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January Obs/Short Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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haven't been reading much so maybe it's been mentioned (possibly 100x the way this winter has gone!) already that the GFS had the 850line droping south of us with so light qpf today into tonight fwiw

While true, in this particular case the 850mb temps aren't particularly useful for today/tonight since the cloud layer is actually below the 850mb level. The 925mb temp will be the thing to watch in the short term. GFS has the 925mb temp warming to above freezing for most of the region (outside of the mountains) by around midnight.

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Freezing rain advisory up for the area.

Freezing Rain Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

126 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

MDZ003>006-009-010-VAZ025>031-040-042-501-503-504-WVZ052-053-505-

506-230230-

/O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0001.120122T2100Z-120123T1400Z/

WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-

HOWARD-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-

CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-

EASTERN HIGHLAND-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-WESTERN PENDLETON-

EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...

WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...

HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...CIRCLEVILLE...

FRANKLIN

126 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM

EST MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS....LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS AND ELEVATED SURFACES WILL

MAKE TRAVELING HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

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10 days back the long range (I know it is fantasy) was for possible 70+ for the high this weekend. The reality of cold, snow, ice, flurries, sleet, freezing rain, freezing mist, freezing fog, etc. is wonderful.

not that it matter but i think this was the beginning of the warm up and more like 50s in the long range

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