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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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That kind of a look extrapolated out would probably yield a 2-4 or 3-6 type of event. if it snowed in western/middle/and parts of east TN, and some of Kentucky, I'd argue that it was both major (we are in the south after all) and widespread.

Now, for the Carolinas, not so much. That map doesn't look good at all for them with what WOW is talking about and I can see his point easily for NC.

But from Johnson City, TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can to Memphis. The state of Tennessee isn't wide, but it's extremely long. I would say hitting 1/2 our state is widespread in my book, but not everyone would share my definition.

It's all good though, that's what makes this weather board great.

Spent my whole life in Nashville or Knoxville ('55 - '81) and can vouch for that. Quite a different range of topography there and you can get almost any kind of weather.

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Love the southeast ridge :axe: . Classic La Nina. My biggest fear is cold comes in but the SE ridge is constant which will give the OV a great winter. We have to have a -NAO with this pattern otherwise we will get inland cutters. So yes the pattern looks better with the -AO for cold and even snow but not for the SE.

The south is going to be on the wrong side of this Low Pressure it seems. Too bad too because it is at 1000mb on this image but we are all on the east or SE side of it for the moment.

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The south is going to be on the wrong side of this Low Pressure it seems. Too bad too because it is at 1000mb on this image but we are all on the east or SE side of it for the moment.

998mb to be exact, something to watch though as a lot can change per where this low will move...I like the looks of hr192, not necessarly for us but in general... huge cold diving in along with it...which is what we need in the SE for anything but RN.

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

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There seems to be no doubt that the general pattern is changing, and at a good time for us in the southland. Hopefully we can get something to lock later this month into February. The Euro is just one of many solutions that will change again. It's bias is to hold energy back so while a track into the OH valley is possible, it's probably only slightly more likely than the CMC at this point. We really need to get within 100 hours to have a better understanding.

Either way, maybe this is the low that bombs out and becomes our 50/50 for what comes behind it.

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is it splitting the pv?

yep.. here comes the cold air..

At 240, the PV is split (finally!) with ridging over the North central Atlantic on into Greenland. This is consistent with the past few runs regarding the pattern change. Strong PV over Quebec.

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From DT

*** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb

30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1

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Wicked cold... Big High Pressure in the heartland and another piece of southern energy/cutoff near Southern California. Pattern deffinitly looks better than what we have seen.

Shift the PV over central Canada to the east, the HP could move up to the north, and we would be digging out.

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From DT

*** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb

30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1

The guys in the Stratospheric Warming thread we have in the main forums were bashing him for this alert. Could be some justified pessimism or maybe just some DT hate that this board loves to dish out from time to time.

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Yep, the -AO looks great, we just need to shift that vortex to the east some and than we would be cooking. I would guess the look at 240 5h could be considered a "east based" NAO, which is great for OV.

I'm not too worried with that. We will just have to see how short lived this cold will be, I think we hope for something as it's breaking down into something more seasonal for this month. We'll need to get the timing right.

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The guys in the Stratospheric Warming thread we have in the main forums were bashing him for this alert. Could be some justified pessimism or maybe just some DT hate that this board loves to dish out from time to time.

They probably wouldn't make fun of him if he didn't do that goofy warning $h1t. Haha if he just said, Euro mean looks good for us because it does xyz he would probably be taken more serious.

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Whether you like him or not... he's not the only one seeing things. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that changes are beginning to take place, all the signs are beginning to show their hand. I think we're in for a very exciting 6-8 weeks of weather watching.

I agree. Just saw a squirrel with a load of nuts and a "Bahamas or bust" sign!

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Whether you like him or not... he's not the only one seeing things. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that changes are beginning to take place, all the signs are beginning to show their hand. I think we're in for a very exciting 6-8 weeks of weather watching.

We might also get lucky and get a well timed storm that hits right as the pattern has changed. So this weekends runs might get a little interesting.

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