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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Really...I thought people saying they were a little better.

Week four which goes out to Feb 6 has 90% of the lower 48 above normal with little change over Greenland...I have held the belief that the mid January would have some hope but combined with the latest Euro ensembles (which are no torch but not anything close to a locked in cold pattern) I am about to throw in the towel. With the high amplitude waves in the pattern from time to time we will get some shots of cold but nothing sustained...Jan 2008 which appears to be a better and better analog, I recall driving to NOLA for AMS back then and seeing snow on the ground in Laurel, MS...small areas of dynamically driven snow might be the best to hope for...

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Week four which goes out to Feb 6 has 90% of the lower 48 above normal with little change over Greenland...I have held the belief that the mid January would have some hope but combined with the latest Euro ensembles (which are no torch but not anything close to a locked in cold pattern) I am about to throw in the towel. With the high amplitude waves in the pattern from time to time we will get some shots of cold but nothing sustained...Jan 2008 which appears to be a better and better analog, I recall driving to NOLA for AMS back then and seeing snow on the ground in Laurel, MS...small areas of dynamically driven snow might be the best to hope for...

Well with that news and the crap look at 240 of GFS....

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Most confusing winter for many forecasters in ages. Lots of flopping going on.

Still not sold here that the Stratospheric Warming Event will be the salvation of our winter.

Euro weeklies have me highly concerned that the general thinking by the NWS of a much above average Jan - Feb will play out. Yes, the quick cold shot was great here earlier this week, but it moved out as fast as it came in. Hardly got to know it.

My hunch is something in between: there will be a battleground NW of our area setting up and we will be on the wrong side of it. It will extend from Oklahoma through Ohio up into the NE.

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Just looked at the NHem 5h, that does look good in the extended. I think that is different from 12z run.

It now begins around day 10 though , not day 15 , so thats a step in the right direction. Usually when the GFS sees a big ticket item in the long range, really big, it latches on..even though individual and model ensembles wafffle. Still can't place precisely where, but strong odds lean toward a major block somewhere within the vicinity of Alaska, north Pole, eastern Siberia. It's still not worked into the day 10 and under frame, but the odds just keep on growing that a major upheaval is about to get underway, and whoever lies at the southern periphery of that boundary will be the recipients of Winter weather. Most all of the US would get extremely cold with that. The only icing on the cake would be a double block (another closed high in Greenland or Baffin Island)..in which case it grows Historic in the Southeast. I wouldn't go there yet. Excellent run and fits with where the model is headed, but patience is needed, it may take the bulk of the month to get there. But when they happen, they live a long time.

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It now begins around day 10 though , not day 15 , so thats a step in the right direction. Usually when the GFS sees a big ticket item in the long range, really big, it latches on..even though individual and model ensembles wafffle. Still can't place precisely where, but strong odds lean toward a major block somewhere within the vicinity of Alaska, north Pole, eastern Siberia. It's still not worked into the day 10 and under frame, but the odds just keep on growing that a major upheaval is about to get underway, and whoever lies at the southern periphery of that boundary will be the recipients of Winter weather. Most all of the US would get extremely cold with that. The only icing on the cake would be a double block (another closed high in Greenland or Baffin Island)..in which case it grows Historic in the Southeast. I wouldn't go there yet. Excellent run and fits with where the model is headed, but patience is needed, it may take the bulk of the month to get there. But when they happen, they live a long time.

wow, that IS quite an impressive look there north of Alaska with the strong closed high. That's usually the recipe for major cold dumpage into the states.

gfsak.gif

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Around Day 7 on the 0z Euro something brews in the GoM as the cold air filters in. Wondering if it just keeps that system suppressed or does it manage to tango with the cold.

The Euro also is now in pretty good agreement with the GFS and Canadian wrt the bowling ball cutoff. Ready to see that next frame though to see if the GoM Low moves north or stays suppressed like you mention.

edit: couldn't tell with the 24 hour maps, but whatever it does it appears to move quick.

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