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January Obs/Short Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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0.26" of rain today...currently 47, but by this time tomorrow temperature will be falling fast and there should be some snow blowing in the westerly wind. Local TV mets are hyping the change with words like whiteouts, etc...ground should be white by Friday morning at the least.

CRW AFD.....Best dynamic support looks to run from the

coalfields northeast towards ckb. Changeover to snow will be fairly

rapid after 00z from west to east as Arctic air collapses in

quickly. Looking at perhaps an inch of accumulation in the

tri-state area...with 2-4 inches most other locations through 12z

Friday. This snow will likely require advisory issuances.

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looks like 40-45dbz down south about to move in, maybe a 1"+ event areawide. Will need all of this come summer's death ridge, only 2.7" of rain from May15 to August 25 in 2011.

looks like it's going to underperform in the dc/balt area at least

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Periods of heavy rain overnight. Amazing that precip has no trouble at all making into our area provided we are above freezing. 1 degree is fine. Just make sure it is over 32 and we're good to go.

Thinking about tomorrow, likely windy, cold, dry, with bare ground, I think it may be time to just hope for an all out torch. It would be much better than what tomorrow will be.

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LWX zone forecasts issued at 12:30 p.m. have up to an inch of accumulation tonight for Washington and Frederick counties in Md., but little or no snow accumulation for Eastern Allegany, Carroll, and Berkeley County, WV. That's some pinpoint forecasting there.

Someone may be looking for a sharp cutoff.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

156 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-130300-

/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.120113T0400Z-120113T2300Z/

EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-

WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD...

MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE

156 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...

IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND

CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

* WINDS...WESTERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW SQUALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT

VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW

AROUND IN ADDITION TO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BE PREPARED FOR

SNOW-COVERED ROADS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN

OPEN AREAS.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/LASORSA

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Periods of heavy rain overnight. Amazing that precip has no trouble at all making into our area provided we are above freezing AT SOME LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. 1 degree is fine. Just make sure it is over 32 and we're good to go.

Thinking about tomorrow, likely windy, cold, dry, with bare ground, I think it may be time to just hope for an all out torch. It would be much better than what tomorrow will be.

OK, had to edit the above post for the occassional dumba** who might wander in.

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My point and click is the same as yours Trixie - no thunder though

Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 1am, then rain and snow showers likely between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy, with a south wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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Cold air is screaming across KY. Lexington went from 44 and rain to 32 and snow in the last hour with winds gusting in the 40 mph range. Pretty cool that the whole state of KY is under wwa. Some precip is lingering behind the cold air in west TN. Who knows, maybe some will hang on for us.

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Cold air is screaming across KY. Lexington went from 44 and rain to 32 and snow in the last hour with winds gusting in the 40 mph range. Pretty cool that the whole state of KY is under wwa. Some precip is lingering behind the cold air in west TN. Who knows, maybe some will hang on for us.

but for the mts, we'd all get an inch or 2+ I bet

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