chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ok guys..just got home from work with a fresh bottle of jim...This is where I usually spend the next 2 hours reviewing todays models and catching up on reading..before I do this tonight..I'm just asking for someone to say either good or bad...so I know how much jim to down before I open the models.... Good signs of fun brewing in the longer range, but nothing wonderfully fantastic that's going to bury your backyard tomorrow. How much does that translate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ok guys..just got home from work with a fresh bottle of jim...This is where I usually spend the next 2 hours reviewing todays models and catching up on reading..before I do this tonight..I'm just asking for someone to say either good or bad...so I know how much jim to down before I open the models.... Don't need that but anyway you will like it eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Good signs of fun brewing in the longer range, but nothing wonderfully fantastic that's going to bury your backyard tomorrow. How much does that translate to? was gonna be a couple of shots till I cheated and glanced at 12z/18z gfs and our 1/12 storm is back to an apps runner..Good news of course is that we still have 8 days and the odd's of this seasons GFS being correct from 8 days out..hahahahahaha...still think we have a shot with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah, get that bad boy to phase near Jacksonville with some of those -30 850s just to the north....then crawl up the coast for a nice 48 hr period of heavy snow. Sorry - phase about 100 - 200 miles south of JAX so I can see a flurry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Quite the stout SE ridge. Sure it is long range GFS but I do believe this pattern change is going to happen. Check out these 2m temps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well, we have fantasy cold after the present air mass leaves, and fantasy rain. The models are so fickle I can't trust them beyond a few days, and the next thing to look at is a rain event that has been fizzling the closer we get to it. Heaven help me, but I'm starting to think Brick ....oh, help, I'm fighting it...fighting... might be right and it is always a week away for the goodies, lol. Meanwhile I'm 8 days away from the last rain, I'm in a serious drought, and I've got wonderful cold air over me, which always means it is way, way dry. If the motherload of the cold air of the centuries comes down on us...where the heck is the rain coming from? Sure Joe and Frosty and others will wring out some moisture via the mountains, but what about us flatlanders? We need a strong southern stream that is bringing in the goods every 3/4 days ...and, and...able to fight suppression for some over running, or we get squat for all the maybe cold. And if we look into fantasy land next week..we have a ULL, which could go anywhere! Granted it would be some nice rain if it came this way, but I can't believe in it until Mon. or so. Whose is to say it won't wimp out like the the upcoming maybe disorganized maybe showers that use to be a pretty big storm some days back. Pattern, patterns, patterns ....we need some trustworthy patterns. And the only one I've got is 8 days of dry with warm, cold, warm. Need this weekend to over perform... then we have a start, and if the ULL comes this way....well, Tinkerbell might get to live T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, we have fantasy cold after the present air mass leaves, and fantasy rain. The models are so fickle I can't trust them beyond a few days, and the next thing to look at is a rain event that has been fizzling the closer we get to it. Heaven help me, but I'm starting to think Brick ....oh, help, I'm fighting it...fighting... might be right and it is always a week away for the goodies, lol. Meanwhile I'm 8 days away from the last rain, I'm in a serious drought, and I've got wonderful cold air over me, which always means it is way, way dry. If the motherload of the cold air of the centuries comes down on us...where the heck is the rain coming from? Sure Joe and Frosty and others will wring out some moisture via the mountains, but what about us flatlanders? We need a strong southern stream that is bringing in the goods every 3/4 days ...and, and...able to fight suppression for some over running, or we get squat for all the maybe cold. And if we look into fantasy land next week..we have a ULL, which could go anywhere! Granted it would be some nice rain if it came this way, but I can't believe in it until Mon. or so. Whose is to say it won't wimp out like the the upcoming maybe disorganized maybe showers that use to be a pretty big storm some days back. Pattern, patterns, patterns ....we need some trustworthy patterns. And the only one I've got is 8 days of dry with warm, cold, warm. Need this weekend to over perform... then we have a start, and if the ULL comes this way....well, Tinkerbell might get to live T The only drought I'm in right now is a snow drought...we're above on rainfall, which is good, but then I'm 100 miles away from you! I agree with your thoughts of patterns...yes, we need them. And I really hope Tinkerbell gets to live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Stop, just stop. Euro this, Euro that. Euro is #1. All hail the mighty Euro. Pathetic. Do you people know what you waste hours looking at? Has anyone ever seen the Euro? No. It's kind of like God. We've never seen it but we know its there. Well brace yourselves because I am about to blow the lid off of this Euro fascination crap. At great personal risk to myself and to my family I have obtained the first, and as far as I know the only, photo of the Euro model actually forecasting the weather. Scroll down and examine the photo closely and then decide if you really want to waste a high percentage of your life waiting for and analyzing the mighty Euro. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Damn weather nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 0Z runs tonight might really start to get our attention for the long range....if this pattern switches as it appears one thing to keep in mind will be the lack of picking up on a CAD event in long range. Will have to let the experts see the signs of that happening b/c it's usually missed until 120hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Stop, just stop. Euro this, Euro that. Euro is #1. All hail the mighty Euro. Pathetic. Do you people know what you waste hours looking at? Has anyone ever seen the Euro? No. It's kind of like God. We've never seen it but we know its there. Well brace yourselves because I am about to blow the lid off of this Euro fascination crap. At great personal risk to myself and to my family I have obtained the first, and as far as I know the only, photo of the Euro model actually forecasting the weather. Scroll down and examine the photo closely and then decide if you really want to waste a high percentage of your life waiting for and analyzing the mighty Euro. Damn weather nerds. Simply, fantastic! Well done, sir. Edit: Time to update the sig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Sure it is long range GFS but I do believe this pattern change is going to happen. Check out these 2m temps showing up. That's the "apparent temp" map which is basically the wind chill map. There is an option on that site for just 2m temps and not 2m apparent temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 what is this "euro" you speak of? Stop, just stop. Euro this, Euro that. Euro is #1. All hail the mighty Euro. Pathetic. Do you people know what you waste hours looking at? Has anyone ever seen the Euro? No. It's kind of like God. We've never seen it but we know its there. Well brace yourselves because I am about to blow the lid off of this Euro fascination crap. At great personal risk to myself and to my family I have obtained the first, and as far as I know the only, photo of the Euro model actually forecasting the weather. Scroll down and examine the photo closely and then decide if you really want to waste a high percentage of your life waiting for and analyzing the mighty Euro. