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Jan. 2 - 4 Disco/Obs


NavarreDon

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It is snowing east of the mountains.

Well, northern foothills along the sides of the mountains it is. I got a reading of about 35 degrees.

EDIT...Blacksburg just bumped Wilkes to 40% snow up to 1inch???? I seriously doubt it will be that bad.

Leading edge of secondary type 850 mb cold surge now crossing the west

with the coldest air aloft to arrive overnight and last into Tuesday

morning as the 500 mb trough pivots across the region. This combo with

better trajectories from the northwest and deeper cold air should set the

stage for good upslope overnight as model forecast radiosonde observations show quite a

bit of deep relative humidity. Appears best forcing will be over the northwest closer to

the core of coldest 850 mb air where prognosticated quantitative precipitation forecast is highest and

supportive of elevation warning criteria. However will be in the

middle of the left front of the upper jet across the region which in

conjunction with good dendritic growth will make for at least

adisory snowfall elsewhere western slopes and perhaps close to warning in

a few spots...mainly from Mercer city into Ashe and Watauga...near

the Tennessee border. Colder air aloft will also make for decent low level

instability per the low level setup with increasing northwest winds with

height great for banding formation which could lead to locally

higher totals in spots. However since thinking this wont be

widespread enough to prompt warnings elsewhere will hold off for now but

will extend the advisory east to cover Bath...Monroe and Wythe

counties given potential spillover of bands under the deep/strong northwest

flow aloft. Could also see some light accumulations out east of the

New River valley but moreso expecting flurries that could punch out

to the Piedmont through midnight as the Arctic push arrives. Thus upped

probability of precipitation a bit more over the west and extended chances farther east

tonight.

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Temp: 29

Wind Chill: 18

It has been flurring very lightly all day but nothing to write home about. Meanwhile there have been some nice snow squalls in eastern Kentucky which have spilled over into SWVA north of here. If you look to the south there is blue sky but to the north it looks very ominous.

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I'm still waiting to see my first flake here this season. I know a few in Ga, Al, Tn, Ky and the mountains have already. Plus this upslope looks good already, but it's doubtful any flakes will make it here, but a few flakes scattered about east of the mountains tonight and early tomorrow.

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