Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 6:50 AM, JoMo said: You can get 3-6 hour maps out to 180 for the Euro on Wunderground. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Can't seem to get that load properly for me tonight (using Opera). It shows the weather station icons and current radar but will not change to the Euro images for me when I disable the other two options. Does the same on my other two browsers (Mozilla and Explorer). I was having issues with Allan's site earlier this week by seeing certain models not update themselves even though others could see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 SO the cmc might have winter weather with that strong low in ga? Thats how it looks? Correct me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Good news with this run of the Euro. After that interesting bit at 192, it looks like it has returned to a colder solution for the last two frames instead of eradicating the air mass. Just wished it had not pushed that system too far south. Would have made for a nice solution but goes to show that you don't want too much cold when a pattern brings such. Obviously way out there around 10 days but the model madness continues. Another day, another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looking at the other maps (thanks JoMo) the Euro looks to be a close call for some folks with the system than Gaston mentioned. Something to watch. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I like that the Ull is trending south, and the one after too. Don't want to see any more valley runners. I'll take my chances with suppressed at this range. Better chances for it to come back up into some cold air T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 6:57 AM, Gastonwxman said: Can't seem to get that load properly for me tonight (using Opera). It shows the weather station icons and current radar but will not change to the Euro images for me when I disable the other two options. Does the same on my other two browsers (Mozilla and Explorer). I was having issues with Allan's site earlier this week by seeing certain models not update themselves even though others could see them. Works fine on Chrome for me. It may use flash or have flash elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 6:04 AM, MariettaWx said: That was last nights run you linked. This is tonight's run and it looks pretty similar. Honestly, the CMC from tonight is a crap run for South Carolina snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The 240 Euro is very interesting for perhaps some extreme cold in the east in the 10-15 day period, cross-polar flow with a building Alaska ridge. NAO looks positive but this has that arctic outbreak look, at least for someone. We shall see if the ensembles agree, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 7:08 AM, Cheeznado said: The 240 Euro is very interesting for perhaps some extreme cold in the east in the 10-15 day period, cross-polar flow with a building Alaska ridge. NAO looks positive but this has that arctic outbreak look, at least for someone. We shall see if the ensembles agree, however. Ridging it up North of Alaska. The 240 GFS for comparison. Looks like the H and L have swapped places in the west and the east between the 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 7:05 AM, JoMo said: Works fine on Chrome for me. It may use flash or have flash elements. Possibly. I didn't take into account any potential issue that may be due to flash. I'm thinking that around the time that I updated Java the issue with Allan's site began a day later so it may be the culprit behind this with wunderground's model data. I have never used Chrome so I will see if it behaves properly for me. Thanks. EDIT: Just downloaded Google Chrome. Works perfectly on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 7:06 AM, Shawn said: Honestly, the CMC from tonight is a monster run for South Carolina. Although layer temps could be an issue.. wow.. almost the whole state. For snow? Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 7:17 AM, Cheeznado said: For snow? Not really. the bulk precip is gone before it could have a chance to turnover sadly. i hate these low res maps. waiting for meteocenter. edit: between 132 & 144, nothing wintry to account for except for virginia northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just looking at the euro sfc temps on the mid-range cutoff, they're way to warm for anything. I would let that system go. There is no cold air around. It is basically the equivalent of an early spring cutoff. It's caught in the middle of a vacating trough and an incoming trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 0z Goofy brought back my sprinkles for the 8/9th plus a bonus light rain on the 11/12th while north ga gets in on some flizzard action Tomorrow morning will show a different solution, but for now I'll enjoy my fantasy sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 There is a very large spread in the Euro ensemble members from day 7 onward, especially in the Pacific. Difficult time right now for the medium range forecaster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 8:19 AM, Cheeznado said: There is a very large spread in the Euro ensemble members from day 7 onward, especially in the Pacific. Difficult time right now for the medium range forecaster..... Fighting with an Alaskan vortex? Ridge positioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 8:26 AM, JoMo said: Fighting with an Alaskan vortex? Ridge