buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Only 18 minutes later. And it isn't even dinner time yet. Brick, I don't care what the vote was, you are the WOTY. Yes he is I use a hair dryer to get warm air into my briefs. But that said I'm focused on that rain next week. If that happens then Tinkerbell gets to live. The piddling amounts this weekend can stay low, as long as the big gulf rains come with the Ull. Hang on, Tink, hang on T Big gulf rains and saving Tinkerbell is what I'm dreaming of I'm still pretty set on next weekend holding the most potential. We shall see in the up coming runs but we need to time it perfect so that when the pattern is breaking something can slide in and we can cash in...but of course it's all about timing. Hopefully the 12z runs were just a blip and continues to show a good break down of the PV and we manage a 50/50 low. Guess I can dream can't I? Dreaming is what is keeping me sane 18z GFS keeps the ULL maybe not as strong as 12z lots of rain on there. That's all I'm asking for...rain....and lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Robert has been saying for weeks that the models have not been accurate. So far he has been right. Just last week everybody was cliff diving because they show warm for a long time. Now looks like he was right and we still have some to say its not going to snow, its warming up, winter is over etc. Robert told me again today when I called him do not watch every run of the models as they gonna keep changing. It's coming guys. One decent snow and we hit our average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18z Lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Robert has been saying for weeks that the models have not been accurate. So far he has been right. Just last week everybody was cliff diving because they show warm for a long time. Now looks like he was right and we still have some to say its not going to snow, its warming up, winter is over etc. Robert told me again today when I called him do not watch every run of the models as they gonna keep changing. It's coming guys. One decent snow and we hit our average. The only cliff diver I have seen is Brick and well he's Brick. The warmth is coming, started today, and has been depicted for quite some time. What happens after that is unknown because like you say the models keep flipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yes he is Big gulf rains and saving Tinkerbell is what I'm dreaming of Dreaming is what is keeping me sane That's all I'm asking for...rain....and lots of it You'll be happy. Lots of rain for CAE on this run. As for the rest of it well that's not so good. After the cold shot it warms back up again goes on a rinse repeat pattern it's looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18z And then as always, here comes the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18z continues the tease of something big at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Robert has been saying for weeks that the models have not been accurate. So far he has been right. Just last week everybody was cliff diving because they show warm for a long time. Now looks like he was right and we still have some to say its not going to snow, its warming up, winter is over etc. Robert told me again today when I called him do not watch every run of the models as they gonna keep changing. It's coming guys. One decent snow and we hit our average. I agree you can see the models go from one solution to another. I have heard that the models tend to have a real tough time with pattern changes in the long range. Although this big system is only a week away but the models have showed that they have not been accurate at all this fall/winter. Just my 2 cents. I would not go bonkers on the Euro or the GFS currently. We will have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Here's the verification scores for 5 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'm still pretty set on next weekend holding the most potential. We shall see in the up coming runs but we need to time it perfect so that when the pattern is breaking something can slide in and we can cash in...but of course it's all about timing. Hopefully the 12z runs were just a blip and continues to show a good break down of the PV and we manage a 50/50 low. Guess I can dream can't I? Yep, I like the look of that...I guess it was the 6z, without looking back. Cold air coming down and pretty good gulf moisture suppressed...has the look of something that could actually happen, and not so very far off...just a bit over a week. Of course a week on these model runs is eternity, when stuff changes by the run And first things first...need to get that heavy rain for Michelle and I...got to save Tink!! If that rain comes in as advertized, then I'll begin to believe again. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18z continues the tease of something big at 384. I'll post it.... Man if this was only 72 hours out. <dreaming> this would be a potential huge ice storm (CAD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll post it.... Man if this was only 72 hours out. <dreaming> this would be a potential huge ice storm (CAD). I think you are 100% correct as depicted. Even the temp profile which is laughable at this range seems to agree. But we all know with a 1040 High in that place we would get some cold funneling down. Lots of NC would be put under an inch of ice lol. Nice catch I did not even notice this till you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Does this not spark any interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Does this not spark any interest? 12z hinted at that as well. Would like to see the upper low get a little deeper. Most have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I'll post it.... Man if this was only 72 hours out. <dreaming> this would be a potential huge ice storm (CAD). Looks like another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 what really is interesting to me, has there been a winter analog year where essentially the WHOLE lower 48 has been above normal temps at this point in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like another cold rain. Doesn't really matter since it's the 18z gfs and hr 384 but I doubt that would be a cold rain. Not w/ a 1040 high to the north in that position. 