packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The good news is the GFS brings the lakes wave further south, and helps pull cold air further south this run, but the bad news might be its digging the Rockies wave so far west it might cut off. We don't really want that , you need to see it dig toward Texas and keep rolling via the southern route. Yeah, not as bad as the 6z run but not as good as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The good news is the GFS brings the lakes wave further south, and helps pull cold air further south this run, but the bad news might be its digging the Rockies wave so far west it might cut off. We don't really want that , you need to see it dig toward Texas and keep rolling via the southern route. It's a really strong vort at 500 at hour 126 in New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Weatherbell Subscribers: Joe D'Aleo released a good writeup this morning to subscribers on the Stratospheric Warming Event underway and what it may mean to the pattern. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 138 it looks like it may want to start cutting off in West Texas, meanwhile our window of cold air would be limited, esp. with strong arctic high to the north. We'll see where it goes. Very "euroish"now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 138 it looks like it may want to start cutting off in West Texas, meanwhile our window of cold air would be limited, esp. with strong arctic high to the north. We'll see where it goes. Very "euroish"now. cuts off at 141. 2 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The good news is the GFS brings the lakes wave further south, and helps pull cold air further south this run, but the bad news might be its digging the Rockies wave so far west it might cut off. We don't really want that , you need to see it dig toward Texas and keep rolling via the southern route. Yep not we want this run, Out to 147 looks like a ULL in Tx and nothing off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 138 it looks like it may want to start cutting off in West Texas, meanwhile our window of cold air would be limited, esp. with strong arctic high to the north. We'll see where it goes. Very "euroish"now. cutoff in NW Texas at hour 144, and the cold in the east is retreating. As modeled this is not going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 138 it looks like it may want to start cutting off in West Texas, meanwhile our window of cold air would be limited, esp. with strong arctic high to the north. We'll see where it goes. Very "euroish"now. Yep, barely moves from 123 to 138, errr 147, and appears to have closed off. bye bye cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Another piece of energy diving hard from the north pacific at 156, that could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Out to 162 it's looking pretty close to the Euro just not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 it cuts off, not what we wanted if your'e hoping for snow. The northern stream zips on by the east, after bringing down a little cold air. We've seen countless systems now split right around the northern plains or Northwest this season do this. Pretty unusual to keep seeing this, but the northern stream is so active and fast. We'll need a bigger high to sprawl in the plains or lakes (so far they're weak except our current one), or we'll need the southern stream to not quite cut off. Who knows yet if this is right, but its beginning to lean toward Ecmwf so we'll see if that model keeps on doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Still hanging out at 159. maybe it will just stay there the rest of the winter.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 At around 168 hours its spinning in southeast Tx near Houston. I wouldn't be surprised if wet snow is found under it, its a tight , very strong vort. and just enough cold air underneath to possibly bring Tx. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Quite a bit stronger than the 6z -- almost three closed contours ... if there were some cold air with this one, yikes .... Still hanging out at 159. maybe it will just stay there the rest of the winter.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Still there at 171 with another piece of energy dropping out of Canada east of the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 impressive with the gfs latching on around the same time as euro with a cut off/storm of some sort. todays euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Let's see if the northern stream can pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Close call... at 171 hours, the 0C 850 mb line dips into North .... wait for it ... DAKOTA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Quite a bit stronger than the 6z -- almost three closed contours ... if there were some cold air with this one, yikes .... Seems like the same old story. When it's cold enough for snow, there is no precip around. When there is precip around, it's too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Man what a difference a run makes. Sheesh @189 nothing but a warm rain...it does however appear to be pulling a lot of cold air down behind it though so the 200 - 240 time frame might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 All aboard the arctic express at 240 some really cold air coming down the pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Man what a difference a run makes. Sheesh @189 nothing but a warm rain...it does however appear to be pulling a lot of cold air down behind it though so the 200 - 240 time frame might get interesting. So the old cliche holds true- there is always a storm beyond 240! Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is a classic, bowling bowl cutoff, and its taking an exquisite track across the Gulf states...really painful with no cold air. But no big loss, this is the scenario I envision later on with cold air. Actually it's not that warm with this one, just a stale old airmass, probably +4 to +8. It heads across Al to central Carolinas, not quite absorbed with the incoming trough. Good rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So the old cliche holds true- there is always a storm beyond 240! Nice. It's always just 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So the old cliche holds true- there is always a storm beyond 240! Nice. This time it's a clipper at 264 lol...I would just be happy with the cold air it has coming. If that comes to fruition we might actually be in business for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 More of a ridge building in the Pacific toward the end of the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We need to take bets on the Euro, it probably flips and shows what the GFS showed last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We need to take bets on the Euro, it probably flips and shows what the GFS showed last night My Prediction....Pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 so both models now almost phase (probably do in New England) which would be a major arctic outbreak. We may could use this, as it would help warm Greenland and help with a neg NAO possibly. Meanwhile, no shortage of western Ridging, so we keep getting cold outbreaks past 10 days. Overall not a bad look. Remember how tough cutoffs are for the models, and this one could end up in southern Texas, so the models won't get it right for a while yet, as to when it moves out. It looks isolated from the flow for a couple/3 days. It could be that the northern stream ends up picking it up anywhere from the Deep South to New England, so folks on the nw side would end up with a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 My Prediction....Pain. You're probably right Clubber Lang. Euro just told the GFS it needs to get with a real weather model while flexing it's muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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