WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Since nobody mentioned it, GFS does squeeze out at least .01" of precip (liquid) for points north of DC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I bet you it si because of the snow on the ground. As for accumulating snow, it it's less than an inch, it's usually off my radar as alluded to by Ian go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Since nobody mentioned it, GFS does squeeze out at least .01" of precip (liquid) for points north of DC tonight. This post is a microcosm of our winter, we are mentioning .01" of precip on a model. If we do not get a dusting tonight there will be rioting in here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'd say 60-40? i havent looked at the next cold shot much but i'd tend to think we might beat it still this month if it times right with climo which is still upcoming, tho 17 is pretty cold for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think Wes just made me die a little inside - Though I'm glad he was more optimistic on the long term in the other thread. Reading his posts sometimes is like watching the zipper scene from "There's Something about Mary". I cringe just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This post is a microcosm of our winter, we are mentioning .01" of precip on a model. If we do not get a dusting tonight there will be rioting in here tomorrow. I could see rioting over another Ravens playoff choke but not over a moisture starved swirl of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I could see rioting over another Ravens playoff choke but not over a moisture starved swirl of clouds. Let me guess you are a disgruntled Skins fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Let me guess you are a disgruntled Skins fan. And proud of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 why? forecasting is much more than just looking at a model. the AFD discusses why this will probably be a non-event. anyone who melts down if he doesn't get measurable snow tonight should just be shown the door. im assuming "rioting" was in jest.. this place is not your typical venue to discuss flurries. and like the nws is always right.... i dont think anyone is expecting much if anything from this but what else is there to talk about in the near term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 im assuming "rioting" was in jest.. this place is not your typical venue to discuss flurries. and like the nws is always right.... i dont think anyone is expecting much if anything from this but what else is there to talk about in the near term? SSWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 im assuming "rioting" was in jest.. this place is not your typical venue to discuss flurries. and like the nws is always right.... i dont think anyone is expecting much if anything from this but what else is there to talk about in the near term? Thank the good lord someone realizes i was joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 im assuming "rioting" was in jest.. this place is not your typical venue to discuss flurries. and like the nws is always right.... i dont think anyone is expecting much if anything from this but what else is there to talk about in the near term? No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i dont think anyone is expecting much if anything from this but what else is there to talk about in the near term? It's crazy the reality we are in but a period of relatively widespread mod snow (even with no accum) is a big deal so far this year. At least for us snow starved weenies needing any type of fix we can get our hands on. I guaranty we majority of ma subforum regulars will be running radar loops on their phones all evening waiting for the 25dbz returns to show up over their back yard. Then look out at the streetlights or even put on a jacket and take a stroll while declaring victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's crazy the reality we are in but a period of relatively widespread mod snow (even with no accum) is a big deal so far this year. At least for us snow starved weenies needing any type of fix we can get our hands on. I guaranty we majority of ma subforum regulars will be running radar loops on their phones all evening waiting for the 25dbz returns to show up over their back yard. Then look out at the streetlights or even put on a jacket and take a stroll while declaring victory. Timing couldn't be worse though. I think a lot of people will go to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 WRF-ARW skunks us tonight but the WRF-NMM gives everyone at least 0.01". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I guaranty we majority of ma subforum regulars will be running radar loops on their phones all evening waiting for the 25dbz returns to show up over their back yard. Then look out at the streetlights or even put on a jacket and take a stroll while declaring victory. It's uncanny. Eerie, really, how well you know me. To keep the post legit, it's 25.0°F with a 7mph NNW breeze in Clarksburg. I guess I'll kill some time before the snow starts this evening by updating my sig with the 0.1" observation from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro skunks us as well. Looks like probably downsloping gets us as the wunderground maps have snow in WVA and then a little over DE and the lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 overnight flurries canceled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro skunks us as well. Looks like probably downsloping gets us as the wunderground maps have snow in WVA and then a little over DE and the lower eastern shore. the euro is not likely to pick up on a micro qpf event very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 the euro is not likely to pick up on a micro qpf event very well Why would you say that? Worse than the GFS? Euro has higher resolution and better physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Why would you say that? Worse than the GFS? Euro has higher resolution and better physics. not worse than the gfs i suppose but i'd still think the nam is going to "see" .01" qpf better than either.. tho the nam could also be totally wrong. the euro maps i have dont even show anything below .05" anyway, though i guess it had something with the 0z run according to ji -- i think he as accu euro mos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Ok. I agree the NAM would be superior. The wunderground maps do contour 0.01" liquid and 0.1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Don't know that it matters, but the HRRR seems to be getting a tad better looking for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Radar showing some light returns in Carroll county. Anyone seeing a flurry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Radar showing some light returns in Carroll county. Anyone seeing a flurry? The radar is in clean air mode so it is super sensitive. Probably not reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Got some 20-25dbz returns popping around the oh/ky border with the first 500 ul energy swinging through. The optimistic weenie side of me is saying we see some flakes this evening before the big daddy rolls through after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 overnight flurries canceled? uncancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 18z nam seems to put everything (and its not much) in the first vort around here. i'd still think dc and east has a good shot at flakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 18z nam seems to put everything (and its not much) in the first vort around here. i'd still think dc and east has a good shot at flakes at least. I can't find a single snow ob in OH/WV anywhere.....Is it snowing anywhere right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I can't find a single snow ob in OH/WV anywhere.....Is it snowing anywhere right now? Buffalo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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