BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I still wouldn't write off that storm next week for wintery precip, especially upper southeast. To early for specifics! Jmo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I like the looks of a lot of what the GFS Ensemble is showing in the medium and long range. Not a warm look at all. Also, cold/ winter weather fans have to like this look of this ..... I'm not sure that graph is accurate. The AO has been positive since December 21, 2011. The AO as of today is +.015116. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Definitely digging the look of things in the longer term. After going through this frustrating several weeks of attempting to get the cold and storminess to mingle with each other correctly, it's looking like that we will finally see such scenarios for the latter part of this month and through February. Signs are pointing toward a colder profile over much of the East with perhaps increased chances of seeing systems that may hold more promise for seeing anything wintry across the Southeast. It's unclear exactly how cold we will get or how stormy but prospect looks good to get into action of some sort for the second half of winter. If this is to be the future of the season, then I think a lot of us will be glad that we had the patience for this type of pattern to verify. I can't help but think that this is mimicking the winter of 1967-1968 in respect to temperatures where things became progressively colder after starting out with a December that averaged on the warm side and so it appears that way for this winter so far. With the +AO looking to finally shift toward negative, the NAO trending at least neutral or slightly negative, and at least some indication of western ridging (etc.), it's seemingly shaping up to be a great season during the second half. Definitely not a boring look ahead. Hopefully it all comes together correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The guys in the Stratospheric Warming thread we have in the main forums were bashing him for this alert. Could be some justified pessimism or maybe just some DT hate that this board loves to dish out from time to time. Alot of people here hate DT, I think they love to take a poke at him anytime they get the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 DT is just a kid at heart when it comes to Winter. I appreciate that about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ^ Why doesn't he post on message boards anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm not sure that graph is accurate. The AO has been positive since December 21, 2011. The AO as of today is +.015116. Which makes that graph inaccurate how exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ^ Why doesn't he post on message boards anymore? lolz because everytime he does it becomes a thread disaster and he ends up being banned. He actually came back for a short period last year. Those threads are full of hilarity and fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lolz because everytime he does it becomes a thread disaster and he ends up being banned. He actually came back for a short period last year. Those threads are full of hilarity and fail. I guess it got corrected, before it was negative and was basically flat lined for days in negative territory and showing the most current reading as negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ^ Why doesn't he post on message boards anymore? He was always getting into w/ somebody. He would get mad and leave for a while then come back. I think the last time was last year when he got mad at something Widremann said in the OT thread. Personally I enjoyed him when he posted here. I learned a lot from DT over the years. I still follow him on Twitter and FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 lolz because everytime he does it becomes a thread disaster and he ends up being banned. He actually came back for a short period last year. Those threads are full of hilarity and fail. Ahh, ok. I had a feeling it was something like that. I always enjoyed the decay of humanity in threads where he got on a roll. It was like watching a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 He was always getting into w/ somebody. He would get mad and leave for a while then come back. I think the last time was last year when he got mad at something Widremann said in the OT thread. Personally I enjoyed him when he posted here. I learned a lot from DT over the years. I still follow him on Twitter and FB. I always thought it was funny how he got so mad and offended all the time. But I agree, he knows his stuff pretty well. I follow his blog/website. He seems to be on board with a better 2nd half of Winter, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Starting to get very excited for mid-late january and february. Winter is starting to look like it may model 67-68. My winter forecast is not lost yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Woo getting lively on here. Well everything looks to be pointing out to a big pattern change and boy am i getting excited. There some good stuff being talked about across the forum and some good maps being posted that looks like we could be in for some major cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Woo getting lively on here. Well everything looks to be pointing out to a big pattern change and boy am i getting excited. There some good stuff being talked about across the forum and some good maps being posted that looks like we could be in for some major cold! Allow me take care of Brick's response for him. It's always just 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The mid-range system is likely to trend into an apps runner or ohio valley system. With no blocking and the mean ridge out west offshore, it will likely phase too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The mid-range system is likely to trend into an apps runner or ohio valley system. With no blocking and the mean ridge out west offshore, it will likely phase too far west. So if that happens would that pump up the SE ridge and everything would slide to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So if that happens would that pump up the SE ridge and everything would slide to the north. After the cutoff low cuts through the apps area.. the cold starts barreling down the plains per 18z GFS. Edit: Here's 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 After the cutoff low cuts through the apps area.. the cold starts barreling down the plains per 18z GFS. Not to mention when that cold air really gets in 18z is very close to popping something big...it's the 18z of course but interesting to see. For my money that would be the time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 After the cutoff low cuts through the apps area.. the cold starts barreling down the plains per 18z GFS. Edit: Here's 240. Thanks looks like a nice shot of cold air all the way down to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Not to mention when that cold air really gets in 18z is very close to popping something big...it's the 18z of course but interesting to see. For my money that would be the time frame to watch. Even after, check these 850's out. -30 entering the usa. edit.. even farther -33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Sure it is long range GFS but I do believe this pattern change is going to happen. Check out these 2m temps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Robert was rooting for stronger HP to drop out of Canada. Per 18z GFS at 276 hours -- does 1062mb do the trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Not to mention when that cold air really gets in 18z is very close to popping something big...it's the 18z of course but interesting to see. For my money that would be the time frame to watch. Yeah it ends up S and E but I agree, that's an interesting time frame. Get a piece of energy sliding down the backside of the trough like the 18z and it could lead to possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So if that happens would that pump up the SE ridge and everything would slide to the north. Everything, like from now on? Or just that system? If you're just talking about the same one Brandon was referring to, yeah, everything is gonna slide north, which has got more to do with the timing of the phase than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's going to be interesting to see what happens after such a +AO for months.There has been tremendous cold air build up over the northern latitudes as a result. This flip to a -AO will allow that bottled up air to explode south. There will likely be some insane air masses over canada/northern CONUS by mid-January. Could set us up for a CAD scenario. Sure it is long range GFS but I do believe this pattern change is going to happen. Check out these 2m temps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Not to mention when that cold air really gets in 18z is very close to popping something big...it's the 18z of course but interesting to see. For my money that would be the time frame to watch. I kinda see what you mean man, at hour 240 it looks as though something could pop. The 500mb depiction is kinda weird, almost looks like one piece of northern stream energy catches up to another one. But I'm probably way off base with my interpretation. Other than that the 18Z GFS is kinda meh to me, the mid-range system is an apps runner with virtually no cold where it is needed, the cold at hour 240 is transitory and the cold at the far long range is setup in the Montana/Dakota region and kinda parks itself there. Definitely a pattern change but perhaps not one the east coast was exactly hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Everything, like from now on? Or just that system? If you're just talking about the same one Brandon was referring to, yeah, everything is gonna slide north, which has got more to do with the timing of the phase than anything else. It would be nice if it just stalled on the gulf coast for a few days. At least until the northern strean dropped In to phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It would be nice if it just stalled on the gulf coast for a few days. At least until the northern strean dropped In to phase with it. Yeah, get that bad boy to phase near Jacksonville with some of those -30 850s just to the north....then crawl up the coast for a nice 48 hr period of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ok guys..just got home from work with a fresh bottle of jim...This is where I usually spend the next 2 hours reviewing todays models and catching up on reading..before I do this tonight..I'm just asking for someone to say either good or bad...so I know how much jim to down before I open the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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