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Damn weather nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's the "apparent temp" map which is basically the wind chill map. There is an option on that site for just 2m temps and not 2m apparent temps. yep the actual 2m surface temps are still cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The cold still isn't in the SE on that 1-20-12 map? Nice 2m temps, but looks held back from points SE. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The cold still isn't in the SE on that 1-20-12 map? Nice 2m temps, but looks held back from points SE. Am I missing something? It's not, luckily the 18z GFS ENS looks a whole lot better.... 18z Op 18z Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The cold still isn't in the SE on that 1-20-12 map? Nice 2m temps, but looks held back from points SE. Am I missing something? haha I'm wondering too...372hr 2m temps from the GFS mean what exactly? I think the OP's point was that there is extreme cold diving in the US and that it's a good sign on the LR, whether it's in the SE at that hr or not. That cold could be anywhere come 372hrs from now, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 12z Euro has -NAO around 13/14th of January, might be a period to watch for something. 18z GFS has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NAO forecast to go negative around the time of the 12/13th system which currently is looking like an apps runner...A few in here have had our eyes on this time frame...foothills has mentioned it over the last several days...Maybe I'm to the point that hope is diluting rationality? There is certainly no model support to back me up so maybe I've just lost it? Just really hanging on to the 11th-16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That's the "apparent temp" map which is basically the wind chill map. There is an option on that site for just 2m temps and not 2m apparent temps. Thanks! I didn't even catch that. But still, -40 wind chills whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thanks! I didn't even catch that. But still, -40 wind chills whew. Yes indeed it is. I don't know why they put the apparent temp map at the top of the list and the standard 2m temp way down the list. Seems like it should be the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The cold still isn't in the SE on that 1-20-12 map? Nice 2m temps, but looks held back from points SE. Am I missing something? Im no Met but i believe its more about the change in pattern, forecast -NAO around that time with blocking and we will have something to really track. As most have said mid/late Jan in\through Feb could be awesome as far as winter wx goes with this change in pattern. Just seeing signs of that in long range gets us razzled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 NAO forecast to go negative around the time of the 12/13th system which currently is looking like an apps runner...A few in here have had our eyes on this time frame...foothills has mentioned it over the last several days...Maybe I'm to the point that hope is diluting rationality? There is certainly no model support to back me up so maybe I've just lost it? Just really hanging on to the 11th-16th The system that is looking like an apps runner is around 1/9 or 1/10 time frame. After that system makes it's way north, we're hoping that storm will help bring down some artic air to the eastern conus. Imo the system that needs to be watched is the s/w sliding down on the backside of the trough around hr 192 on the 18z gfs. It will be making it's way east at the same time the NAO is proposed to go negative. If this s/w continues to show up in future runs this is a time frame I'll be looking at. Could be nothing but we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The system that is looking like an apps runner is around 1/9 or 1/10 time frame. After that system makes it's way north, we're hoping that storm will help bring down some artic air to the eastern conus. Imo the system that needs to be watched is the s/w sliding down on the backside of the trough around hr 192 on the 18z gfs. It will be making it's way east at the same time the NAO is proposed to go negative. If this s/w continues to show up in future runs this is a time frame I'll be looking at. Could be nothing but we'll have to wait and see. Thank you, I had wrong dates..always apreciate your thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thank you, I had wrong dates..always apreciate your thinking! No problem. There's a lot of "ifs" in the above also. Like if we actually get a west based -NAO and if that s/w continues to appear. Another thing is if we do get the -NAO and if the s/w continues to show up on model runs, with the surge of cold air and -NAO it could be too far south. On the 18z gfs this s/w was to the south and east. Just goes to show how everything has to work out for us in the southeast to get a snowstorm. But "if" we can get the right track w/ one of these s/w and the cold air in place, we could have a nice snowstorm at some point. This is what Robert (Foothills) has been talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The 0z gfs wants to bring our bowling ball ULL east of the apps this run. Looks like it's going to go right over RDU at hr 171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The new GFS shows the closed low tracking right across the gulf coast at hour 150ish near Montgomery, AL. Lots of rain for all of us it seems from this storm that was the apps runner earlier today on other models. It has a much different look with a bowling ball moving due east from Texas. No cold air with this one but there is a sharp front pushing southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 GFS continues to advertise a good soaking for a lot in the SE for next week. I'll be interested to see if we actually do get into a different pattern after this next soaker comes through, or if we'll be stuck in this one for a little while longer. Sooner or later that NAO will go - neg and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That system just keeps on strengthening after departing from the Southeast into a 976mb low on the coast of Maine. Pretty impressive. Wondering if it becomes a 50/50 low later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wow, after the ULL passes to the north the gfs really wants to turn us cold. Strong push of cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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