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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Try 19 in the smokies, I beleive a hair tick over 6,000ft ( could be 5,000) but if my memory is correct thats pretty amaizing. Can't recollect wher I saw that at. Anyway got to go back into hiding at work. Great PBP/Annalysis. Keep it up for those of us with eyes over our shoulders.

No only 2500' plenty of 5000' peaks within a few min drive. If it worth it I would travel. But i will take my chance with a strong upper low anytime in January.

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Canadian is completely different from anything we have seen so far. Takes the low never closes it and runs it right in the lakes region phasing with the northern stream, drops the mother lode of cold air in the CONUS and looks like a blizzard in the Great Lakes.

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html

Euro done this as well a day or 2 ago. Having a well developed cutoff get absorbed into a digging longwave is a great release of energy that can affect a continent atleast. It can be a total flow changer, just like when tropical systems get absorbed, all the energy released can affect the flow, and usually does. But that's just one option, it could be like the GFS and remain mostly separate from the main trough. I think if it were to get absorbed that would help set up neg. NAO to some degree and maybe keep some confluence in the Northeast for the next pacific system, which would help us out in the Southeast or Midatlantic later on. But either way, its obvious we're going to get cold air back in here shortly after 7 days.

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Euro done this as well a day or 2 ago. Having a well developed cutoff get absorbed into a digging longwave is a great release of energy that can affect a continent atleast. It can be a total flow changer, just like when tropical systems get absorbed, all the energy released can affect the flow, and usually does. But that's just one option, it could be like the GFS and remain mostly separate from the main trough. I think if it were to get absorbed that would help set up neg. NAO to some degree and maybe keep some confluence in the Northeast for the next pacific system, which would help us out in the Southeast or Midatlantic later on. But either way, its obvious we're going to get cold air back in here shortly after 7 days.

Nice! Another day, another thing learned about the weather! Now that you mention it I do remember the Euro doing what the Canadian is showing but if I remember right the strength of what the Euro was showing was quite a bit more tame than this run.

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FFC see potentially big problems for next week with severe weather

BIGGER PROBLEMS COME TUE-WED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW

ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND

SOUTHEAST U.S. THE 00Z GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING

CONSIDERABLE SHEAR/HELICITY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA TUE

NIGHT/EARLY WED. FRANKLY...IT APPEARS OVERDONE. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES

A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND

DEFINITELY LESS INTENSE...BUT STILL DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF

SHEAR/HELICITY. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE...NEGATIVE

TILT...AND SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ADVERTISED BY THIS SYSTEM CONCERN

ME. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS/TEMPS AND NATURE OF THE

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AT THE

TIME FORCE ME TO INTRODUCE TSRA TO SAY THE LEAST. WHILE CURRENT

MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/LLJ EXHIBITED WITH THE

DEC 22 SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SIX TORNADOES IN OUR CWA...THERE IS

CERTAINLY SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS SIG TOR

PARAMETER EXCEEDS 1.0 ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH AL AND SOUTH GA/FL

PANHANDLE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONSISTENCY IN THESE SEVERE WX PARAMETERS

AS WE COME CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM.

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FFC see potentially big problems for next week with severe weather

BIGGER PROBLEMS COME TUE-WED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW

ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND

SOUTHEAST U.S. THE 00Z GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING

CONSIDERABLE SHEAR/HELICITY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA TUE

NIGHT/EARLY WED. FRANKLY...IT APPEARS OVERDONE. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES

A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND

DEFINITELY LESS INTENSE...BUT STILL DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF

SHEAR/HELICITY. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE...NEGATIVE

TILT...AND SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ADVERTISED BY THIS SYSTEM CONCERN

ME. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS/TEMPS AND NATURE OF THE

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AT THE

TIME FORCE ME TO INTRODUCE TSRA TO SAY THE LEAST. WHILE CURRENT

MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/LLJ EXHIBITED WITH THE

DEC 22 SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SIX TORNADOES IN OUR CWA...THERE IS

CERTAINLY SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS SIG TOR

PARAMETER EXCEEDS 1.0 ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH AL AND SOUTH GA/FL

PANHANDLE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONSISTENCY IN THESE SEVERE WX PARAMETERS

AS WE COME CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM.

Boy FFC sure does jump on one model run and begin honking for severe weather from way out, when they wait till winter weather is about to slap you in the face before jumping on board.

To me, beyond 5 days in this flow, it's crazy to even stick something like this out there with models that are ALL over the place. It's almost as crazy as HPC jumping on the possible midsouth snow train from a week or so ago.

I know the potential is there when looking at the GFS, but waiting a day or so in this situation wouldn't hurt anything, would it?

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Henry M. Posted a blog and he has a map that has the entire southeast east under "warmth holds on" and the map was for mid January to late feb..

Just took a gander, he thinks the SE ridge will keep us warm. He thinks the PNA will be neutral to negative and without a good -NAO he will be right.

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the cutoff on ecmwf isn't cold as the GFS for sure. At 132 its in Texas and moving e/ne. It does appear oriented to bring a copious rainfall, and even before itmoves east, theres enough Gulf moisture being thrown into the Southeast.

Thinking this system may be the key to the new pattern unfolding. Will it become a 50/50?

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at 156, the cutoff is directly over srn. Apps. Not very cold, probably +4. Which makes sense more so than GFS , this didnt' derive from a very cold place. Meanwhile the cold front is behind this system in the Plains, so they're not close to merging yet on this run.

Robert - What is the likelihood that the ULL stays separate from the incoming cold front until new england? Having such a wound up system with the cold air so close, but disconnected seems odd. Seems like the ull would get sheered out by the south winds ahead of the front....

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