850's are shown being a little too warm but there would be some low level cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like another cold rain. This far out it very well could be sunny and 70 degrees. But as MariettaWx also stated if this exact setup occured many in the CAD regions would be in business. Edit: and rduwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Yep, I like the look of that...I guess it was the 6z, without looking back. Cold air coming down and pretty good gulf moisture suppressed...has the look of something that could actually happen, and not so very far off...just a bit over a week. Of course a week on these model runs is eternity, when stuff changes by the run And first things first...need to get that heavy rain for Michelle and I...got to save Tink!! If that rain comes in as advertized, then I'll begin to believe again. T Goofy keeps teasing us with some great totals in the medium range, but they seem to disappear the closer it gets Hopefully goofy won't loose this next system I'll post it.... Man if this was only 72 hours out. <dreaming> this would be a potential huge ice storm (CAD). That is a beautiful CAD set up there....it's been a long time since I've seen that look with a 1040 in the right spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looks like another cold rain. Hard to tell with at the end of the run because you don't have the 12-hr precip after 384 which would be the ice...In retrospect, it's kinda silly to even discuss at this detail, it will disappear by 0z run. Edit: Like others have said, CAD is in place, so realistically it would be hard for this to be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Still looks to me like the pattern is changing to a colder one w/ potential storms embedded in the pattern - just not snowy at this point. I am looking at the pattern versus raw temp numbers. If the trough can hold in the East, it may get very cold. I do think the trough will set-up in the West first but then broaden to include the East. It looks like the second half of winter is looking pretty cold. The AO looks to be going in the tank which puts cold air into the pattern. What we may not see over the next two weeks is a trough locking into the East - but it will get cold and may be colder than normal for some places the further south you go. As for climo, we didn't waste our cold air in December, now it appears the pattern may support cold during the last month and a half of winter. We were spoiled last year w/ cold that just never let up. That will not be the case this winter. But, we will have IMO a balanced amount of cold when compared to warm. With the pattern staying active, this atypical La Nina should give at least a few mid-late season storm opportunities which increases the chances that someone can score big w/ snow amounts. It is, I admit freely, very difficult to wait - but I think opportunities will arrive. Some great winters of the past waited until late January to get things rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looking at the last couple runs of the Euro and the last day's worth of runs from the GFS, I only see one thing missing from our new colder pattern -- COLD AIR! Yes, it's frigid in the northern half of the country for many of these runs, but the SE ridge continues to rear it's head as it has all fall and winter. Who knows what will happen, but underestimating the SE ridge would be a big mistake, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Looking at the last couple runs of the Euro and the last day's worth of runs from the GFS, I only see one thing missing from our new colder pattern -- COLD AIR! Yes, it's frigid in the northern half of the country for many of these runs, but the SE ridge continues to rear it's head as it has all fall and winter. Who knows what will happen, but underestimating the SE ridge would be a big mistake, imo. I think we can blame La Nina for that one. Hopefully things will change in the future. With models being all over the place right now it would be nice to see some consistancy to know where we are heading later in the month and for next month. Hopefully that consistancy will show up w/ in the next week. Would a 50/50 low and west based -NAO be to much to ask for?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 this is getting crazy. I thought for sure by now we would of had something to follow. Everyday I come home thinking well its got to be something worth talking about today for the future. I would have thought something would give by now and we would be talking about a couple of good snow storms. I've lived in the NC Mtns. my whole life of which I am now 59 and I've never seen warm keep hanging on like this in January and no snow, especially where not much seems to be in our future also. If it isn't going to snow I just soon it be warm also. When is this cycle going to BREAK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Robert has been saying for weeks that the models have not been accurate. So far he has been right. Just last week everybody was cliff diving because they show warm for a long time. Now looks like he was right and we still have some to say its not going to snow, its warming up, winter is over etc. Robert told me again today when I called him do not watch every run of the models as they gonna keep changing. It's coming guys. One decent snow and we hit our average. thanks for putting my head on the chopping block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 this is getting crazy. I thought for sure by now we would of had something to follow. Everyday I come home thinking well its got to be something worth talking about today for the future. I would have thought something would give by now and we would be talking about a couple of good snow storms. I've lived in the NC Mtns. my whole life of which I am now 59 and I've never seen warm keep hanging on like this in January and no snow, especially where not much seems to be in our future also. If it isn't going to snow I just soon it be warm also. When is this cycle going to BREAK? We can talk about the 18z, 384 gfs if you'd like. Unfortunately, that's all I got... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 We can talk about the 18z, 384 gfs if you'd like. Unfortunately, that's all I got... yep fantasy storms I guess are better than nothing. I thought once we got December out of the way January would be much better. Boy was I wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 this is getting crazy. I thought for sure by now we would of had something to follow. Everyday I come home thinking well its got to be something worth talking about today for the future. I would have thought something would give by now and we would be talking about a couple of good snow storms. I've lived in the NC Mtns. my whole life of which I am now 59 and I've never seen warm keep hanging on like this in January and no snow, especially where not much seems to be in our future also. If it isn't going to snow I just soon it be warm also. When is this cycle going to BREAK? It's just the 5th, right? It wasn't "warm hanging on" when I had a high of 26 the other day either. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm still not worried. We were spoiled the last couple Winters. It's to be expected to be "let down" to an extent. Climo says Feb is SC's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 My thoughts on the pattern... http://northcarolinafoothillsweather.blogspot.com/2012/01/colder-weather-may-be-coming-soon.html Basically it gets very complicated after the storm next Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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