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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Most importantly, the 192 to 216 maps show a developing ridge that finally reaches western Alaska, that pushes that semi-permanent vortex thats been there 2 months, out of the there and into the Gulf of Alaska. From there it might slide due south, which would turn the western Coast cold, and southwest flow in the East. Too early to say.

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1040 high in Canada, a split in the flow in southern Canada, so that opens the door for the cold to come down via a new s/w in the middle and eastern US, with a huge western Alaska ridge. But the unknown factor is how the Alaskan vortex changes the flow. I'm sure the models won't get things right yet, and hunch that a new couple of strong waves are somewhere unseen at this time range. Its not a clean flow yet.

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What would that imply for the SE- warm?

very well could. but the PV is locatd near Hudson Bay and we have a general trough in teh east. There's too many other ways that this could go, and other factors. We still don't have that good of agreement for long enough time between models to say one way or another. Atleast most models get rid of the Alaskan vortex by day 8 or 10 but it still might be a change for southern warmth. You can't say yet.

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very well could. but the PV is locatd near Hudson Bay and we have a general trough in teh east. There's too many other ways that this could go, and other factors. We still don't have that good of agreement for long enough time between models to say one way or another. Atleast most models get rid of the Alaskan vortex by day 8 or 10 but it still might be a change for southern warmth. You can't say yet.

Thanks for the response. Things are fluid and will need to lock in on a solution it seems or settle on an established flow pattern..

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Yeah, the longer range Euro shows a big change in the EPAC, with a strong trough off the coast. This would be a dry pattern here, maybe cold, maybe not depending on how much the PV strengthens over SE Canada/the NE US.

yeah who knows what the wave length spacing will be. This run has some trouble deciding and you can tell beginning about the time that vortex in Alaska begins dropping south down the west coast or off the coast. By then there's a another weak s/w near the lakes and behind that is the 1040 arctic high and very cold. So there may be a push with that, depends on whats going on in eastern Canada. Usually I don't like seeing a big trough off the west coast, but there could be some offsetting even if there is, but I bet this run isn't the final say so. It actually could end up being decent if that vortex drops really far south and allows for a supressed flow in the east with that arctic high building down, but obviously at day 10 too many unknowns yet. The good thing is about all models agree on sending up a strong ridge somewhere in western Alaska just over a week away now, after that, who knows.

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Still early with the upcoming changes so I see the models flipping all over the place for the next coupe of weeks. It will be interesting to see who verifies though.

I'm trying to come up with a good way to follow the model maps for verification purposes. I'm a visual learner so I need images to follow!

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Thanks for the response. Things are fluid and will need to lock in on a solution it seems or settle on an established flow pattern..

Probably going to be hard for all the models to lock in on a pattern more than 1 or 2 runs. This pattern has been chaotic and changeable. We had a warm December but even then the only thing stable really was the strong +a0 pattern. Looks like that might be coming to an end, but I haven't seen the charts lately.

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Looks like an incredibly warm and almost unheard of period of warmth the next week. Highs 15-20 above normal. Lows 20-25 above normal. Our lows on a few days could be warmer than our average highs. So much for the "brief" warmup that some people were mentioning.

Huh? What do you consider brief? IF the Euro is correct the warm up lasts around 3 - 4 days. That would be considered a brief warmup considering what's coming down the pipe again though IF the models are correct.

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Huh? What do you consider brief? IF the Euro is correct the warm up lasts around 3 - 4 days. That would be considered a brief warmup considering what's coming down the pipe again though IF the models are correct.

Above normal temps the next 7 days. I don't consider that brief. Highs running 10-20 above normal through next Wed.

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OK, I am starting to get excited about our snow chances again. It looks more and more like things are going to be looking up after the middle of next week. I just read Matthew East's blog post for today, and he said the rain system the middle of next week will be the game changer. Bring it!

http://mattheweast.b...-moving-in.html

Only 18 minutes later.

Now I feel like I need to dial my excitement back a bit. A recent post on the banter thread got me thinking. Is there even a fantasy storm on the models for beyond 10 days? Don't we usually have at least that? And it does seem people have been talking about the pattern change for a while, and the closer we get to when it is supposed to happen, it doesn't happen, and it keeps getting pushed back.

I guess it would nice to see at least something to know the potential is there. So far we haven't even had any potential. Maybe next week really will be the game changer. It just seems like the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. I'm worried it will keep getting pushed back until winter is gone.

Allan Huffman thinks there is potential for severe weather next Wednesday.

Well, 2011 was a year of extremes. It seems only right that it continues into 2012. Except, I was hoping for extreme snow, but it feels like it's going to be to the other extreme, and not have any snow but severe storms instead.

And it isn't even dinner time yet. Brick, I don't care what the vote was, you are the WOTY.

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OK, just keeping it real :D.....in looking at the 12z GFS/GFS Ensemble/Euro/Euro Ensemble, we do see a period of cold weather behind the storm system in the middle of next week…and we see the ridge building in the North Pacific that eradicates the Alaska vortex, opening the door for cold air to drop south out of northwest Canada. However, in the extended, the Alaska vortex begins to re-form and the vortex north of Hudson Bay remains as strong as ever which very much inhibits development of a solidly negative NAO….the Euro Ensemble being an exception in the vicinity of Alaska as as it does not re-build a vortex there through hr240. We are talking about the extended range here, and it’s only one set of model runs, but this was a mini-step back.

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I'm still pretty set on next weekend holding the most potential. We shall see in the up coming runs but we need to time it perfect so that when the pattern is breaking something can slide in and we can cash in...but of course it's all about timing. Hopefully the 12z runs were just a blip and continues to show a good break down of the PV and we manage a 50/50 low. Guess I can dream can't I?

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OK, just keeping it real :D.....in looking at the 12z GFS/GFS Ensemble/Euro/Euro Ensemble, we do see a period of cold weather behind the storm system in the middle of next week…and we see the ridge building in the North Pacific that eradicates the Alaska vortex, opening the door for cold air to drop south out of northwest Canada. However, in the extended, the Alaska vortex begins to re-form and the vortex north of Hudson Bay remains as strong as ever which very much inhibits development of a solidly negative NAO….the Euro Ensemble being an exception in the vicinity of Alaska as as it does not re-build a vortex there through hr240. We are talking about the extended range here, and it’s only one set of model runs, but this was a mini-step back.

Yeah noticed that too, it's worrisome it starts to rebuild it, but the good news it is 384 hours and it's not rebuilt even close to what it was before, hopefully it starts to break it down after 384.

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Looks like an incredibly warm and almost unheard of period of warmth the next week. Highs 15-20 above normal. Lows 20-25 above normal. Our lows on a few days could be warmer than our average highs. So much for the "brief" warmup that some people were mentioning.

nothing unusual at all. There is no model saying long period of warm

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Hey everyone. Does anyone think we could have another decent rounds of severe weather this spring? I ask this because it seems like winter will be delayed this year. I'm afraid we could see huge cold spells late in the season when climatology prefers to warm us up. When those two meet, and instability levels rise, severe weather can occur. Just curious if anyone else is thinking this. I guess this is assuming we'll get colder weather later in the period.
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