Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 \ Did the euro ever show the pattern change? I don't see beyond day 10 but think the weeklies have been warm for wahile based on Adam's posts. i dont think so. to be fair he talks about more than just the euro. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/pamela-anderson-comes-a-knockin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 WXRISK has thrown in the towel...............FWIW He either hits a home run (Irene) or strikes out. He doesn't play small ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I have my 4 windows down and sunroof open as i pass the tidal basinon my way home. It's 20 Jan, 61F at 5pm and that's just wrong. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 i dont think so. to be fair he talks about more than just the euro. http://www.wxrisk.co...omes-a-knockin/ It was an interesting mia culpa. The pattern certainly looks like it is reverting back to a positive epo on euro ens which look pretty bad thru 240 hrs. It's funny how he bought the ssw event coming and now he is saying how in the past he has been a skeptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HRRR gets just a bit better with each run. I don't know how much to trust it though. I've been watching it, too... could certainly believe some snowfall in the "thump" period as it switches over from rain, but accumulation is probably overdone east of the mountain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 that short wave is really suckin' in the moisture from pretty far south http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 that short wave is really suckin' in the moisture from pretty far south http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html we at least deserve a fighting chance mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 that short wave is really suckin' in the moisture from pretty far south http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html More rain for us yay . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It was an interesting mia culpa. The pattern certainly looks like it is reverting back to a positive epo on euro ens which look pretty bad thru 240 hrs. It's funny how he bought the ssw event coming and now he is saying how in the past he has been a skeptic. Ha yeah I was tempted to try to go find those so called discussions of the past but sounds like a waste of time. If the AK super low comes back as it looks might be time to write it all off. But soon is time to root on spring anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Guys, have there been any noteable post frontal snows in this area? This type of setup? Is it the mountains that keep us from getting the snows like, say, Ky is getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Theres a nice squall line in WV shooting off some lightning associated with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Guys, have there been any noteable post frontal snows in this area? This type of setup? Is it the mountains that keep us from getting the snows like, say, Ky is getting? Not this same setup- but four fairly recent ones: 3/8/95 11/11/95 3/4/99 3/8/05 All were 1-4" in the suburbs, and all were rain/thunderstorm flips to snow with no break in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 WXRISK has thrown in the towel...............FWIW New Forecast, SAME 20 YEAR OLD POOP CULTURE REFERENCE!!!!!! Thats part of the fun of this winter is watching pro mets break down, esp DT and Tip. Yes poop culture wasd a joke. http://www.wxrisk.com/category/winter-2011-12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not this same setup- but four fairly recent ones: 3/8/95 11/11/95 3/4/99 3/8/05 All were 1-4" in the suburbs, and all were rain/thunderstorm flips to snow with no break in precip. Seem to be early or late winter oriented. I remember the 95 event probably as much as any event ever. I lived in swva at the time and that front arrived in the morning of 3/7. I suppose it came through up here that night/early morning on the 8th. It wasn't even supposed to snow. I believe the forecast was rain ending as flurries. When I went to school that day, it was about 40 and raining. By 9:00 it was snowing heavily. I was giving a test that day and was having a hard time keeping the kids on task. They were taking their test and I had my head down working on some papers, and all of a sudden there was a bright flash that got everyones attention. We all looked up and about that time, boom. This was the first and only time I've ever seen thundersnow. This wasn't every now and then either. This was like a thunderstorm. That's when the snow became ridiculously heavy. We had parents everywhere picking up their kids. We dismissed at 11, but the state police turned our buses around. That's some pretty bad roads. We had to stay with the kids, of course. We finally had them all gone by about 5 o'clock. Ended up with about 7 inches. This was a Tuesday, IIRC. By Friday, the temps were in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 No idea if it is reliable, but the HRRR has been getting slowly better all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Seem to be early or late winter oriented. I remember the 95 event probably as much as any event ever. I lived in swva at the time and that front arrived in the morning of 3/7. I suppose it came through up here that night/early morning on the 8th. It wasn't even supposed to snow. I believe the forecast was rain ending as flurries. When I went to school that day, it was about 40 and raining. By 9:00 it was snowing heavily. I was giving a test that day and was having a hard time keeping the kids on task. They were taking their test and I had my head down working on some papers, and all of a sudden there was a bright flash that got everyones attention. We all looked up and about that time, boom. This was the first and only time I've ever seen thundersnow. This wasn't every now and then either. This was like a thunderstorm. That's when the snow became ridiculously heavy. We had parents everywhere picking up their kids. We dismissed at 11, but the state police turned our buses around. That's some pretty bad roads. We had to stay with the kids, of course. We finally had them all gone by about 5 o'clock. Ended up with about 7 inches. This was a Tuesday, IIRC. By Friday, the temps were in the 70's. When I got home from work, I told my wife what tonight's weather would be, and she said that sounded like March weather. The front in '95 dropped temps 22-25 degrees in a two hour period when it passed. Tonight we're looking at 20 degrees in 6 hours, which is similar to the other dates gymengineer cited. We had an early dismissal from school in, I believe Jan `78, and as we left the school it was in the upper 40's and sunny skies. We couldn't figure out why we were leaving. The superintendant had got a forecast for 50 mph winds, plummeting temps and accumulating snow before the end of the school day and made the call. That front was a great one in Cumberland. Some of the most ominous skies I ever saw. I'll have to look for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 No idea if it is reliable, but the HRRR has been getting slowly better all afternoon. If it is snowing in Kentucky, it will snow in Northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If it is snowing in Kentucky, it will snow in Northern Virginia. Rule 969 in the weenie handbook written by Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 After some light rain late afternoon and evening, skies are starry here now. This is allowing a fog to form, and a nice temp drop. Already lost 8 degrees from the high of 53. If it can get into the lower 40's, maybe the front can do the rest for a changeover later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Any observations from Davis? Wondering if Whitegrass will be skiable this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Any observations from Davis? Wondering if Whitegrass will be skiable this weekend. Upper 30s and light rain now. Snow should be here in an hour or two. I'm guessing 5-10" through Saturday morning, and frigid. Whitegrass will probably be fully open with thin cover if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 After some light rain late afternoon and evening, skies are starry here now. This is allowing a fog to form, and a nice temp drop. Already lost 8 degrees from the high of 53. If it can get into the lower 40's, maybe the front can do the rest for a changeover later. Made it down to 40 before the rain moved back in. Now back up to 43 with the warming ahead of the front. At this point looking at radar, I'll be happy with the high wind gusts and a blustery flurry in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Upper 30s and light rain now. Snow should be here in an hour or two. I'm guessing 5-10" through Saturday morning, and frigid. Whitegrass will probably be fully open with thin cover if that comes to fruition. davis reporting 34.4 so must be in change over now, good luck hope forecast busts low and you get 12" plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 davis reporting 34.4 so must be in change over now, good luck hope forecast busts low and you get 12" plus Thanks. Changed to snow about a half hour ago. Accumulating quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Rule 969 in the weenie handbook written by Ian. I think that's a Howard/Weather53 rule. I'm not knocking it, just saying that's something he preached, although I'm not sure that he meant for frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think that's a Howard/Weather53 rule. I'm not knocking it, just saying that's something he preached, although I'm not sure that he meant for frontal passages. It is his rule and he always said it, i was just teasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Skies just opened up and the wind was whipping here now just a steady rain here with some wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Skies just opened up and the wind was whipping here now just a steady rain here with some windnot much qpf left for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 not much qpf left for snow What a shocker that is. Snow this season is like wizards winning 5 games this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Neat. Rain just started in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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