rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yeah, that thing in Cali is new. Yeah it is, atleast I haven't seen it before. The other closed 500 low goes right over Atl. heading NE. Looks like a good soaking rain for buckeyefan. She'll like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just ridiculous seeing 3 closed lows at 144. Got to bea record. The world is coming to an end. :-) Yeah, and the 1st closed low gets crazy strong. It's possible but I don't know. The gfs might of hit the liquor cabinet earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Really...I thought people saying they were a little better. Week four which goes out to Feb 6 has 90% of the lower 48 above normal with little change over Greenland...I have held the belief that the mid January would have some hope but combined with the latest Euro ensembles (which are no torch but not anything close to a locked in cold pattern) I am about to throw in the towel. With the high amplitude waves in the pattern from time to time we will get some shots of cold but nothing sustained...Jan 2008 which appears to be a better and better analog, I recall driving to NOLA for AMS back then and seeing snow on the ground in Laurel, MS...small areas of dynamically driven snow might be the best to hope for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like our rain maker ends up getting pretty healthy.. 980 over New England. I guess its modeled stronger due to its interaction with the system over the lakes region, which also seems to cause the cold front to not dig as far south but get pulled further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yeah, and the 1st closed low gets crazy strong. It's possible but I don't know. The gfs might of hit the liquor cabinet earlier. Yeah looks like 972, insanely strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just ridiculous seeing 3 closed lows at 144. Got to bea record. The world is coming to an end. :-) tis' the season for them. This run is pretty different. It phases the cutoff in Northern New England at 180. Not nearly as cold in the central part of the US as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Week four which goes out to Feb 6 has 90% of the lower 48 above normal with little change over Greenland...I have held the belief that the mid January would have some hope but combined with the latest Euro ensembles (which are no torch but not anything close to a locked in cold pattern) I am about to throw in the towel. With the high amplitude waves in the pattern from time to time we will get some shots of cold but nothing sustained...Jan 2008 which appears to be a better and better analog, I recall driving to NOLA for AMS back then and seeing snow on the ground in Laurel, MS...small areas of dynamically driven snow might be the best to hope for... Well with that news and the crap look at 240 of GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Nice SE ridge there at 240. Just in time for the moisture....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm not sure if it would have had mattered but if that second system had got a move on and timed itself correctly when the cold air was moving in, I think we would have had something there but it just hung out west and died off around Day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Most confusing winter for many forecasters in ages. Lots of flopping going on. Still not sold here that the Stratospheric Warming Event will be the salvation of our winter. Euro weeklies have me highly concerned that the general thinking by the NWS of a much above average Jan - Feb will play out. Yes, the quick cold shot was great here earlier this week, but it moved out as fast as it came in. Hardly got to know it. My hunch is something in between: there will be a battleground NW of our area setting up and we will be on the wrong side of it. It will extend from Oklahoma through Ohio up into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 gotta love that huge blocking that starts at 240 hours and works into Alaska and north, and cuts off into a strong closed high. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 So latest model runs are crap? I am getting very anxious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 gotta love that huge blocking that starts at 240 hours and works into Alaska and north, and cuts off into a strong closed high. Nice. Just looked at the NHem 5h, that does look good in the extended. I think that is different from 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well it was only a brief warmup before the cold starts working it's way back south. The good ol' gfs even threw in a fantasy storm for us at 384 for our trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 So latest model runs are crap? I am getting very anxious! Well they've been pretty much crap all winter so nothing has changed in the latest. Hopefully things will change soon. Still a long ways to go this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just looked at the NHem 5h, that does look good in the extended. I think that is different from 12z run. It now begins around day 10 though , not day 15 , so thats a step in the right direction. Usually when the GFS sees a big ticket item in the long range, really big, it latches on..even though individual and model ensembles wafffle. Still can't place precisely where, but strong odds lean toward a major block somewhere within the vicinity of Alaska, north Pole, eastern Siberia. It's still not worked into the day 10 and under frame, but the odds just keep on growing that a major upheaval is about to get underway, and whoever lies at the southern periphery of that boundary will be the recipients of Winter weather. Most all of the US would get extremely cold with that. The only icing on the cake would be a double block (another closed high in Greenland or Baffin Island)..in which case it grows Historic in the Southeast. I wouldn't go there yet. Excellent run and fits with where the model is headed, but patience is needed, it may take the bulk of the month to get there. But when they happen, they live a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 00z CMC says watch the cutoff midweek.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yikes, the indices look terrible on the 0Z op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Great write up Foothills. Always seeing possiblities in the models. Ams ya looks interesting to say the least. I no that is the cmc but also looking at the GFS there looks to maybe just maybe be snow in northern AL,GA going up the APPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 00z CMC says watch the cutoff midweek.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us That was last nights run you linked. This is tonight's run and it looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this tonight run Marietta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Is this tonight run Marietta? yep, I think that is it. Not terrible looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It now begins around day 10 though , not day 15 , so thats a step in the right direction. Usually when the GFS sees a big ticket item in the long range, really big, it latches on..even though individual and model ensembles wafffle. Still can't place precisely where, but strong odds lean toward a major block somewhere within the vicinity of Alaska, north Pole, eastern Siberia. It's still not worked into the day 10 and under frame, but the odds just keep on growing that a major upheaval is about to get underway, and whoever lies at the southern periphery of that boundary will be the recipients of Winter weather. Most all of the US would get extremely cold with that. The only icing on the cake would be a double block (another closed high in Greenland or Baffin Island)..in which case it grows Historic in the Southeast. I wouldn't go there yet. Excellent run and fits with where the model is headed, but patience is needed, it may take the bulk of the month to get there. But when they happen, they live a long time. wow, that IS quite an impressive look there north of Alaska with the strong closed high. That's usually the recipe for major cold dumpage into the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 yep, I think that is it. Not terrible looking. No it looks a lot more organized maybe something to really watch, especially with the cold air rushing in maybe.Could be pulled into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 wow, that IS quite an impressive look there north of Alaska with the strong closed high. That's usually the recipe for major cold dumpage into the states. Do you think the models will catch onto this in the next few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 That was last nights run you linked. This is tonight's run and it looks pretty similar. Yep, my bad. Uploaded the one I saved from last night. Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Around Day 7 on the 0z Euro something brews in the GoM as the cold air filters in. Wondering if it just keeps that system suppressed or does it manage to tango with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Around Day 7 on the 0z Euro something brews in the GoM as the cold air filters in. Wondering if it just keeps that system suppressed or does it manage to tango with the cold. The Euro also is now in pretty good agreement with the GFS and Canadian wrt the bowling ball cutoff. Ready to see that next frame though to see if the GoM Low moves north or stays suppressed like you mention. edit: couldn't tell with the 24 hour maps, but whatever it does it appears to move quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I can't tell what happens between the frames (don't have access to such), but it looks like it stays just a bit too far south but does maintain its strength of around 1008mb as it appears to have traversed through northern FL and OTS at 192. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 You can get 3-6 hour maps out to 180 for the Euro on Wunderground. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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