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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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I think we had about 2 inches here in Peacham but there was a tremendous amount of drifting with the South wind. I drove over to Burlington the afternoon and as soon as I hit Brandon I said out loud "Wait where did winter go?" as there was mostly just bare ground over there even after this week, It looks very wintry here in Peacham- at last. We did not lose much snow today as I don't think we torched nearly as badly as BTV did,

With the lack of a true synoptic snow storm (most have been orographically driven, whether SE upslope or NW upslope), the immediate Champlain Valley has had very little snow (34" at BTV, which is #2 on the All-Time Least amount).

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With the lack of a true synoptic snow storm (most have been orographically driven, whether SE upslope or NW upslope), the immediate Champlain Valley has had very little snow (34" at BTV, which is #2 on the All-Time Least amount).

Yeah its been pretty brutal once you get to about Jonesville on RT 2 or I-89... but especially from French Hill in Williston on 89 (where the Welcome Centers are) down into Burlington proper. My years of living on the waterfront in Burlington at 175ft where fun but as a snow lover that was just about the lowest snowfall spot you could get in the state of VT.

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Maybe some light upslope snow accumulations over the next 36 hours? Tim Kelley from NECN sent me a text at like 5am saying he thought we'd definitely pick up at least a little fluff over the next day or two. Looking at the NWS, it looks like they concur.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SWINGS

OVERHEAD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW/MID

LEVEL MOISTURE ON NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR

SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN

ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. A FEW INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE

HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY DRY OR JUST A FEW SNOW

SHOWERS/FLURRIES IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

And I know you are not supposed to just add these ranges together, but judging by the grids for here at 800ft in town and up near the base area (1,500ft) at least a few inches is possible.

P/C for 800ft has up to 1" today, 1-3" tonight, and 1-2" tomorrow.

P/C for 1,400ft (closest to our base area elevation) has 1-2" today, 1-3" tonight, and 1-3" tomorrow.

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Saw a few flakes last night after frontal passage but it didn't amount to anything.

Warmed up a bit here yesterday reaching the low 40s. The pack settled a couple inches with the extra weight of the dense snow from a couple nights ago. A few freeze/thaws is going to make this stuff pretty durable.

It's always cool to watch this time of year if we get a good solid pack, like we now finally have. Where it's white & deep, it doesn't budge much during the warmer days but if there are any dark surfaces or open areas nearby, you can almost see it receeding right before your eyes.

Looks like that's it for snow for a while but at least we finally have a decent pack here. This week's snowfall most definitely prolonged our ski touring season around here by a couple weeks, I would guess.

I'm feeling one more at least moderate snow event in our future though. Doesn't look to be for at least a week but I do think we'll see one more. Hell, maybe not till April. And I should mention that my only source for this is nothing more than my years of anecdotal experience. ;)

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.16” L.E.

An additional tenth of an inch of snow fell at the house last night in the form of graupel as the colder air from this storm worked its way in, but that’s all there is to note from down here in the Winooski Valley.

We’ve generally been skiing at Stowe since the end of last weekend’s storm, which means we’ve been observing the weather/snow conditions there, but I was at Bolton Valley yesterday so I can provide that update. I headed up to the mountain around 9:30 A.M., at which point the temperature was mid 30s F in the valley (300’ – 500’) and up at the Village (~2,100’) it was right around the freezing mark. It was spitting a little mixed precipitation when I arrived, but there wasn’t really much of significance that appeared to affect the snow surfaces. They’d received about an inch of new snow as I reported yesterday morning. It was certainly below freezing on most of the mountain up through the summit areas in the 3,100’ – 3,200’ range, but the freezing level was starting to climb as the morning wore on. Temperatures were kept low by the presence of clouds (some low and covering the top 1/3 of the mountain) but once the clouds started to break away and the sun came out, freezing levels shot right up past the summits. It was beautiful with the sun out, but the powder quickly started to get thick and the groomed slopes a bit sticky, so that was a double-edged sword in that regard. There were some clouds moving in and out during the midday period – I had skinned up to the top of the Wilderness area since the lift wasn’t running, and got to hang out there at 3,000’ and watch one round of clouds come crashing into the area, so that was pretty cool. I added a couple of shots from the yesterday near the Vista Summit:

03MAR12A.jpg

03MAR12B.jpg

Our current valley point forecast calls for as much as 3-5 inches of snow through tomorrow with the upper level trough coming into the area, and it seems to be upslope enhanced as the flow goes northwest. I see a fairly similar 3-6 inches in the Mt. Mansfield forecast as well though, so I suspect the snowfall could be hit or miss in the mountain valleys.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 34.2 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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With the lack of a true synoptic snow storm (most have been orographically driven, whether SE upslope or NW upslope), the immediate Champlain Valley has had very little snow (34" at BTV, which is #2 on the All-Time Least amount).

