OceanStWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thanks, pretty much what I was getting at but you put it in much better words. And yeah, the Whites shadow bigtime in this kind of set up from Woodsville on up, along the valley floors. It's amazing how little snow places like Lancaster get a lot of times. Sometimes it's really easy in busy situations like this to forget about those local effects. Sometimes you get so bogged down you forget that the 2D map you're working on isn't actually 2D in real life. And to some extent we just don't have the resolution to pick up all those valleys. We can get the basic upslope/downslope regions fairly well, both northwest and southeast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I would if it was mine or had I been there, but these are my off days. Just enjoying things from home. My guess is gradients will start getting tightened up tonight as we recieve more reports about where it is and isn't accumulating so far. There will definitely be some shadowing in the Whites. But if you are to believe the NAM and it's 70 kt LLJ, there will be significant upslope enhancement on the SE sides tomorrow morning. Right but won't that lead to significant downslope as well toward Littleton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Right but won't that lead to significant downslope as well toward Littleton? It definitely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 18z GFS looks like it wants to go to town up here for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 18z GFS looks like it wants to go to town up here for wave 2 Bring it! Riding this wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It definitely will. Okay just checking lol. My area is tough unless we can get the flow a little more NE'erly...going 4-6" with less toward Littleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Okay just checking lol. My area is tough unless we can get the flow a little more NE'erly...going 4-6" with less toward Littleton. It's a very tough area to get nice and neat snow amounts for. The terrain really throws things off because you don't get a nice even blanket of QPF across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Looks like I'm on the edge of decent snow with the current system but wondering if we can salvage the Saturday system now as well. Below is the discussion from CAR regarding it. A hundred mile push to the east might do the trick. 18Z GFS seems to start the trend, a tiny bit anyway. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS W/THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUING TO BE WARMER WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWING A COOLER SCENARIO W/A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THE 12 OPERATIONAL GFS DOES POINT TO THIS AND 4 OUT OF 10 INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE GFS SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 For Saturday- trend is friend? Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Maybe an inch here so far. Ugly system. If I didn't have to go to work, I'd be going back to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like maybe the places getting less out of this system in far NE Maine get lucky on Saturday? GFS/NAM/EC all continued to trend cooler. Euro had an advisory event for parts of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serbiesnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Good snow coverage now here in the NEk, woke up to .7 inch, but its really picked up now, visibility is less than 200 yards, and its definitly adding up now. Im in a shadow area, so if its doing this well here, its probably cranking south of me. Trails were great yesterday, cant wait to hit them today!! temp staedy at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Had 1.8 inches new in Peacham as I headed out about 7:30. The roads were pretty bad on the way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Maybe an inch here so far. Ugly system. If I didn't have to go to work, I'd be going back to bed... Most data had 1-2" here by morning today. As I said, its a long azz duration storm with low rates...which is why I doubted gyx's map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's snowing nicely here on the UVM campus in Burlington this morning, with big flakes up to ~1" in diameter. The snowfall is steady, but not super intense; visibilities seem to be in the ½ to 1 mile range. Unlike what I saw in Richmond this morning, it was actually snowing when I arrived here in Burlington around 6:45 A.M., and there’s ½-1” of new snow down now. I’ve also added in my 6:00 A.M. snow/liquid observations from Waterbury here in the NNE thread; that main storm thread moves so quickly that it’s hard to follow the NNE observations: 6:00 A.M. Waterbury event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.12” L.E. Snow started up at the house at ~8:45 P.M. yesterday evening, but it fell at a fairly slow pace overnight. Flakes have often been small, with larger ones at times, so the snow density came in at a fairly synoptic 8.6% H2O (11.7 to 1). Passing through Richmond this morning, it doesn’t appear as though they got any snow from this event, but farther east in Williston near the I-89 rest area it was snowing decently with accumulation on the ground. Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 1.4 inches New Liquid: 0.12 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7 Snow Density: 8.6% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like maybe the places getting less out of this system in far NE Maine get lucky on Saturday? GFS/NAM/EC all continued to trend cooler. Euro had an advisory event for parts of Maine. Calling for snow Friday night with snow/sleet Saturday changing to rain late in the day maybe we can salvage some of whats falling today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Calling for snow Friday night with snow/sleet Saturday changing to rain late in the day maybe we can salvage some of whats falling today NAM Bufkit shows 1.7" for LEW then over to plain rain but its trending colder so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I’ve added the north to south listing of available overnight snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas below. The trend of increasing totals as of this morning is quite visible, with the Northern Vermont ski areas typically picking up under a half foot, and the Southern Vermont Ski Areas getting close to a foot: Jay Peak: 4” Burke: 5” Smuggler’s Notch: 2” Stowe: 4” Bolton Valley: 2” Mad River Glen: 2” Sugarbush: 3” Middlebury: 4” Suicide Six: 6” Pico: 5” Killington: 5” Okemo: 9” Bromley: 10” Magic Mountain: 12” Stratton: 8” Mount Snow: 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm not working today... but just checked and we are around 4.5" at the 3,000ft snow board as of 10:45am... probably now over 5" as it is dumping. Very fluffy snow. Perfect snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm not working today... but just checked and we are around 4.5" at the 3,000ft snow board as of 10:45am... probably now over 5" as it is dumping. Very fluffy snow. Perfect snow growth. Skiers I trust confirm about 4-6 spread around the top of the hill. Thinking Stowe lands in the 8-10 range pretty easily. Awesome. Saturday looks meh. Not a total washout but def. going to wet the pack and freeze it up. Oh well. See if that helps survive the warm up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 2.5" at lsc, terrible snow growth, shadowed as expected. Overall my forecast looks good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I think after round 1 and 2 are all said and done, you may be a bit light on the New Hampshire and Eastern VT areas...I'd take your totals and boost them for Lyndonville, St. J, Montpelier, Gorham and Berlin by 30% or so. Told ya shadowing would occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Skiers I trust confirm about 4-6 spread around the top of the hill. Thinking Stowe lands in the 8-10 range pretty easily. Awesome. Saturday looks meh. Not a total washout but def. going to wet the pack and freeze it up. Oh well. See if that helps survive the warm up next week. This is "meh"??? Saturday: Rain showers before 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. High near 41. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 60 to 65 mph decreasing to between 30 and 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. looks like rain and windholds. the former I can deal with. The latter, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Calling for snow Friday night with snow/sleet Saturday changing to rain late in the day maybe we can salvage some of whats falling today Only to lose it before midmonth, if 12z gfs can be believed - about 5 days of highs 50s-60s and lows 40s, followed by a significant rainstorm. Can you say, "ice jam flooding?" Back to -SN with tiny flakes here at 1:40. It's been switching back/forth between this and mod snow with decent dendrites. Maybe up to 4" new, breezy, and upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yea "meh." Frankly big numbers on the computer generated fcst don't really get me going. I'm sure the prefrontal south winds will whip across the upper elevations of the greens pretty hard. But that's sorta what happens in winter. Drop off the crest and get into the woods and it becomes a lot more managable. the rest of "meh" related to the not really large amounts of rain. .25 to .5 of an inch might not even really be enough to get the snowpack isothermal and lock it all up till may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Only to lose it before midmonth, if 12z gfs can be believed - about 5 days of highs 50s-60s and lows 40s, followed by a significant rainstorm. Can you say, "ice jam flooding?" Back to -SN with tiny flakes here at 1:40. It's been switching back/forth between this and mod snow with decent dendrites. Maybe up to 4" new, breezy, and upper teens. Very torch after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NAM Bufkit shows 1.7" for LEW then over to plain rain but its trending colder so who knows. I am not real optimistic on Saturday's event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yea "meh." Frankly big numbers on the computer generated fcst don't really get me going. I'm sure the prefrontal south winds will whip across the upper elevations of the greens pretty hard. But that's sorta what happens in winter. Drop off the crest and get into the woods and it becomes a lot more managable. the rest of "meh" related to the not really large amounts of rain. .25 to .5 of an inch might not even really be enough to get the snowpack isothermal and lock it all up till may. Thanks. those big wind numbers scare me vis a vis wind holds on the lifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Thanks. those big wind numbers scare me vis a vis wind holds on the lifts. Skins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Skins. I hear ya brother and I've actually been meaning to try that. But for saturday, my son is having 3 friends up and I'd hate to see them shut out from skiing, and shudder to think of what they will do as an alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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