986 severe cold outbreak that drove temperatures in the NC High Country down to -36 degrees F in the mountains. He said there was no significant upslope snow with the event. Told me how they could toss a soft drink bottle contents in the air and it would freeze immediately mid air. They were out working that night trying to keep power up and he got significant frostbite on his face. He said his face peeled just as if it was a bad sunburn. He was a walking database of knowledge on significant Avery County Snow Storms, Ice Storms and winter weather events. He experienced them all outside working in the conditions. Definitely is a tough mountain guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That is correct. Look at this cold... nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just for giggles this is the snowfall map for 384...of course giant freaking barge full of salt on this one...and for those who say, "big deal" it's more about the look then what the model actually showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Newbie here and trying to learn all the different maps you all use. I'm assuming by temp anomalies that these are variations from the norm? So on this map, the Carolinas are -18 to -22 degrees colder than norm? Here you go enjoy! What is a temperature anomaly? The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That run has snow for most in the SE specifically GA, SC and the eastern sections of NC at the end of it's run. Winners of this run would be just south of Macon and points right around FAY in NC. Needless to say, the odds of this verifying close to what is shown are exceedingly tiny. This shows over 4" at Savannah, which would make it the largest official snow there since the 1830's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Needless to say, the odds of this verifying close to what is shown are exceedingly tiny. This shows over 4" at Savannah, which would make it the largest official snow there since the 1830's! You kept saying that last winter and yet points south of me that weren't supposed to get it got it. This one's a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Needless to say, the odds of this verifying close to what is shown are exceedingly tiny. This shows over 4" at Savannah, which would make it the largest official snow there since the 1830's! it's time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Hush.... you'll get the cliff people on the ledge. But Mr. Bob... do you REALLY believe a model 4 weeks out? I mean the Euro verification score drops from a .979 at 3 days to a .761 at 7, it HAS to be MUCH lower at 30 days. My guess is flipping a coin will give you at least as good of a result. You're not Wildreman are you? It is not a specific point forecast as the grading is with operational models. Anecdotally speaking, they do seem to do fairly well with the overall pattern for our purposes... The Ensembles from last night as Cheez noted have a big spread but the means show a similar pattern as all winter in the 11-15 day... Besides...it might be good for everyone for me to make a bold statement so I can eat my words in a week or two...which I will happily do for the good of everyone if I have prompted a pattern reversal...I have been beaten and humbled by the weather in so many ways over the years that it would not hurt so bad to take another one for Team Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just for giggles this is the snowfall map for 384...of course giant freaking barge full of salt on this one...and for those who say, "big deal" it's more about the look then what the model actually showed. At least it's something! That's a start. And as long as Matthew East says the second half of Januray looks colder and stormier, I'll believe and have hope for snow. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2012/01/great-weather-today.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Needless to say, the odds of this verifying close to what is shown are exceedingly tiny. This shows over 4" at Savannah, which would make it the largest official snow there since the 1830's! Well, we've had the biggest outbreak of tornados ever in 2011, and even an earthquake in VA. Anything is possible these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dr. Ryan Maue's site shows the GFS anomalies clearly on this graphic loop. It shows you how the GFS depiction of possible severe cold around January 20th will develop. http://policlimate.c...a_plan_ext.html Graphic courtesy of Ryan Maue with another huge shot of cold air to follow. Notice how it builds in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the possible severe weather event for portions of the southeast next week. There will be plenty of moisture to work with and enough instability to pop a few thunderstorms. Granted, this looks like a Gulf Coast event but still looking like an interesting set-up as the ULL moves through the Deep South. It's not your classic severe weather set-up but neither was December 22 when GA had 6 tornadoes.... Something to watch over the next few days! Also more likely than the fantasy cold you guys keep talking about hahaha! I kid, I kid. http://davidwarrenre...-storms-on.html And you know what they say about thunderstorms in the winter. It'll be interesting to see what happens 10 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 True, most winters have a flip in there. Sometimes the timing coincides with seasons, sometimes not. But when it flips, its usually a hard flip. It would fit the past several years pattern to be a hard flip too. There's never any guarantees in Winter, but I've looked at many from front to end, and quite a few that had extremes, also had both ends of the extreme, esp. in a Nina. True, and 2011 was a year full of extreme weather. Maybe the same is continuing into 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 My first fantasy snow of the year at hr 336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like something might be brewing around 1/20. And that is 9 to 10 days after we could have some thunderstorms next week. Looks like the old wives' tale might hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 RAH long term discussion from last night. They are now talking about a pattern change. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY... A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS IN THE OFFING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY. BEFORE THAT CHANGE... WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH THE EJECTION OF A MID-UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AROUND MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE CONTINUED VARIETY OF TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK SOLUTIONS FROM THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS... WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION CENTERED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. IT WILL BE MILDER AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... TUE. THEREFORE... PTYPE PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 32. REGARDLESS... THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEEK OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS... FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD THE WAY TO THE PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EASTERN U.S. IT IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRECEDE THIS COLD SPELL. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLDER TEMPS FOR NC IS STILL UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK... BUT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE... AND REMAIN THERE NEXT WEEK. THE NAO IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEUTRAL THEN POSSIBLY INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES... NEW ENGLAND... AND POSSIBLY DEEP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Newbie here and trying to learn all the different maps you all use. I'm assuming by temp anomalies that these are variations from the norm? So on this map, the Carolinas are -18 to -22 degrees colder than norm? Here you go enjoy! What is a temperature anomaly? The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. http://www.ncdc.noaa...q/anomalies.php One other thing, those anomalies are at 850mb or roughly 5,000 ft above the surface....but as others have mentioned, the sfc temps were also coming in 20+ degrees below normal for that model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 RAH long term discussion from last night. They are now talking about a pattern change. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY... A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS IN THE OFFING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY. BEFORE THAT CHANGE... WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH THE EJECTION OF A MID-UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AROUND MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE CONTINUED VARIETY OF TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK SOLUTIONS FROM THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS... WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION CENTERED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. IT WILL BE MILDER AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... TUE. THEREFORE... PTYPE PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 32. REGARDLESS... THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEEK OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS... FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD THE WAY TO THE PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EASTERN U.S. IT IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRECEDE THIS COLD SPELL. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLDER TEMPS FOR NC IS STILL UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK... BUT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE... AND REMAIN THERE NEXT WEEK. THE NAO IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEUTRAL THEN POSSIBLY INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES... NEW ENGLAND... AND POSSIBLY DEEP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN NEXT WEEK. Sounds great if we can get some storms to come with the cold and have potential for snow! Changes, they are ah comin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Hmmm....RAH must have long term NAO forecast models that show this, great seeing them say this. "THE NAO IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEUTRAL THEN POSSIBLY INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY." RAH long term discussion from last night. They are now talking about a pattern change. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY... A PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS IN THE OFFING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY. BEFORE THAT CHANGE... WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH THE EJECTION OF A MID-UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AROUND MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE CONTINUED VARIETY OF TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK SOLUTIONS FROM THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS... WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION CENTERED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. IT WILL BE MILDER AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... TUE. THEREFORE... PTYPE PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 32. REGARDLESS... THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEEK OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS... FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD THE WAY TO THE PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EASTERN U.S. IT IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRECEDE THIS COLD SPELL. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLDER TEMPS FOR NC IS STILL UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK... BUT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE... AND REMAIN THERE NEXT WEEK. THE NAO IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEUTRAL THEN POSSIBLY INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES... NEW ENGLAND... AND POSSIBLY DEEP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 And you know what they say about thunderstorms in the winter. It'll be interesting to see what happens 10 days later. That held true for us. We had thunder on the the 22nd of December and sure enough 10 days later we picked up a half inch overnight into Tuesday (1/2 - 1/3/12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 TWC just put rain/snow in forecast for next Sunday.. In Dawsonville ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Good runs of the op and ens models last night for getting cold air down into the states in the mid and extended range. Removal of the Alaska low, new low developing in far east Asia, and ridge building to the north of Alaska. The GFS 06z 850mb temperature departures are rather expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Possibly. I didn't take into account any potential issue that may be due to flash. I'm thinking that around the time that I updated Java the issue with Allan's site began a day later so it may be the culprit behind this with wunderground's model data. I have never used Chrome so I will see if it behaves properly for me. Thanks. EDIT: Just downloaded Google Chrome. Works perfectly on there. Gaston, chrome has always worked perfectly for me and a lot of the issues should cease using this browser. You should really like it once you get used to the features. Also with the Java updates, you should go through and delete past versions. Too many times with numerous versions on your system, your computer will be confused as to which version to follow. :Back on topic: The map from CMC does look a little promising. The low does increase in size(from 2contours to 3contours) from run to run. Still it only appears that those NW of it will receive any hope, the rest of us look to get a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like a map that JB would have drawn. I don't subscribe to him, but has he taken over the weather models lately after flopping like a fish out of water and locking onto cold? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 There seems to be something special about snow storms in this area from 1/20 to the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 240 Euro is very interesting for perhaps some extreme cold in the east in the 10-15 day period, cross-polar flow with a building Alaska ridge. NAO looks positive but this has that arctic outbreak look, at least for someone. We shall see if the ensembles agree, however. Looks like it had a clipper too that would bring snow showers to a good chunk of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 There seems to be something special about snow storms in this area from 1/20 to the end of the month. The fact that its the heart of winter maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think a cautious, measured approach is very wise. EVEN IF we see a colder pattern, that is no guarantee of snow. And we have lost about half of our winter season already and have only the HOPE that what SOME models are showing in the 10 to 15-day range will pan out. Hardly the foundation for a confident prediction. It is not a specific point forecast as the grading is with operational models. Anecdotally speaking, they do seem to do fairly well with the overall pattern for our purposes... The Ensembles from last night as Cheez noted have a big spread but the means show a similar pattern as all winter in the 11-15 day... Besides...it might be good for everyone for me to make a bold statement so I can eat my words in a week or two...which I will happily do for the good of everyone if I have prompted a pattern reversal...I have been beaten and humbled by the weather in so many ways over the years that it would not hurt so bad to take another one for Team Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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