positioning? More likely fighting with itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 6z operational GFS has a pretty cold, stormy look overall later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 4:30 AM, Mr Bob said: Week four which goes out to Feb 6 has 90% of the lower 48 above normal with little change over Greenland...I have held the belief that the mid January would have some hope but combined with the latest Euro ensembles (which are no torch but not anything close to a locked in cold pattern) I am about to throw in the towel. With the high amplitude waves in the pattern from time to time we will get some shots of cold but nothing sustained...Jan 2008 which appears to be a better and better analog, I recall driving to NOLA for AMS back then and seeing snow on the ground in Laurel, MS...small areas of dynamically driven snow might be the best to hope for... Hush.... you'll get the cliff people on the ledge. But Mr. Bob... do you REALLY believe a model 4 weeks out? I mean the Euro verification score drops from a .979 at 3 days to a .761 at 7, it HAS to be MUCH lower at 30 days. My guess is flipping a coin will give you at least as good of a result. You're not Wildreman are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 4:44 AM, nchighcountrywx said: Most confusing winter for many forecasters in ages. Lots of flopping going on. Still not sold here that the Stratospheric Warming Event will be the salvation of our winter. Euro weeklies have me highly concerned that the general thinking by the NWS of a much above average Jan - Feb will play out. Yes, the quick cold shot was great here earlier this week, but it moved out as fast as it came in. Hardly got to know it. My hunch is something in between: there will be a battleground NW of our area setting up and we will be on the wrong side of it. It will extend from Oklahoma through Ohio up into the NE. Don't jump! You cancelled winter and hen got snow. It is not over just be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well it looks like the GFS fell to the Euro on that ULL for next week. Euro had that one sniffed out for awhile. Hopefully Euro is correct about that GOM action and the cold. If so again next weekend is the time to watch. That could be our big ticket item. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:59 AM, msuwx said: 6z operational GFS has a pretty cold, stormy look overall later in the run. Indeed that system at the end looks pretty tasty. It gets crazy cold at the very end of the run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the possible severe weather event for portions of the southeast next week. There will be plenty of moisture to work with and enough instability to pop a few thunderstorms. Granted, this looks like a Gulf Coast event but still looking like an interesting set-up as the ULL moves through the Deep South. It's not your classic severe weather set-up but neither was December 22 when GA had 6 tornadoes.... Something to watch over the next few days! Also more likely than the fantasy cold you guys keep talking about hahaha! I kid, I kid. http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/2012/01/rain-moves-in-with-stronger-storms-on.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 10:59 AM, msuwx said: 6z operational GFS has a pretty cold, stormy look overall later in the run. Crazy cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 all models are talking crazy cold. What are we looking at single digit lows and teens and 20'd for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 1:12 PM, POWERSTROKE said: all models are talking crazy cold. What are we looking at single digit lows and teens and 20'd for highs? Maybe not that crazy cold, as the OP is probably overdone but with a 1033 high modeled over the lakes we should be around freezing and lows in the low 20's, I would guess. This would be for my area, for your area, your probably 5 degrees colder, mountains would be really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dr. Ryan Maue's site shows the GFS anomalies clearly on this graphic loop. It shows you how the GFS depiction of possible severe cold around January 20th will develop. http://policlimate.c...a_plan_ext.html Graphic courtesy of Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 1:12 PM, POWERSTROKE said: all models are talking crazy cold. What are we looking at single digit lows and teens and 20'd for highs? Verbatim at 372 18z it has highs in the 20's for the day and at 6z at 384 it's still in the 20's with your area in the teens. Just remember though last year it had some cold outbreaks forecast that far out and it didn't verify...and that was with a great setup...but who knows what could happen in this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 1:12 PM, POWERSTROKE said: all models are talking crazy cold. What are we looking at single digit lows and teens and 20'd for highs? This only goes to 300 hours but you'll see the cold... and someone in the southeast would probably be getting some snow. http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_06z_2m_temp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 On 1/6/2012 at 1:22 PM, nchighcountrywx said: Dr. Ryan Maue's site shows the GFS anomalies clearly on this graphic loop. It shows you how the GFS depiction of possible severe cold around January 20th will develop. http://policlimate.c...a_plan_ext.html Graphic courtesy of Ryan Maue Awesome! Thanks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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