With February complete, I’ve been meaning to pass along some monthly snowfall data, and this is a good lead in. I haven’t yet put up a plot of how the January snowfall came in at this location, so I’ve added it below. It was certainly on the low side, but it ended up higher than either ‘06-‘07 or ‘07-‘08, and not all that far behind ‘09-‘10, so certainly not bottom of the barrel:

0612januarysnowfall.jpg

The first two thirds of February this season were very slow in terms of snowfall, but the storms in the last third of the month, especially last weekend’s big one that delivered almost two feet, were a good shot of redemption. February still came in as the lowest of the past six for snowfall, but it ended up not being quite the huge outlier that it might have been if the month continued the way it was going:

0612februarysnowfall.jpg

Seasonally, we’re running neck and neck with ‘06-‘07 now thanks to last weekend’s big storm, but ‘06-‘07 will take a two-foot leap mid month thanks to the 2007 St. Patrick’s Day storm. And as I mentioned before, only about half the average snowfall from this point on in the season would see ’11-’12 topping ‘09-‘10, which was a very meager season for snowfall because of the southern storm track. So climatologically, the seasonal snowfall numbers are definitely not as aberrant out here in the mountains as they are in the Champlain Valley.

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Has not stopped snowing today... 1-2" now across the mountain.

Nice, Im heading up to Stowe tonight and skiing tomorrow. Looks like you could pick up 3 to 6 inches of upslope over the next 36 hours. How did the mountain fair with the warmup yesterday? Did it ice up at all? Can't wait to get there, definitely my favorite place in New England!

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Has not stopped snowing today... 1-2" now across the mountain.

Just looked outside and noticed some light snow starting to fall here in Barre. Woke up to bright sunshine around 7:30 and even made it up to 38°before the clouds started rolling in. Down to 34° now.

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Nice, Im heading up to Stowe tonight and skiing tomorrow. Looks like you could pick up 3 to 6 inches of upslope over the next 36 hours. How did the mountain fair with the warmup yesterday? Did it ice up at all? Can't wait to get there, definitely my favorite place in New England!

The warm-up definitely took conditions down a notch but they are still very good. We picked up a solid 1-2", maybe more like 3" up top but I can't say until I measure up there tomorrow morning. There was about 1.5" in the base area when I left. The skiing was improving all day.

The groomed trails are in fine shape, packed powder mixed in with loose granular. The sun and warmth yesterday did melt the top layer which then froze but its a very thin layer. The groomers were easily able to chop that up and get to the powdery snow that remains under the crust... so it mixed in well. I'd assume tomorrow will be even better on the groomers once this new snow gets mixed in.

The natural snow terrain is skiing like classic spring conditions where it got warm and sunny the day before and then hardened up a bit overnight. Its not bulletproof by any means (ski patrol still has all the headwalls open so you know its skiable and not life threatening crust, haha) but it is a step down from the powder conditions we had over the past week to 10 days. More like good eastern skiing instead of western deep unconsolidated snow, haha.

Radar still looks promising for some snow tonight and tomorrow so we'll see how much we can add.

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So sick. Even still there are big puffy dendrites falling, albeit not as heavy as earlier (probably 1/2" per hour stuff). Maybe we crack 3" here?

Yeah that front is moving so slowly and it takes forever for the band to move out of the area. You may jackpot out of this, haha. BTV was right though that there's some weak deformation from the off-shore low that's sort of stalling a band of snow right across the center of their forecast area.

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Yeah that front is moving so slowly and it takes forever for the band to move out of the area. You may jackpot out of this, haha. BTV was right though that there's some weak deformation from the off-shore low that's sort of stalling a band of snow right across the center of their forecast area.

Yeah I've been in Rutland for LSC's conference since Friday so I haven't looked at much, but man did it come down for the last 2 hours. 2.5" new and I think it's just about done now. With that low of the coast and the front sagging south, you'd think there'd be some enhanced precip, but the HRRR actually broke alot of the precip up this AM during our wx briefing so I didn't pay close attention, until I was driving on 91 near St. J and saw an ominous t-storm looking cloud with a wall of white and me and my buddy (a met major) looked at each other, smiled, and said 'oh sh*t' in unison hahaha

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It will be interesting to see if the hi-res models are correct for tonight on the Maine coast. The HRRR continues to advertise banded snow near or just north of Portland through early morning once this trough sags south. I know it likes to go overboard with the snowfall amounts, but it's showing pixels of 4-6" near Sebago Lake. To some extent the NAM also tries to really ramp up the moisture convergence in the low levels near the coast tonight.

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