strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Per lookouts request! GO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mark bringer of the mojo! I like this. Let's see what the 12z has in store for us. I'm guessing GFS gets stronger with the low and really makes us happy today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I have a good feeling about February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Could a mod move post 1694 from Robert to this thread? It was one of the last posts on the maxed out thread we just closed, but it would be great if that were here instead of getting lost in a dead thread that not everyone will see. Who knows if it plays out this way, but I could certainly see a blend of the two (EURO and GFS). GFS is too many times too progressive, and the EURO has a bias for holding energy back. I would think a solution in b/w the two could be a good snow for someone on the northwest side of the track. Time will tell but it's nice to have something to track on the models and before truncation (GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here is what Robert had to say: the ecmwf run was pretty impressive in my opinion. Taken into account its biases, here's what I think it shows. First atleast its' in the ballpark of GFS through 120 hr or so, then the changes begin. Both split the stream, and the lakes wave allows cold air to press into Tenn Valley to Carolinas, and both show the weak 1020 to 1024 high. But Ecm. thins out the cold air quickly but doesn't get all that warm. It has a new Lakes wave come in that pushes out the high pressure to the north, but GFS maintains it before cutting off a system, and GFS has a bigger intrusion of cold further west and south, before it cuts the system off. ECMWF cuts off further west and has less cold that gets infused. However both models have grown colder, and pushed colder further south. There's no way to know yet if either model is accurate yet, as either solution could easily occur (or none). Yesterdays run had the day 10 system phasing with the Gulf storm as it pulled north, but last nights run keeps the streams just separate to prevent a major bombing out, instead it runs the bowling ball cutoff from the Gulf coast to up the east coast as a huge cold rainmaker, taken literally. However that track is climo for a major interior southeast snowstorm, and is already close to cold enough verbatim on ECMWF for Southern Appalachian Major Snowfall. It shows 850 temps of 0 to +4 with pockets of sub zero on the nw side of the low, where the heavy precip is. The runs next few days should spell out how much cold gets pushed south, and how the evolution of any storm goes. Could be there is only a sheared out wave and the Ecm is overdoing the cutoff. Or could be a blend of GFS/ECMWF type of system, which would be the Southeast first widespread winter storm. Plenty of chances and yet another fun storm to follow, this time with cold air perilously close. All models are showing yet another cold blast following the storm and keep western ridging for a very long time. So much for the warm January idea. And its pretty neat to see 3 and 4 contour cutoffs modeled travelling along the Gulf coast in January...gives my earlier ideas a leg to stand on (maybe) . We need as much cold to work in before any system develops and dont' want a massive deep system or it pulls in too much warmth...a fine line there. 06 z GFS develops some Alaska blocking at 288 (and cross polar flow) ...this is the first run that brings it closer, but its still not in the 10 day window. Also has a large arctic outbreak just after our Gulf storm next week, so it has a very cold airmass dumping into the country, and the beginning stages of another one around or after the 288 Alaskan ridge. Again , where the sets up exactly means everything on where the cold and warmth lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The GFS ensemble runs have looked better for cold than the OP run, in the long range. This looks good to me, for cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Checking some of the other model runs I saw the Nogaps sent a low into Tennessee at 144, but it did show the cold air connected with a developing system, and a 1029 H in southeast Canada. Looks to me like there are a couple of shortwaves being keyed on here, and some models want to enhance the first one, some the second one. If we can get the first one to develop and take a southerly track (without a -NAO this might be difficult), I think the upper mid-south and southern apps might have something to watch here as cold-ENOUGH air will be lurking around, waiting to be drawn into a developing storm. There will be HIGH bust potential on any storm, even as close as three to four days away IMO. It's a crazy flow and it seems that every shortwave carries potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think we're seeing the models struggling right now because we're getting ready for a big change and they don't handle transitions very well. I'm feeling better and better about our upcoming chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think we're seeing the models struggling right now because we're getting ready for a big change and they don't handle transitions very well. I'm feeling better and better about our upcoming chances. I think you are right. Something big is in the making with the pattern changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 What ever it takes man.... Looking for to some great disco folks ! Mark bringer of the mojo! I like this. Let's see what the 12z has in store for us. I'm guessing GFS gets stronger with the low and really makes us happy today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hard to believe a cut off taking the track the Euro depicts ... lN JANUARY ... would not give somebody a big snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hard to believe a cut off taking the track the Euro depicts ... lN JANUARY ... would not give somebody a big snowfall. Yea when I looked at the Euro last night I was surprised more people weren't excited around here. Oh well 12z should be running soon so let's hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think you are right. Something big is in the making with the pattern changing. Yeah, but not in my back yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yea when I looked at the Euro last night I was surprised more people weren't excited around here. Oh well 12z should be running soon so let's hope for the