burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Imo, the pattern change has not been pushed back at all. This whole winter season so far we've been looking for a pattern change but now is the first time we're seeing evidence of this showing up on the models. Something else we should remember is a lot of the pattern change we're talking about is still 1/14 or 1/15 time frame. That is still 9 to 10 days away. Add to the fact that models usually move them too fast. So while it may be showing a model change 9 to 10 days away in reality that change will probably take affect more like 13 - 14 days away. We just need to be happy that the GFS and Euro have been pushing a change with relative consistency for a few days now. Again first step is getting the cold without that we really have little chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 With all the teleconnections so screwed up this year it's amazing that we have had two wintery events (for areas of the south, west of here) at all. Talk about pulling a rabbit out of a hat, when by all accounts there shouldn't have even been a rabbit in the hat. Now that we have a more favorable look to things moving forward, who cares if its January 15th, versus being delayed till Jan 25thas long as it produces an opportunity or two/three? IMO it's the perfect time for things to change for us in the southeast. As far as climo goes, there isn't a better time for us to see the kinds of things changing that are now regularly showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Huge warming wave on the Euro concerning the strat forecasts in the next 5-10 days. Technically a SSW is defined as a reversal of mean zonal mean winds at 60N and 10 hPa (from westerly to easterly).Not quite there yet but getting closer.If things keep progressing as they have been lately I'd say a SSW is immenient.But I still think the pattern changes some even if you don't get to these levels anyway. When/if it happens you still need to see where things set up after the shakeup. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Huge warming wave on the Euro concerning the strat forecasts in the next 5-10 days. Technically a SSW is defined as a reversal of mean zonal mean winds at 60N and 10 hPa (from westerly to easterly).Not quite there yet but getting closer.If things keep progressing as they have been lately I'd say a SSW is immenient.But I still think the pattern changes some even if you don't get to these levels anyway. When/if it happens you still need to see where things set up after the shakeup. Carry on. I thnk the wheels have already been set in motion for a big change and if the above happens, it can't hurt any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Pretty amazing the difference in the 12z GFS, the 2nd piece of energy diving from Canada now starts to dig back to the south west, first time we have seen that. If that 1st close ULL gets on up to the north and this 2nd piece of energy can dig more it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That ULL on the GFS is serious. Someone in the SE could have a March 2009 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This is crazy, GFS is going to have a winter storm at 180ish for the MA and NE, I would bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12Z GFS is keeping the idea of a bowling ball ULL moving across the Gulf states then moving up the eastern seaboard, dumping plenty of rain for nearly all of us. It seems deeper and stronger that I have seen yet with this system. It even carries some below 0c 850 temps right under the ULL. It would not be impossible for some frozen precip right underneath the ULL if it ends up being as strong as depicted on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Big time arctic air spilling into the country at 183. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That ULL on the GFS is serious. Someone in the SE could have a March 2009 redux. If it were 10-15 degrees colder......haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, I like the path of the Ull better on the 0z, and the 6z had a strong bunch of moisture supressed by some diving cold for a week Sat. I can actually believe in that....looks like TinkerBell might live a while longer I guess it depends on the rest of the days runs showing an over running possibility late next week. Hang on little pixie dust lady! Maybe there'll be a 50/50! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 If it were 10-15 degrees colder......haha It's staying put with -850's just around it the whole way as it travels. It wouldn't take much more strength to really turn into something big for someone. Shift that baby just a little south and MBY is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 After 186 the cold air stays till at least 240. This is what we need to see more of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It's staying put with -850's just around it the whole way as it travels. It wouldn't take much more strength to really turn into something big for someone. Shift that baby just a little south and MBY is in play. My post was more in jest than anything else, sorry..........thought the haha conveyed that. With the trough where it is around the 180 mark, I'd love to see a strong piece of energy come diving into the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Allan Huffman thinks there is potential for severe weather next Wednesday. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/severe-weather-a-concern-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Huge warming wave on the Euro concerning the strat forecasts in the next 5-10 days. Technically a SSW is defined as a reversal of mean zonal mean winds at 60N and 10 hPa (from westerly to easterly).Not quite there yet but getting closer.If things keep progressing as they have been lately I'd say a SSW is immenient.But I still think the pattern changes some even if you don't get to these levels anyway. When/if it happens you still need to see where things set up after the shakeup. Carry on. I thnk the wheels have already been set in motion for a big change and if the above happens, it can't hurt any. The good news is the ECMWF seeing the changes, well in fact they began to be seen by GFS over a week ago maybe 2 weeks ago now, but its getting into ECMs time range now, so hopefully we keep both models on board. I haven't had time to look at much since a couple days ago , but I saw some runs that had a lot of ridging at the poles, and hints at neg NAO. Either way, the cold should get dislodged and in a big, big way. The sky's the limit though on exactly where it dumps into. Thats why the placement and configuration of the ridging is so critical. That will determine if it goes west first, central or eastern. We'll start to get an idea soon I think. BTW, having trouble getting on the NCEP site today, its