best. If I lived in Boone and TN I would have loved the Euro run, even TN it's to warm per this run. The EURO was a App mountains special. It sucked lemons for our area's, but it would be a great rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If I lived in Boone and TN I would have loved the Euro run, even TN it's to warm per this run. The EURO was a App mountains special. It sucked lemons for our area's, but it would be a great rain. I'll take a chance on a ULL especially given it's hard to correctly track it. The fact that it has it that far south is pretty hopeful if that were to pan out. All MBY would need is for it to track just a little further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well who really noes. Things may work out for people down east. Never no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Why are these so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I guess different formula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I have a good feeling about February! Isn't that what people said in December about January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Isn't that what people said in December about January? Maybe CR meant Feb 2013? JB stated a El Nino in store for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well, I guess people are getting excited and saying things are looking better for snow in January. But I have seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Isn't that what people said in December about January? lol Brick you are out of control. Yes that is what they said and we now have hope in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hard to believe a cut off taking the track the Euro depicts ... lN JANUARY ... would not give somebody a big snowfall. I'm having a hard time getting excited over the Euro's depiction, outside of the higher elevations. It's gonna take more than a southern tracking ULL even in January. The northern stream and subsequent cold air is gone, with no mechanism to deliver it here. Euro isn't even close to a Winter storm. It might as well be mid April with the depiction it's showing....unless I'm looking at another cached view, which is entirely possible. That's only the Euro, though. The GFS is much better, even though the cold is still sort of marginal. What we're going to need to see is high pressure to the north become stronger and remain in a favorable position. If we don't see that develop in a more robust fashion, then we'll enjoy yet another rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm having a hard time getting excited over the Euro's depiction, outside of the higher elevations. It's gonna take more than a southern tracking ULL even in January. The northern stream and subsequent cold air is gone, with no mechanism to deliver it here. Euro isn't even close to a Winter storm. It might as well be mid April with the depiction it's showing....unless I'm looking at another cached view, which is entirely possible. That's only the Euro, though. The GFS is much better, even though the cold is still sort of marginal. What we're going to need to see is high pressure to the north become stronger and remain in a favorable position. If we don't see that develop in a more robust fashion, then we'll enjoy yet another rainstorm. I'm right with you Cold R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm having a hard time getting excited over the Euro's depiction, outside of the higher elevations. It's gonna take more than a southern tracking ULL even in January. The northern stream and subsequent cold air is gone, with no mechanism to deliver it here. Euro isn't even close to a Winter storm. It might as well be mid April with the depiction it's showing....unless I'm looking at another cached view, which is entirely possible. That's only the Euro, though. The GFS is much better, even though the cold is still sort of marginal. What we're going to need to see is high pressure to the north become stronger and remain in a favorable position. If we don't see that develop in a more robust fashion, then we'll enjoy yet another rainstorm. Obviously I would prefer the GFS and want it to bomb out...but saying there is no cold air...doesn't the ULL/cutoff produce it's own cold air? Now I know we need to be on the northwest side to get the benefits but the 00z Euro was pretty south with it. So that's why I was kind of excited. It's a lottery if it ends up with the Euro solution as to who gets what but it's still there as a chance and a March 2009 redux would be just fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like GFS is a tad faster with our first wave out to 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Question for the mets. Doesn't the Euro seem to always run a little warm in the long range when it comes to 850 and surface temps in this type of situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Obviously I would prefer the GFS and want it to bomb out...but saying there is no cold air...doesn't the ULL/cutoff produce it's own cold air? Now I know we need to be on the northwest side to get the benefits but the 00z Euro was pretty south with it. So that's why I was kind of excited. It's a lottery if it ends up with the Euro solution as to who gets what but it's still there as a chance and a March 2009 redux would be just fine with me. Yeah, it would make it's own cold, and like you pointed out, you'd want it to go south of you to have a chance. I don't have access to the Euro's surface temps, but given the overall look, I'd think they'd be too warm. I think that's where the problem would be, even with the low you the south of your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The good news is the GFS brings the lakes wave further south, and helps pull cold air further south this run, but the bad news might be its digging the Rockies wave so far west it might cut off. We don't really want that , you need to see it dig toward Texas and keep rolling via the southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The good news is the GFS brings the lakes wave further south, and helps pull cold air further south this run, but the bad news might be its digging the Rockies wave so far west it might cut off. We don't really want that , you need to see it dig toward Texas and keep rolling via the southern route. Yeah it does not look like the timing and location is going to workout this run, let's see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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