being excruciatingly slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Each run of the GFS has been strengthing this ULL a bit. Even though there is not "cold air" source to feed this low it can produce it's old cold air. The latest gfs now depicts a 540 close contour over AL and GA which is the strongest it has shown yet. Yesterday it was 546 or 552. The result of that is that there is now a pocket of 0 850's with the core. This is still a long ways out but at this point it looks interesting. What I personally want to see is there to be a 534 closed contour over AL/GA for this to get more interesting. The GFS does have this thing strengthing as it moves west to east which is similar to what it did with our first ULL back in early December or late November that gave snow to Memphis and parts of N AL/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol mega blizzard at 384...typical GFS when it's cold it's dry then goes back to seasonal only to pop a giant storm at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 A good run at 5h. It evolves pretty nicely intoa very active, wintry pattern overall, with increasing ridginess that starts in Alaska/eastern Siberia and grows straight across the poles to the Scandinavian ridge and maybe parts of Greenland. This basicaly keeps troughing in the East and northeast with systems cutting under the cold dome in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 At hours 96-160 the bowling ball just sits over the southeast. That's a long friggin' time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 My post was more in jest than anything else, sorry..........thought the haha conveyed that. With the trough where it is around the 180 mark, I'd love to see a strong piece of energy come diving into the base of the trough. haha no worries, I'm a work so I'm skimming over things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 To get the best chances of cold and precipitation at our latitudes, this type of look will definitely help. It used to be on the 384 GFS and has been progressing its way up, now its around day 10 when the good blocking begins. Still no strong -NAO tha I can see but I haven't studied the whole run that much, but now it's in a realistic time frame, pluse good PNA at times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even if it depicts 850 temps just above freezing could it still be cold enough aloft to be snow under the core? Each run of the GFS has been strengthing this ULL a bit. Even though there is not "cold air" source to feed this low it can produce it's old cold air. The latest gfs now depicts a 540 close contour over AL and GA which is the strongest it has shown yet. Yesterday it was 546 or 552. The result of that is that there is now a pocket of 0 850's with the core. This is still a long ways out but at this point it looks interesting. What I personally want to see is there to be a 534 closed contour over AL/GA for this to get more interesting. The GFS does have this thing strengthing as it moves west to east which is similar to what it did with our first ULL back in early December or late November that gave snow to Memphis and parts of N AL/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even if it depicts 850 temps just above freezing could it still be cold enough aloft to be snow under the core? It could but I would think it would need to be a little stronger, similar to the last one that came through. I'd want 3-5 contours myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It could but I would think it would need to be a little stronger, similar to the last one that came through. I'd want 3-5 contours myself. I agree, I liked that it had trended stronger this run. Maybe we could get lucky. Northern miss sure has this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even if it depicts 850 temps just above freezing could it still be cold enough aloft to be snow under the core? Yes...the boundary layer is usally the issue with ULL. Unless you live at 4k feet. LOL. It could but I would think it would need to be a little stronger, similar to the last one that came through. I'd want 3-5 contours myself. The number of contours isn't as important as the heights. 534 closed contour is typically colder than 540 closed contour. The lower the 500mb level at the center of the core the colder it usually is at the surface. But if you can get more closed contours and low heights at the center then all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 weenie overload! Crashing the servers. The good news is the ECMWF seeing the changes, well in fact they began to be seen by GFS over a week ago maybe 2 weeks ago now, but its getting into ECMs time range now, so hopefully we keep both models on board. I haven't had time to look at much since a couple days ago , but I saw some runs that had a lot of ridging at the poles, and hints at neg NAO. Either way, the cold should get dislodged and in a big, big way. The sky's the limit though on exactly where it dumps into. Thats why the placement and configuration of the ridging is so critical. That will determine if it goes west first, central or eastern. We'll start to get an idea soon I think. BTW, having trouble getting on the NCEP site today, its being excruciatingly slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Yes...the boundary layer is usally the issue with ULL. Unless you live at 4k feet. LOL. The number of contours isn't as important as the heights. 534 closed contour is typically colder than 540 closed contour. The lower the 500mb level at the center of the core the colder it usually is at the surface. Correct, my point in lay terms was that it indeed needed to be stronger and generally colder before that would occur. I need to be more clear! And generally the tighter it's wound up (more contours) the stronger and colder it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 lol mega blizzard at 384...typical GFS when it's cold it's dry then goes back to seasonal only to pop a giant storm at the very end. Well, at least it is bringing the gulf back into play lately. If I get a huge fantasy storm I want it gulf centered. Don't want no clipper flizzard... I want gulf bombs every few days or so, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 No only 2500' plenty of 5000' peaks within a few min drive. If it worth it I would travel. But i will take my chance with a strong upper low anytime in January. Yes...the boundary layer is usally the issue with ULL. Unless you live at 4k feet. LOL. The number of contours isn't as important as the heights. 534 closed contour is typically colder than 540 closed contour. The lower the 500mb level at the center of the core the colder it usually is at the surface. But if you can get more closed contours and low heights at the center then all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.